Fresno After Math December 4, 2010
So I did a whole bunch of math this morning. And because of this math, I feel a whole lot better about losing to Fresno.
OK, I don’t feel better. I just have a singular, focused hatred toward one thing: our scheduling. I hate it more than WAC line judges More than Fresno State’s turf maintenance supervisor. More than Chicago’s (fourth favorite) Big Ten Team.
Want to hate it with me? Here’s my math.
Combined regular-season record of FBS non-conference opponents the last three seasons:
Illinois: 80-28
Ohio State: 64-44
Purdue 64-44
Minnesota: 59-49
Michigan State: 56-52
Penn State: 54-54
Iowa: 50-58
Michigan: 48-60
Wisconsin: 46-62
Indiana: 40-68
Northwestern: 27-81
Not a misprint. Checked my numbers 3 times. The last non-conference team we’ve played that had a losing record was Syracuse in 2007. The last non-conference team that Northwestern has played that had a WINNING record was Nevada in 2006.
And that has made all the difference.
How do you feel about Pat Fitzgerald and Northwestern? Kinda jealous of the resurgence of their program? Think that they’re far ahead of us? Think that they might deserve the Texas Bowl over us; that we should limp to the TicketCity Bowl? Some stats…
Northwestern Big Ten victories since Fitzgerald took over in 2006: 18
Illinois Big Ten victories since 2006: 16
Why are they viewed as “resurgent” and we’re viewed as “fumbling”? Non-conference scheduling. That’s it. Nothing else. Swap non-conference schedules with them this year, and they’re not bowling while we’re 8-4 and headed to the Gator Bowl (seriously – run the match-ups). Swap non-conference schedules with them last year, and we’re 6-6 and bowling (seriously – do the math). Same thing with 2008 – swap out Missouri in St. Louis and Western Michigan in Detroit for 4-8 Ohio and 3-9 Syracuse in Champaign, and we’re 7-5 and bowling.
Can someone – anyone – tell me the logic behind the Big Ten team with the second worst record of bowl appearances the last 15 years having the toughest non-conference schedule each of the last 3 seasons? Nine non-conference opponents that we choose, and we pick 8 bowl teams (plus 6-6 Louisiana-Lafayette in 2008)? The only teams that should schedule difficult opponents are the teams that are looking to increase their BCS profile – why on God’s green earth would we schedule opponents that are 80-28? Truth be told, I’m shocked that we didn’t look around for the toughest FCS opponent each year as well.
I know what you’re thinking, Ron Guenther. Somebody passed this along to you, and you’re reading it thinking “not fair – there’s no way we would have known that Northern Illinois would be this good, or that Cincinnati would be 12-0, or that Fresno would be 8-4 each of the two seasons we played them.” My response: you absolutely, positively, totally should have. If I was in charge of the scheduling, I would take 15 hours studying the coaching staffs and recruiting successes of every possible non-conference opponent. Right now, I would set everything up so that we’re playing a decent-but-not-great FBS opponent, a decent-but-not-great Sun Belt or CUSA opponent, an awful MAC team, and an FCS opponent.
What do we do instead? Start the season in St. Louis and end the season in Fresno, California on a Friday night in December. Absolutely, positively, patently ridiculous.
In my point about our scheduling in the 19 Point Plan, I asked for this:
Buy out of the Fresno State game. Reschedule it for 2012. Replace Fresno State with a win (Memphis?). A team like Illinois that is 8-16 over the past two years doesn’t need two bowl teams in their preseason schedule. Missouri will suffice.
As it turned out, we played 3 bowl teams in the non-conference schedule. Two of them were 10-2, and one of them was 8-4. And we’re headed to Texas instead of Florida because of it.
A few short thoughts on this debacle and then we’ll never speak of it again:
+ First, the officials and the field.
Disgusting.
And embarrassing.
The end.
+ As I said in the mini-podcast, I’m really, really proud of Nathan Scheelhaase after last night. Yes, I know, he has much to learn in the passing game – I get that. But that kid played his heart out last night. As a freshman. On the road. On a hockey rink.
Remember all of those concerns before the season? “Scheelhaase is so thin – he’s gonna get snapped in half some time this season, and we don’t have a backup.” Save for the last few minutes of the Michigan State game, the kid played every meaningful snap. And took every hit. And set the Illini record for rushing yards by a QB the year after we ditched the spread. AND, most importantly, played his heart out every game. I’ll say it one more time – he’s one of the few Illini players I can remember that probably cares about the Illini winning more than I do.
One more time through the freshman statistics:
Kurt Kittner as a freshman: 44.4% completion percentage, 87 YPG, 1 TD, 7 INT (5 starts)
Juice Williams as a freshman: 39.5% completion percentage, 124 YPG, 9 TD, 9 INT (9 starts)
Scheelhaase as a freshman: 56.8% completion percentage, 132 YPG, 17 TD, 8 INT (12 starts)
Thanks for giving your all, Nate. Looking forward to the next 3 years.
+ Our kickoff coverage completely fell apart as the season went on. Last night, I closed my eyes when we were kicking off. I swear we haven’t held anyone inside the 30 since the Purdue game. Field position played a huge role in the game last night, and kickoff coverage absolutely killed us.
So Texas Bowl it is. Likely against a beatable opponent in Baylor. Given how I felt one year ago today, I will absolutely take it. Despite last night’s debacle, I still feel pretty good about this season. In a few days, I’ll likely return to ecstatic.
We’re going to a bowl game.
I really need to check your logic.
Last year you kept saying the team was going to be 10-2 (so naturally I’m under the impression that you think there’s sufficient talent on the team).
They go 3-9.
Why would that 3-9 season lower your expecatations so much to where you’re ecstatic about a 6-6 season? The underlying talent didnt change much from last year…sure there’s a new QB but thats the only major change.
Its almost like you’re trying to come up with every possible angle to prop up a very poor program. Just a month ago you were posting about Illinois winning 10 games in a row…since then they’ve lost 2 and will likely get pounded by Baylor. Yet this season you are “ecstatic”?
Illinois had 2 games go unexpectedly their way – NW and Penn State
They had 1 game go unexpectedly against them – Minnesota
So being +1 is progress?
5-7 vs D1 teams is progress?
If Illinois cant be expected to beat Fresno State (who lost 51-0 the week before), or a crappy Mac school like WMU…or Minnesota at home that has 59 players dressed and an interim coach…or Ohio at home (funny you mention Ohio above bc Zook lost to that team at home when Guenther did schedule them)…or winning at least 3-4 Big 10 games per season since they have protected rivals of NW/Indiana (find another Big 10 team that has it that easy),,,.then I dont know what to say.
Post like this give the embrace mediocrity thing a new meaning.
I think Fitzgerald is looked up to at NW bc their facilities suck…they have tougher academic hurdles to get guys in…they draw no one to their games…Illinois has all the built in advantages yet NW had had more success. I dont see anyone using the “resurgence angle”…over the last 15 years NW’s had a ton more success in football than Illinois….
But lets say I’ll buy the argument you’re trying to make…which is basically that Illinois is better than NW but due to scheduling it hasnt shown in the records. So Illinois fans should be happy that they are the 8th best Big 10 team instead of 9th? out of 11 teams…?
Get real.
I completely agree Joe John.
Seriously Joe John? First of all it’s nice that you’ve already written of the game on the 29th. Great fan there…but seriously, this?
“sure there’s a new QB but thats the only major change.”
That’s a great point. I don’t recall any injuries to starting CB’s and safeties a week before the season, and our starting fullback didn’t get hurt either so theres that. I also forgot we had our two best TE’s and that 4 star freshman playing so theres that too. And since we were playing with the exact same schemes on offensive and defense I guess we should have expected this team to go 12-0, right?
Fact is, no one thought that this team would go 6-6, regardless of what our record was at any point of the season, and that we probably could have had a better record than that. There was no reason to expect a win vs Indiana, Purdue, or even NIU.
Illini fans are the most manic depressive fans I know. This team hasn’t been to a minor bowl since Bill freaking Clinton was president, and they finally get one, and fans aren’t happy.
Wow.
No reason to expect a win at HOME vs Purdue (who lost their 3 best offensive players to injuries), INDIANA (i dunno..maybe bc always suck)…and a MAC school of NIU???????????
You seriously didnt expect to win those 3 games??????
If you dont even expect success against those levels of teams…just disband football altogether or move to DII.
Gentlemen…..I see valid points on BOTH sides in your posts. However, please let’s keep it civil. One of the great things in my mind about alioneye.com to date has been the lack of sarcasm and “you (and Zook, etc.) are idiots and I’m smarter than you” posts that seem to infect all the other Illini based boards. I just think the same statistics or whatever can be delivered in a manner that is not so antagonistic.
The amount of effort that Robert puts into the blog amazes me all the time (obscure facts and figures, visits to Camp Rantoul just to name 2). He may have gulped more orange kool aid than anyone I know when it comes to our football program, but that’s fine with me.
Thanks for at least considering where I’m heading with this…….
joe john-
you have an excellent point with the low expectations of illini fans. we have lots of built in advantages over the other lower-tier big ten schools and should do much better.
however, if you follow this blog, or other illini message boards, you would know that robert (as well as many very caring and very knowledgable illini fans) isn’t advocating that we go 6-6 and play crappy opponents forever. that’s the key here that seems to be beyond the grasp of many (including tate and guenther): going to a bcs bowl once every 5-10 years, with nothing in between, isn’t program building. all that some of us are advocating for is to stop acting like we are on the level of ohio state or texas–we don’t need strength of schedule, because we aren’t at the level to compete for a national championship.
we need to compete for a minor bowl for AT LEAST 2-3 years in a row before we concern ourselves with competing on a higher level. be like wisconsin, northwestern, iowa (just to name a few–there are tons of examples)–build your program slowly, with bowl seasons regularly. bowls bring money, exposure, and excitement to the program. these all bring better recruits. if you can maintain that for more than one year (when was the last time illinois went to consecutive bowls?), then you are on the road to bringing illinois past the lowered expectations that currently exist.
What would the record of our out of conference opponents be if we had not played them? These numbers always seem skewed when you compare Ohio state who often goes undefeated. It’s not completely that some of these teams are just scheduling easier OOC schedules. Some (most) are just better.
lost in all of the negative nanciness…WE’RE GOING TO A BOWL GAME!
Robert,
I agree with your post on scheduling. Personally, I don’t mind the Mizzou game, but scheduling Freson is just a bad idea as two losses show. Also, NIU? Everyone knew coming into the season they would be the best MAC team – why not schedule a terrible Akron team. ASU next year? Cripe, why are we playing a Pac-12 team?
If Ron Zook is a problem, Ron Guenthener is a bigger problem
Joe John, you need to check your attitude at the door. This is the best Illini blog on the Internet. If you don’t want to be civil go to the IlliniHQ board.