Which Is It? January 19, 2012
Tyler Brown’s three pointer with a one second left falls for Illinois State. Julian Welch makes both free throws with 14 seconds left to give Minnesota a two possesion lead. Meyers Leonard doesn’t block Drew Crawford’s shot and Northwestern wins at the buzzer. Just those three things – three times the ball is hanging on the air and if it goes in we lose – and we’d be 12-6 (2-3) and headed for another dance with the bubble.
Instead, Jerry Palm says we’re a 2 seed. Um, what?
And I didn’t even mention the fact that we trailed St. Bonaventure 39-30 with 5:00 left. Or that we were tied with Cornell with 1:30 remaining (at home). Or that we were tied with Nebraska with 1:00 remaining (at home). If we just go 50/50 in our close games, we’re 12-6 or maybe even 11-7. Instead, we’re 15-3, ranked, and, according to some bracketologists, on our way to a two seed.
What?
In 2009/10, I documented all of our close losses. I believe I played the opposite angle – 4 shots go in and we’re headed for a 3 seed and not the bubble. So I fully realize that this very thin line is what separates the great from the good. Win the close ones, gain confidence, and it builds upon itself. Lose the close ones, and you end up playing at Stony Brook in the first round of the NIT because the circus is in town.
So will this build upon itself? Well, the schedule certainly sets up that way. With our next 5 games (at Penn State, Wisconsin, at Minnesota, Michigan State, Northwestern), another 4-1 stretch is possible. I, for one, would very much enjoy going into our February 9th game at Indiana still sitting in first place in the Big Ten at 8-2. But I can also see us going into that game 5-5 because our late-game heroics dried up and we started to tailspin. This is my conundrum. We’re either much better than I even realize or the luckiest team in NCAA basketball.
Which means the two sides of my personal Jekyll/Hyde Illini personality appears. The pessimistic Illini fan in me says we all know what’s happening tonight - Penn State wins, probably at the buzzer, likely by some walkon’s banked-in three pointer. The Kool-Aid Illini fanatic in me says we have a better chance than any other B1G team at the Big Ten title and a 1-seed. WHAT? Yeah, a 1-seed.
OK – we’re not getting a 1-seed. That’s ridiculous. Yes, the Big Ten is strong, so the Big Ten champ probably gets a 1-seed. But the Big Ten is strong – no chance we emerge unscathed. 10-8 in conference is much more likely than 15-3.
Which puts me in a weird place. I have no idea how to feel about the game tonight. And I honestly have no idea where this season will end up. At this point last year, especially after the loss at Indiana, we pretty much knew where the season was headed. Same in 2009/10 – we knew by mid-to-late January that we were headed for a bubbly mess.
This year? No clue. We might spiral down to the bubble. We might surge to a 2-seed. We might go 8-10 in the Big Ten and still make the tourney. We might win the Big Ten.
OK, we’re not winning the Big Ten. That’s ridiculous. Or is it? Yes, ridiculous. Or maybe not.
Not sure the B1G champ definitely gets a 1 seed. If someone wins it by a couple of games, sure. More likely if it’s tOSU or MSU, too. But Syracuse has one of those 1 seeds just about locked up. Baylor/Kansas probably gets one, maybe two? Kentucky probably rolls through the SEC and has a good chance to get one. And then there’s Duke/UNC though neither really looks the part I wouldn’t count them out.
Oh, and no way we win the league, so it’s a moot point in our case.
“Lose the close ones, and you end up playing at Stony Brook in the first round of the NIT because the circus is in town.”
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Can I tell you how much I love that this is a factual thing that actually happened? I *LOVE* that this is a factual thing that actually happened!
This post reminds me so much of your “Will Lucy Hold the Football?”
Deep down you knew the team had issues that were masked by a 6-0 start. Similarly, you’ve now pointed out how close we are to a strikingly different record in hoops with just a few possessions having negative outcomes. God bless Jerry Palm, but a #2 seed is frankly just outrageous.
No doubt the Webber bashers are just waiting for this team to lay an egg (which they will like North Carolina just did) so they can fire away again in earnest. I’m shaking out already that I’m praying ML stays another year, and with continued improvement by JB and a more comfortable TA at point, we will be very dangerous in 12 months.
I could not agree more. Just like the BCS ratings ignoring point spread, ignoring point spread in basketball rankings and seedings is ridiculous. Say we beat Minnesota by 1 in Minny… We get 100% credit for 2-0 and they take a 100% hit for 0-2, when the reality is that the two teams are more or less equal and any matchup of the two teams is more or less a tossup. Minnesota is just a hypothetical example, I actually think we are the better team. But they are a good example. In early B1G play, they have proved they can play with the best in the league but yet are at the bottom of standings/rankings.
Well, Palm does issue a disclaimer that this is based “if the tournament started today.” But even so, I’d like to know if he has the Cubs winning the NL wildcard this year.
If MN has Trevor M. against us, we’re toast. If ML, Superman and BP(4)3 don’t emerge at various times, we’re toast. Too many IFs. I’d rather just enjoy this sweet ride (so far), and hope we run off 4 of the next 5.