So I’m going.  After swearing off this game, after thinking it was my fault for attending, after hearing from my cardiologist that 178 bpm for 3 consecutive hours isn’t recommended, I’m going.  I will hate life, I will come close to vomiting, and I will bite through my lower lip, but I’m going.

By myself, mind you.  No human being needs to be near me during an Illinois/Missouri athletic contest.  There will be sweat.  There will be pacing in the concourse.  I might start smoking.  But I’m pushing past all of that to go.

Why?  Honestly, because of Nathan Scheelhaase.  Somewhere in some hotel in downtown St. Louis at this very moment, Nathan Scheelhaase and Steve Hull are watching game film of the Missouri/Navy game last year.  Nathan’s not going to sleep.  Not for 4-5 more hours.  Nathan Scheelhaase has been waiting for this moment for over 2 years his whole life.  And for some reason, I can’t let him down by simply watching on TV.  I need to be there.  For some reason.

But I can’t predict a victory.  I just can’t.  If Walt Aikens and Supo Sanni and Terry Hawthorne were starting in the secondary, I might be tempted to.  But without them, I just can’t.  No matter what gains we may make offensively, no matter if our return game really is improved… I just don’t think we can stop Missouri’s passing attack.  We’d need 3 interceptions.  We had 5 all of last year.

So while we will see a promising young freshman at quarterback play harder than ever he thought possible, and while a freshman named Millines or Wilson will have a coming out party, and while Corey Liuget will begin to put his name on post-season accolades lists… I don’t think we’re winning.

Missouri 35, Illinois 23

As for the second prediction, this one will hurt even more.  Predicting our record this season.

Last year, I bought in.  I had us going (redacted).  Ridiculous in retrospect, right?  I should have listened to my one friend who said Juice’s accuracy (or lack thereof) would doom our passing attack.  I should have listened to my other friend who said the young linebackers weren’t ready.  I should have listened to my conscience which always says that we’re Illinois Football, and we can’t be trusted.

But I didn’t, and I bought in, and we went 3-9.

So now I’m gun shy.  I marched in lock step with Phil Steele last year – he has us 6-6 this year.  Dare I predict a bowl?  No chance.  Too young.

As I was driving to Rantoul a few weeks ago, I kinda settled on 5-7.  It just seems so Illinois-like, doesn’t it?  5-5 in 1996, heading to Wisconsin, needing a win to go to a bowl… 3-3 tie, no bowl.  5-5 in 2000, needing a win at Northwestern to go to a bowl… 61-23 loss, no bowl.  Overtime vs. eventual National Champion Ohio State in 2002, needing a win to keep bowl hopes alive… 23-16 loss, 5-7, no bowl.  5-4 in 2008, in Detroit vs. Western Michigan, needing a win to lock up a bowl… 23-17 loss, 5-7 finish, no bowl.

So 5-7 it is, right?  Decent, improved, but just not good enough – yes?

I drove home from Rantoul leaning towards 4-8.  Scheelhaase had happy feet in the scrimmage.  The secondary looked a bit confused.  And there were several plays where the QB turned right and the tailback went left.  This is a work in progress, I reminded myself.  Two new schemes will take half a season to sink in.

Watching film on the second scrimmage, I began to lean back towards 5 wins.  Scheelhaase looked calmer.  Jenkins looked shifty.  And Leshoure looked powerful.  I started to think about the soft finish to our schedule, and I let the Pizza Pizza Bowl cross my mind again.

And then BOOM Walt Aikens booted and then BOOM Supo Sanni Achilles and then BOOM Terry Hawthorne foot.  From 7 players we can count on in the secondary to 4, all in a week.  Not only did my confidence in 5 wins waver, I began to think that 4 was too heavy.  How would I feel about this rebuilt secondary against, say, Indiana if they played tomorrow?  Not very good.  And when “confidence in beating Indiana” and “not very good” are found bunched together, one might want to consider 2 wins for a prediction.

But I have settled on my prediction.  It is with great remorse that I post this.  And I swear that I swear that I swear that we will pull off the inverse in 2011.  Here it is:

4-8* **

* When Nathan Scheelhaase passes for 210 yards and runs for 135, leading the Illini to their first victory in this series, I reserve the right to start talking about 7 wins.

** When Blaine Gabbert throws for 461 yards tomorrow and we lose by 38, I reserve the right to start saying things like “where do our three wins come from?”