For some reason this week, I felt like playing nice.  I had saved up a few articles for Northwestern Week so I could clown the Fitz a little bit (TOTALLY using Clown the Fitz for the next few months), but I’ve felt above it all week.  Who needs to go there?  Let’s strap on our helmets and play a game of football like gentlemen.

And then I read this post from the Northwestern blog Lake The Posts.  Seriously, I’m supposed to let that go?  I’m 17% certain someone paid him to write that so I’d burst.  Let’s do this.  From that blog entry…

Again, hats off to the Illini for blowing us out last year. They had a great season. But, when you’ve won just two of the last eight in head to head its hard to conjure up the feeling from anyone that the Illini are a more dominant program. Find me an Illinois fan who didn’t expect Zook to be fired going in to last season. Find me one.

*raises hand*

First, Mr. LTP, you need to understand something about Illinois fans. We fully, wholeheartedly, and with a clear conscience accept that we’re one of the worst BCS conference programs in the last 20 years. In those 20 years, we’ve we’ve won three games or less seven times.  In the last decade, we’ve had 11 games where we’ve had a chance to clinch bowl eligibility with our sixth win and we’ve only won three times (thanks for that rollover last year, btw).  And the kicker – we’ve gone to BCS bowls and then won less than 4 games just two seasons later twice.

We’re Illinois Football, and we can’t be trusted.  Which is why a post trying to claim superiority to us seems silly.  “We’re marginally less mediocre than you are!”  Congrats?

To the point of recruiting the “different” kids, find me the quote where Fitz directly put down Illinois. He didn’t. He talks all the time about having to recruit different kids because of academic requirements. Fitz is not a negative recruiter, I’ve talked with several players about this who went TO Fitz because other schools, like Dennis Erickson at Arizona State or Jim Harbaugh at Stanford were classless in their recruiting. Yet, Ron Zook calls out Northwestern, publicly for their non-conference schedule. Really? Congrats for playing a ranked team in the non-conference and beating a ranked team for the first time in 10 tries. Sorry, but Arkansas State, South Dakota State, Western Michigan arent’ exactly murderer’s row.

I can’t believe I have to trot these numbers out there again. But trot I will.

Regular season record of non-conference FBS opponents the last three years:

Illinois
Missouri (10-2)
Northern Illinois (10-2)
Fresno State (8-4)
Missouri (8-4)
Cincinnati (12-0)
Fresno State (8-4)
Missouri (9-3)
Louisiana-Lafayette (6-6)
Western Michigan (9-3)
Combined record of opponents: 80-28

Northwestern
Vanderbilt (2-10)
Rice (4-8)
Central Michigan (3-9)
Eastern Michigan (0-12)
Syracuse (4-8)
Miami (OH) (1-11)
Syracuse (3-9)
Duke (4-8)
Ohio (4-8)
Combined Record of Opponents: 25-83

Over those three years, Illinois had the most difficult non-conference schedule in the nation.  Out of 120 teams, that was the best combined record of opponents.  1st out of 120.

Over those three years, Northwestern had the easiest non-conference schedule in the nation.  Out of 120 teams, that was the worst combined record of opponents.  120th out of 120.

“Zook calls out Northwestern publicly for their non-conference schedule. Really?” ABSOLUTELY.  God bless him for it.  When Teddy Greenstein gets close to these numbers, he cites them as being “slightly off” and quickly changes the subject to overall strength of schedule.  Why?  Because 46th and 71st sounds a heckuva lot better than 1st and 120th.  Teams can’t control their conference schedules.  But they control every bit of their non-conference schedule.  And Pat Fitzgerald has chosen the easiest schedule in the country the last three years.

And, as I have said many times, I’m totally jealous of that schedule.  It’s helped you fake your way to solid bowls.  I’d KILL to fake our way to solid bowls in an attempt to finally build our program.  And this year is a start!  All hail easy schedules!!

On the same day Rivals.com reported that Northwestern had to drop DE Pierre Aka from the recruiting board because of his ACT scores (Illinois is one of the finalists for the Indianapolis product), an Illinois recruit was released from prison, and is still in consideration. If you want objectivity, check out Spencer Hall’s Fulmer Cup on EDSBS blog which annually tracks teams by arrests and the Illini made the top ten in 2011 coming in with 13, a Big Ten best, or worst, depending upon how you look at it. The schools’ biggest name player in the League, Rashad Mendenhall doesn’t even speak with the football program, nor do they want to use him for any promotional purposes. Perhaps this can all be pinned on former OC and noted recruiter, Mike Locksley, who was fired at New Mexico as much for his transgressions as he was his 2-26 record. The posse factor at Illinois has subsided greatly in his wake and team chemistry has catapulted since the departure of Juice Williams.

Really? I mean, really?? In one paragraph you claim academic high ground, moral high ground, institutional high ground, at-least-our-players-speak-to-the-coaches high ground, and “POSSE FACTOR” HIGH GROUND? And then you finish with a team chemistry shot at Juice?

Let me tell you something about Juice Williams. He gave this team everything he had. Everything. And he did it in the face of coaching changes (and coaching egos) that put him at the biggest disadvantage of any Big Ten quarterback. But he never complained and gave his teammates everything he had. And here you stroll in with your “team chemistry has catapulted” comment, like he was some program cancer. Poor form, man. Juice was a damn warrior.

Ron Zook has had five losing seasons in the seven that he has been at the helm. He has had two winning seasons, but only one regular season in which he was above .500. The Illini are clearly on the path to another winning season this year:

* 2005 – 2-9,0-8
* 2006 – 2-10,1-7
* 2007- 9-4,6-2 -Rose Bowl (L)
* 2008-5-7,3-5
* 2009-3-9,2-6
* 2010-7-6, 4-4 Texas Bowl (W)

Fitzgerald has hardly ripped it up, but again, he’s had more winning seasons and only one losing season in his five seasons at the helm.

* 2006 – 4-8, 2-6
* 2007 – 6-6, 3-5
* 2008 – 9-4, 5-3 Alamo Bowl (L)
* 2009-8-5, 5-3 Outback Bwol (L)
* 2010-7-6,3-5 TicketCity Bowl (L)

As mentioned in the comments, Fitz is 3-2 in head-to-head match-ups with Zook. Zook is 2-4 against Northwestern during his tenure. So there you go. You now have the facts in front of you.

But you didn’t give all the facts. You acted like both teams played identical schedules and those are the results. Both teams didn’t play identical schedules. One team played the hardest non-conference schedule in the nation the last three years and the other team played the easiest. One team hasn’t played a non-conference team with a losing record since 2007 and the other hasn’t played a non-conference team with a winning record since 2006.

Don’t believe me? Will you believe Bill Connolly of Football Outsiders? Over at Football Study Hall, his college football nerd blog, he played with his adjusted score and adjusted record stats to try to find which teams have been the most consistent since 2005. Here, I’ll let him tell you.

With that out of the way, I want to look at what these measures can tell us about trends. Below is a list of FBS teams ranked in order of their cumulative Adj. Record from 2005-10. In theory, it tells us a couple of different things: 1) which teams have piled up wins against lesser opponents and 2) which good teams have been most consistently strong. Being that this is Ohio State Day, I assume you know where I’m going with this.

As we see, in the last six years, Ohio State has played poorly enough to lose to an “average” team just four times … by far the best Adj. Record in the country. Tressel Ball serves its purpose, even if it is not the most lively, exciting brand of football the world has ever seen. We’ll see if Fickell Ball fares as well.

How did Northwestern and Illinois fare using this metric? Well, he ran each team’s record over those 6 seasons had they played this “average” team each game each season.

Illinois
Actual Record: 28-45
Adjusted Record: 42-31

Northwestern
Actual Record: 41-34
Adjusted Record: 28-47

Kinda hits you right between the eyes, doesn’t it?  Play an average schedule, and we become you while you become us.  Swap schedules and we’re likely on a 5 year bowl streak.  Illinois had the highest adjusted W/L number of all 120 FBS teams: +14.  Northwestern had the 6th lowest: -13.  Makes sense, given how each team chose to fill out their schedule.

My point: had each team played schedules slightly better and slightly worse than average, then yes, you can compare them head to head.  But they didn’t. They were on complete opposite ends of the spectrum.

So all you can really go with is head-to-head.  Which is in Fitzee’s favor, 3-2.

Until tomorrow.