Next to hiking in the mountains with my wife and looking at gif images of a confused Pat Fitzgerald (click on it – no, seriously, click on it), my favorite thing to do in the world is to put together an Illini football depth chart.  I love it so much that I go three-deep.  Because it’s one more than two.

With signing day coming up next Wednesday, I thought I might go through the three-deep again to see if our current class is lining up with our future needs.  I’m not gonna lie – Terry Hawthorne, Michael Buchanan, and Akeem Spence flirting with the NFL but returning to school makes this three-deep much more attractive.

I have to make a few guesses with this depth chart.  We don’t really know the schemes that Gonzales/Beatty and Banks will run, so I really don’t know if I should put down four wide receivers or two tight ends.  So I’ll try to cover all positions on offense (except for fullback), and I’ll return us to a basic 4-3 defense with no bandits or Busseybackers.  I’m also taking out the weak/strong offensive line and going back to having a left tackle and a right tackle.

QB: Nathan Scheelhaase (JR) / Reilly O’Toole (SO) / Chase Haslett (rs-FR)
RB: Donovonn Young (SO) / Josh Ferguson (rs-FR) / Ean Days (SO)
TE: Evan Wilson (JR) / Jon Davis (SO) / Justin Lattimore (JR) / Matt LaCosse (SO)
LT: Simon Cvijanovic (rs-SO) / Patrick Flavin (rs-FR) / Chris Boles (rs-FR)
LG: Hugh Thornton (SR) / Tyler Sands (SR) / Ted Karras (rs-FR)
C: Graham Pocic (SR) / Jake Feldmeyer (JR) / Tony Durkin (rs-FR)
RG: Alex Hill (rs-SO) / Shawn Afryl (rs-SO) / Kevin Griffin (rs-SO walkon)
RT: Michael Heitz (rs-SO) / Corey Lewis (SR) / Scott McDowell (rs-FR)
WR1: Darius Millines (JR) / Jeremy Whitlow (rs-FR) / Kenny Knight (rs-FR)
WR2: Spencer Harris (JR) / Jordan Frysinger (rs-FR) / Fritz Rock (rs-SO)
WR3: Ryan Lankford (JR) / Miles Osei (JR) / Jake Kumerow (SO-walkon)

DE: Michael Buchanan (SR) / Justin Staples (SR) / Brandon Denmark (JR)
DT: Glenn Foster (SR) / Jake Howe (rs-SO) / Chris O’Connor (rs-FR)
DT: Akeem Spence (JR) / Austin Teitsma (rs-SO) / John Valentine (rs-FR walkon)
DE: Tim Kynard (JR) / DJ Woods (rs-SO) / Kenny Nelson (rs-FR)
WLB: Houston Bates (rs-SO) / Henry Dickinson (SO) / Beau Sullivan (JR walkon)
MLB: Jonathan Brown (JR) / Ralph Cooper (SO) / Alex Porter (SO walkon)
SLB: Ashante Williams (SR) / Earnest Thomas (rs-SO) / Zephaniah Grimes (rs-FR)
CB: Terry Hawthorne (SR) / Eaton Spence (rs-FR) / Kaeman Mitchell (JR walkon)
FS: Steve Hull (JR) / Ben Mathis (JR-walkon) / Austin Abner (rs-FR walkon)
SS: Supo Sanni (SR) / Patrick Nixon-Youman (SR) / Nick North (rs-FR)
CB: Justin Green (SR) / Valdon Cooper (SO) / Jack Ramsey (SR)

K: Taylor Zalewski (rs-FR) / Nick Immekus (rs-SO) / Brennen Van Mieghem (rs-FR)
P: Justin DuVernois (SO) / Brad Janitz (rs-SO) / Garrett Stroup (rs-FR)

So next year looks very defense-y.  2013 looks very offense-y.  And 2014 looks very scary.

With Hawthorne, Buchanan, and Spence back, Tim Banks has a lot to work with next year.  The loss of Mercilus, Thomas, Wilson, and Henry will be large – I have no idea who will be the nickel corner next year (Jack Ramsey?) – but there are some legitimate stars in Jonathan Brown, Terry Hawthorne, Michael Buchanan, and Akeem Spence.  Get a few big senior years from Justin Green and Glenn Foster and maybe this defense won’t take that large of a step back.

But in 2013, from this view, yikes.  Gone are Buchanan, Foster, Williams, Hawthorne, Sanni, Green, and PNY, with a good chance Akeem Spence declares early and also the possibility of Jonathan Brown leaves. Good luck, Tim Banks.

The good news is, the offense should be solid in 2013.  Next year we’ll likely only have 2 seniors contributing – Hugh Thornton and Graham Pocic.  Every other position – even going 4 deep at tailback and 6 deep at receiver – there are no seniors.  What we see next year is basically what we’ll see in 2013.

But in 2014, from this view, yikes.  We’ll lose almost all of our passing game (Scheelhaase and possibly his top 4 targets) and maybe a few more offensive linemen.  Reilly O’Toole will have to develop a rapport with a whole new crop of receivers.

Now, at this point I realize the ridiculousness of projecting the 2014 team.  60% of those players aren’t even on the roster yet.  But that’s why I’m doing this.  I’m trying to find our needs in a few years.  Football recruiting isn’t about next year – it’s about recruiting for 2-3 seasons from now.  What are our needs then?  In order:

1. Secondary.  After next season, we’ll have 4 scholarship players in the secondary: Steve Hull, Valdon Cooper, Eaton Spence, and Nick North.  We should have 8 or 9.
2. Defensive Line.  Defensive Tackle more than Defensive End, but we need both.
3. Running Back.  No seniors, no juniors.  At tailback right now we have Donovonn Young, Josh Ferguson, and converted safety Ean Days.  We should have 5 or 6 on the roster.
4. Offensive Tackle.  We have a lot of guard-and-center types, but I only see 4 true tackles.  I’d like to see two more.

So how does the current class break down?

QB – 0
RB – 2
OL – 3 (2 OG/C, 1 OT)
TE – 0
WR – 3
DE – 0
DT – 2
LB – 2
CB – 1
S – 2
K – 1

Combine those two lists, and here’s where it leaves us: with issues defending the pass.  In a few years we’ll be woefully short at defensive end, cornerback, and safety. We’ve spent a lot of time recruiting bandits (undersized defensive ends that can also line up on a slot receiver like Brandon Denmark and Darrius Caldwell), and now we’ll be asking them to play more of a traditional defensive end role.

On offense, we’ve addressed the tailback situation (although we’ll need two more tailbacks next year), but I still feel we’re short at offensive tackle.  And what happens at receiver after the Millines/Lankford/Harris trio graduates?  One more thing – we’ll need a QB in next year’s class who can come in and understudy for a few years.

So in the next 5 days, I’d sure love to close on a few defensive linemen (I’m looking at you, Vincent Valentine) and maybe another cornerback (hi there, Sean Draper).  And next year, a QB, a few offensive tackles, a stud receiver, a monster defensive end, two athletic corners, and a ballhawking safety are desired, nay, required.  It’s only the most important recruiting class of your career – no pressure, Coach Beckman.

You probably heard that Jereme Richmond received probation for his gun charge on Monday.  As part of the plea deal, the judge dropped the aggravated battery charge against him.  Richmond was sentence to 18 months on probation and 200 hours of community service.

Hopefully, this is the end to Richmond’s downward spiral.  In 2011, he left the team for a few days in January, left school to declare for the NBA in April, (went undrafted in June), was arrested in August, and tested positive for marijuana while out on bond in October.  A kid who looked like a lock for NBA stardom as a high school freshman now must work his way in through the D-league or Europe.

I really don’t want to turn this into a “stay in school, kids!” post.  While it’s true he declared for the draft too early, it’s clear that Jereme Richmond’s issues extend beyond basketball.  I really feel for the kid.  There’s so much pressure on a child that gets named a top-20 player nationally as a high school freshman.  You’re 14 or 15 years old and everyone has already decided that if you’re not in the NBA by age 20, you will have failed.  Add to that the anger issues that led to his dismissal from his high school team (and a rumored fight with a teammate last year), and it’s a structure that’s set up to fail.  I hope he gets the help he needs as he tries to make a run at his dream through the back door.

But I’m still left to wonder – what if he had stayed?  What if he never declared for the NBA and stayed in school? What if he had worked through his issues? What if the structure of college basketball had helped him turn things around last summer?  Is he the piece that’s missing?

I have a friend who certainly thinks so.  He’s my most Weber-loving friend, and all season he’s been pointing to the loss of Richmond as the reason for certain losses.  He staunchly maintains that with Richmond in the starting lineup, we would have beaten Missouri, Penn State, and now Wisconsin.  Bring Richmond back, put him at the 4, and in his eyes, we’re 18-2.

I tend to dismiss a lot of what this friend says of late – he honestly can’t see anything but an “unfair campaign to run Bruce Weber out of town”.  He sees the world through “Weber can’t catch a break” glasses and refuses to even acknowledge that Weber’s seat is the slightest bit warm.  There’s always a reason (or excuse) why we’re underperforming, and I tend to ignore his emails more than I respond.

But today, I considered his Excuse Du Jour:  If Richmond stays, we’re 18-2 and headed for a top-4 seed.  Is my friend… correct?

On one hand, his case certainly has merit.  This is a McDonald’s All American kid with a year of experience who would help in some of the areas we lack, namely offensive rebounding.  Give Jereme a few put-backs every game, give us a legitimate frontcourt option next to Meyers – remember how well Jereme understood the art of the up-fake? – and this team would have a serious second option down low.  Add to that Jereme’s passing ability and ballhandling skills (he could play the point in a pinch), and it’s hard to see us losing at Penn State with him in the lineup.

On the other hand, it really isn’t hard to see us losing to Penn State with him in the lineup.  Would Jereme Richmond really help when we’re needlessly passing the ball around the perimeter waiting for something to open up that’s just not there?  I’m really not sure if personnel is the issue at this point.  Myke Henry can play a pretty solid flashing 3/4 against a zone, but he doesn’t get to play because he struggles on defense.  Would having a talented 4 who could play on the wing or down low really help us when we’re folding up shop while Purdue goes on a massive run?  Many of the issues in our losses have been mental, and I’m not sure Jereme Richmond’s instability would really help in that regard.

So which is it?  I vote no.  As in no – we’d probably still be 15-5 with Jereme Richmond in the lineup.  The main reason: I spent 90% of the breakdown above talking about offense.  Our coaches spend 90% of the time in practice coaching defense.  And with Jereme’s mental lapses on D last year, I’m not sure he’d prevent the easy looks and offensive putbacks that killed us in games like Purdue and UNLV.  It would be nice to have another (athletic) option on D, but I’m not sure one player could fix our faults.

What’s that?  Our coaches spending “90% of the time in practice coaching defense” sounds preposterous? Hey, those aren’t my words.  Here’s what beat writer extraordinaire (and I mean that – he rocks) Paul Klee had to say in this IlliniHQ podcast:

The mentality of this staff is defensive minded, 85-90 per–whatever you want to put it–that’s the percentage of time they spend on defense, and that’s what their belief is. They want to muddy it up.

There.  There’s my answer.  My answer is no – Jereme Richmond would not improve this team right now (at least not to the point of 18-2).  He would simply be one more player in practice going through defensive drills over and over.  And while having an athletic wing forward would probably improve our defense, and the offensive putbacks he would provide might improve our offense, I believe the struggles of Brandon Paul and Meyers Leonard would be his struggles, too.  Sometimes, talent just can’t overcome a hesitant offense, a short bench, and a team that isn’t meshing with the coach.  We’re 6 times more talented than Penn State – I’m not sure pushing us to 7 times more talented would be enough to pull out a victory.

So there’s my answer, Michael, you ubiquitous strawman of Weber defense.  I think our problems extend beyond talent.  We have 7 RSCI top-100 players on this roster – I’m not sure an 8th would really make much of a difference.

And sorry for burying the lede.  Here – I’ll close with it.

85-90% OF PRACTICE TIME ON DEFENSE ZOMGWTFBBQ

I decided to do another Random post. I should dedicate an entire post to the basketball game yesterday, but I don’t want to. It would simply be the same old story – boy meets basketball team, boy loses basketball team, boy wonders aloud why basketball coach calls a timeout after we gain momentum.

So, random football and basketball stuff:

Black….Cat..Black….Cat

It’s no secret that I’m a huge Terry Hawthorne fan. In fact, the very first words of the very first (legitimate) post here at ALE compared Terry Hawthorne to Deron Williams. No, really.

I get a Deron Williams vibe from Hawthorne. Part of a tandem of top recruits at his school, all the way until the end of his senior season the other guy was hyped more, and near the end articles like “you know, Terry Hawthorne might be the best player in the entire Midwest” start popping up.

That summer, before he played a single snap, I suggested insisted that he should return every kick and punt for the next 4 years. And, using his high school nickname, I even said the following:

When Terry Hawthorne drops back to return a kickoff against ISU in 53 days, I want the scoreboard to show the intro to the Janet Jackson “Black Cat” video as the crowd begins to chant “Black……..Cat..Black……..Cat”. Then cue the wildcat growl, then the music, and watch the stands come alive as the guitar riff wails. Hawthorne plays some air guitar in the south endzone, pyrotechnics blast from the ends of the goal posts, the horseshoe erupts, and as the kick sails in the air towards Black Cat, you’ll see me dancing in the aisle of section 122 like the guy in the polka-dot shirt at the 1:23 mark.

WHY HAS THIS NOT HAPPENED YET?? Well, I guess I can tell you why it hasn’t happened yet: An injury as a freshman prevented him from finding the field until October (with no kick returns). Another injury as a sophomore gave Jack Ramsey the punt return job. And this year, well, this year Ron Zook insisted on giving the punt return job to Ryan Lankford. WORTH NOTING HERE: We had 39 punt return yards in the 12 regular season games, and then Hawthorne had 31 yards in the Hunger Bowl.

This is not to disparage Ryan Lankford. I’m certain he’ll do a fine job in 2013. But this fall, it’s Black Cat time. (By the way, the first time I interviewed Terry Hawthorne I asked him if he liked the nickname – he loves it. Another aside – in an interview I was unable to post right after the KFHB I told Jonathan Brown that I had started the #badnewsbrown hashtag – he also loves it. He then told me has very high goals for himself next year. And then he gave me a hug. Cool story, Hansel.)

Where was I? Yes – Black Cat and Bad News Brown. That’s your 2012 Illini defense. I hereby set the expectations for both players at First Team All Big Ten. And I want Black Cat returning every single punt and kickoff. With music. And pyrotechnics.

It Was So Wisconsiny Of Them

It’s amazing how quickly I can hate a Wisconsin player these days. I mean, it took me 93 seconds to hate Ben Brust. And I already have all of this built-up Gasser hate from last year, which, combined with my Bruesewitz hate, makes my head hurt. And if Jordan Taylor wasn’t so awesome and ice cold assassin-y, I’d hate him too.

So to lose a game like that yesterday, well, that wasn’t good for my blood pressure. It’s almost impossible for me to watch the entire Wisconsin bench erupt after a made three pointer in Assembly Hall. It’s like all the kids you couldn’t stand in high school, all gathered together mocking you. I wanted to throw something at the screen.

Less than a week ago, I suggested that we could go 4-1 through the @PSU, Wisconsin, @Minnesota, MSU, NW portion of our schedule and find ourselves still in first place when we head to Indiana. Now that we’ve lost the first two of those, I’m seeing 2-3. And after that, we’re hoping for .500 the rest of the way (we have to go to Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio State in the final 8 games). Something tells me Jerry Palm’s 2-seed projection was a bit of a reach.

And that’s all I have to say about that.

Get Out Of ALE Free Card

Here at A Lion Eye Inc, from time to time, we hand out free passes. And Tim Beckman will receive one for the 2012 Illini recruiting class.

Let’s be honest here – it’s probably going to be ranked as the worst class in the Big Ten. It was ranked second to last when Beckman took over, and the only 4-star recruit (linebacker Keith Brown) has since decommitted and verballed to Louisville.

With limited time (and limited scholarships), Beckman and his new staff are behind the 8-ball trying to put this class together. It’s gone about as good as you could hope in the last few weeks, gaining commitments from linebacker TJ Neal (who once listed Nebraska as his favorite and also had offers from Auburn and Florida) and defensive tackle Teko Powell (who had offers from Florida and Wisconsin and Florida State and others). But kids like that are few and far between in January, so it appears that Beckman is concentrating on kids he was recruiting to Toledo that he feels could play in the Big Ten. This includes linebacker Mason Monheim (he was down to Toledo and Illinois I believe, so Toledo’s coach taking the Illinois job made his decision a no-brainer), wide receiver Justin Hardee, running back (defensive back?) Devin Church, and cornerback Javaris Little (who visited Toledo the weekend after Beckman left for Illinois, visited Illinois this weekend, and picked the Illini yesterday).

But in the recruiting battle, we have to do better than “guys Beckman was recruiting to Toledo”. This is the Big Ten, and the way the upper echelon is recruiting, we’ll be in big trouble if we don’t step it up.

The good news: I think Beckman steps it up. Given the number of talented in-state players next year and the staff Beckman put together, I think we can pull in a top-25 class in 2013. If not, we’ll be in big trouble, talent-wise. So 2013 needs to be a monster class.

2012 does too, but Beckman gets a free pass. Just this once.

I’ve mentioned this before, but I want to talk it out again.  I kind of don’t get the Weber debate.

We all want to win, right?  We’re somewhere between the 12th and 14th most successful college basketball program in history, depending on which metric you use.  And we consider ourselves a basketball school, so I think we can all agree that we expect Sweet 16′s on a regular basis.  We’re top-5 nationally in fertile recruiting grounds, and I don’t think we’ve dropped out of the top 12 in attendance figures in a long time, so the elements are all there for a successful basketball program.

That’s the baseline – we all want to win.  So why do some people get angry when you suggest we make a coaching change?

Nine years is a long time.  In that time, Bruce Weber took us to the Final Four.  Hey, awesome.  Had Luther’s three fallen, I think we win.  Too bad it didn’t fall.

Now, we’re in a funk, which is probably a 5-6 year funk, and we can’t seem to get out of it.  We just lost our third straight game at Penn State.  We beat a top-5 team and then stub our toe against the worst team in the league.  We just can’t escape the middle of the pack of the Big Ten.

And the product on the court is messed up, too.  We had 2 fast break points tonight (against the worst team in the league).  We drew up a final play and couldn’t get a shot to hit the rim for what seems like the 9th consecutive time.  I was thinking in the second half – when was the last time I exclaimed “oh nice pass” when someone found an open Joseph Bertrand or Tyler Griffey under the hoop for two.  Remember the Frankie/Serge/Arch teams?  It feels like I said “oh nice pass” about 3 times per game back then – partly because Frankie could create, and partly because that team just flowed and we got multiple easy looks every game.  We don’t even do one tenth of that any more.

So why not try something different?  Why not fire the coach and get someone else in here?  Why does me saying that cause half of you to get angry?  Why do we need sides?

To me, it’s simple.  It’s not working.  Something’s not right.  Yes, we beat Ohio State and Jerry Palm made us a 2 seed.  But when you look at this team – when you really investigate it – something is missing.  Communication between the coach and the players just isn’t clicking.  This roster just doesn’t seem to understand the offense like Dee and Deron did.  Opposing coaches know how to attack it, and unless we’re shooting well, we don’t seem to know how to adjust.  This is a problem that has been going on for 5 1/2 years.  A time frame where we’re .500 in the Big Ten and have only 1 NCAA tournament victory.

So why not try something different?  When some communications company hits a funk, they change CEO’s.  No hard feelings, thanks for your 6 years, here’s your buyout, let’s try something different. When a school system is underperforming, you get a new superintendent.  New ideas, fresh concepts, let’s keep pushing to make this thing great.  I don’t understand why we don’t just do that.  Even if we go to the Sweet 16 this year.

I know that most people on Team Weber will read this and say “you’re not playing the middle here – this is just another angle on hating Weber.”  But I don’t hate Weber.  That’s the thing.  I’m genuinely pleased that he took us to the Championship Game and has now turned around the recruiting that led to our funk.  I’ve met him before – seems like a nice enough guy.  His daughters seem well-raised.  He cleans the pool for his wife.  He can even be funny here and there and entertain us.

But he loses too many basketball games.  He can’t beat Penn State.  He’s taken a solid program and made it worse.  He struggles to draw up plays when we have the ball with the shot clock off.  He doesn’t seem to communicate and click with Brandon and DJ the way he did with Deron and Dee.

I guess what I’m saying is that we beat Ohio State because of Brandon Paul, not Bruce Weber.  And we lost to Penn State because of Bruce Weber, not Brandon Paul.  The occasional hot night from BP3 will beat Ohio State, and the occasional late game heroics from Sam Maniscalco will rescue us from an embarrassing loss to Illinois State, but for the most part, this basketball team has underperformed 5 of the last 6 years.  And we’ve won 1 tourney game in that span.  And we haven’t been to the Sweet 16 since 2005.  The machine is broken, so we should fire the coach.  It’s that simple.

If I was Mike Thomas, I’d make a change this year, even if we made the Sweet 16.  The wins that would get us there can’t mask the issues of the last 5+ years.  At Illinois, if you consistently lose to Penn State, you get fired.  The end.  This team – this roster – could be really good next year if they were playing in a system they enjoyed.  They don’t appear to enjoy, nor do they excel in, the current system. We struggle to execute, it takes a hot shooter for us to win, and we can’t score on the break nor find an open man under the basket for an easy layup.  It’s just not working, and this is a school with enough resources that it MUST work.

So why not try something different?

Tyler Brown’s three pointer with a one second left falls for Illinois State. Julian Welch makes both free throws with 14 seconds left to give Minnesota a two possesion lead.  Meyers Leonard doesn’t block Drew Crawford’s shot and Northwestern wins at the buzzer.  Just those three things – three times the ball is hanging on the air and if it goes in we lose – and we’d be 12-6 (2-3) and headed for another dance with the bubble.

Instead, Jerry Palm says we’re a 2 seed.  Um, what?

And I didn’t even mention the fact that we trailed St. Bonaventure 39-30 with 5:00 left.  Or that we were tied with Cornell with 1:30 remaining (at home).  Or that we were tied with Nebraska with 1:00 remaining (at home).  If we just go 50/50 in our close games, we’re 12-6 or maybe even 11-7.  Instead, we’re 15-3, ranked, and, according to some bracketologists, on our way to a two seed.

What?

In 2009/10, I documented all of our close losses.  I believe I played the opposite angle – 4 shots go in and we’re headed for a 3 seed and not the bubble.  So I fully realize that this very thin line is what separates the great from the good.  Win the close ones, gain confidence, and it builds upon itself.  Lose the close ones, and you end up playing at Stony Brook in the first round of the NIT because the circus is in town.

So will this build upon itself?  Well, the schedule certainly sets up that way.  With our next 5 games (at Penn State, Wisconsin, at Minnesota, Michigan State, Northwestern), another 4-1 stretch is possible.  I, for one, would very much enjoy going into our February 9th game at Indiana still sitting in first place in the Big Ten at 8-2.  But I can also see us going into that game 5-5 because our late-game heroics dried up and we started to tailspin.  This is my conundrum.  We’re either much better than I even realize or the luckiest team in NCAA basketball.

Which means the two sides of my personal Jekyll/Hyde Illini personality appears.  The pessimistic Illini fan in me says we all know what’s happening tonight - Penn State wins, probably at the buzzer, likely by some walkon’s banked-in three pointer.  The Kool-Aid Illini fanatic in me says we have a better chance than any other B1G team at the Big Ten title and a 1-seed.  WHAT?  Yeah, a 1-seed.

OK – we’re not getting a 1-seed.  That’s ridiculous.  Yes, the Big Ten is strong, so the Big Ten champ probably gets a 1-seed.  But the Big Ten is strong – no chance we emerge unscathed.  10-8 in conference is much more likely than 15-3.

Which puts me in a weird place.  I have no idea how to feel about the game tonight.  And I honestly have no idea where this season will end up. At this point last year, especially after the loss at Indiana, we pretty much knew where the season was headed.  Same in 2009/10 – we knew by mid-to-late January that we were headed for a bubbly mess.

This year?  No clue.  We might spiral down to the bubble.  We might surge to a 2-seed.  We might go 8-10 in the Big Ten and still make the tourney.  We might win the Big Ten.

OK, we’re not winning the Big Ten.  That’s ridiculous.  Or is it?  Yes, ridiculous.  Or maybe not.