19 Point Plan – #8: Schedule Like We’re Illinois January 27, 2010
On this little piece of paper right here, this point was originally titled “Buy out of the Fresno State game”. But then, somewhere around Point #5, rumors surfaced that we were buying out of the Fresno State game and scheduling 0-12 Eastern Michigan. The SID office quickly came out and squashed the rumors, which was a good thing, because had it been, say, Point #4, followed by an actual Fresno buyout, I would have been wholeheartedly convinced that the DIA was 1) checking for updates on The Plan every morning, 2) implementing them, and 3) prepared to offer me a job. And my son just switched to a new school this year.
Point #8: Stop scheduling like we have something to prove
I have to admit, my view on this issue has changed dramatically in the last 15 years. Had you been standing around my office’s proverbial water cooler in 1998, I would have given you an earful on Bill Snyder and his scheduling practices at Kansas State. Vitriol would have been spewed. The word “namby-pamby” would have been used. I might have even made a “Sisters of the Poor” crack. I know, yikes.
But in the 12 years since then, I’ve changed. And not just because we’ve only been to three bowls in those 12 years. The change is this: I now understand that no one is asking us to schedule Sisters of the Poor indefinitely. It’s that we must schedule them until we’ve taken the program up a rung, and then we add in a Southern Miss or a New Mexico State. And after we move up another rung, we add a Fresno State or a Duke. The next rung adds Arizona. The next a home and home with Boston College. And then (and only then) do we agree to a neutral series with Missouri. (You have no idea how much pain I endure when typing the name of that last team.)
Compare that to this. Tossing out the FCS games (when they added the 12th game, everybody got a freebie), here are the regular season records of our last 6 non-con opponents: 8-4, 12-0, 8-4, 9-3, 6-6, 9-3. Nope, not a misprint. 52-20. We get to choose our opponents, and we choose opponents who went 52-20. Let’s compare that to a few of our Big Ten brethren:
2008 & 2009 FBS non-conference opponent records
Wisconsin: 36-36
Indiana: 32-40
Penn State: 32-40
Iowa: 34-38
And are you ready for this one? Seated?
Northwestern: 16-56
I want to put those two opponents records next to each other, just so no one is confused:
Illinois’ non-conference FBS opponents the last two seasons: 52-20
Northwestern’s non-conference FBS opponents the last two seasons: 16-56
For a little more perspective, let’s stay with those two teams for a bit. Overall regular season record of all opponents for the last two seasons?
Illinois: 82-50 (2009), 82-50 (2008)
Northwestern: 58-74 (2009), 60-72 (2008)
Um, why, again?
Look at the chart in the sidebar in this article. Indiana schedules like they’re on the low end of the chart and need to build something. Northwestern schedules like they’re on the low end of the chart and need to build something. Why do we schedule like we’re Georgia, again?
So here is my proposal.
1) If at all possible, buy out of the Fresno State game. Reschedule it for 2012. Replace Fresno State with a win (Memphis?). A team like Illinois that is 8-16 over the past two years doesn’t need two bowl teams in their preseason schedule. Missouri will suffice.
2) Push back the Arizona State series (scheduled to start in 2011) to 2014 and 2015. We’ll build to that.
3) Schedule a Penn State-like non-conference slate for 2011 (8 home games, no BCS opponents in the non-conference). Then sprinkle in Fresno in 2012. Then you have the return game with Cincinnati in 2013. Then you add in Arizona State in 2014-15.
4) The rest of the opponents for all of these seasons are scheduled wins. Sun Belt, CUSA, low-end of the MAC and WAC. I don’t care if you think it’s namby-pamby. We’re building something here.
Will this be costly? Probably. Will it be mocked? Absolutely. Do I care? Not at all. We’re building something here.
OK, now we’re getting too close to Point #10 (Build a Program). So I’ll close by saying this.
The current recruiting class is turning out to be pitiful. This is mostly due to the fact that we went 3-9 this year and 5-7 last year. And that is partly due to the fact that we played non-conference opponents that were 52-20 the past two seasons.
I want to reverse that. Let’s play a 20-52 schedule and back our way into a 6-6 season. And then let’s use that momentum to add a better recruiting class that leads to another bowl. And then lets add some decent opponents for some decent September games that will sell tickets and boost the program. And then lets schedule some big-time made-for-national-TV games that will be attractive to big-time recruits.
There I go again, treading on Point #10. We’ll get to that soon. For now, Point #8: Schedule like we’re Illinois. We’re not Florida.
Wait, Florida’s non-conference opponents the last 2 years were only 37-35?? Then why are we…
Good analysis. I’d also like to see Hellen Keller’s for the Blind and Deaf on the schedule until we post back-to-back winning seasons.
Ron, you idiot!
It makes too much sense.
I’m personally convinced the mizzoo game kills us every year in recruiting.
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