12-8 January 25, 2010
I think it’s perfectly reasonable to have made this statement in November:
To be honest, with the way the non-conference and early Big Ten schedule sets up, anything less than 16-4 in our first 20 games is a disappointment.
And now, 12-8. With losses to Utah, Bradley, Georgia, and Northwestern. In December, I propped myself up with “well, Utah did beat Michigan and take Oklahoma to OT, and Bradley looks like they can contend in the Valley”. Over the holidays, when we were beating Northwestern in overtime at home, I was using “well, Georgia did knock off Georgia Tech and Northwestern looks to have their best team since Evan Eschmeyer…”
Now? We’re just not good. We should be, but 
we’re not. I mean, we should be, right? We were ranked as high as 20th in November. How can a team respected enough in the preseason to be ranked 20th by Week 2 be 12-8 in Week 10? Especially one that played Iowa, Penn State, Indiana, and Northwestern (twice) in their first seven conference games? The Michigan State loss and the Purdue loss – fine. They’re the class of the Big Ten. Nothing to get too upset about, right?
But that Purdue loss. Let me tell you – I was not a happy man after the Purdue loss. I was angry. And I rarely ever get angry. Purdue was a struggling team with a headlighted-deer appearance that was sleepwalking through the first half, and we took our foot off the gas so they could sleep better. And then in the second half, we let their version of Stan Simpson beat us. Nothing against Stan – it’s just that we let their 13th man come off the bench and score 14 points to turn the game around. Somewhere in Germany, the lionhearted Illini God that was Chester Frazier broke his laptop in disgust. (I wish I had started this blog 5 years ago – the “Chester Frazier Is The Only Illini Player In My Lifetime That Truly Cares More About The Illini Winning Than I Do” tag would have been used several dozen times.)
And that’s the problem, isn’t it? They don’t seem to care. They have a chance to put Northwestern away when they’re up 49-41, and score 3 points in the next 10 minutes. They have Purdue on the ropes, and they stand around and wait for Demitri to create (again). The truth hurts – were it not for three double-digit comebacks, we’d be watching a 9-11 basketball team right now.
Given a day to let all of this sink in, I’ve come to one very simple Denny Green explanation: they are who (recruiting gurus) thought they were.
That’s it, isn’t it? (And if it’s not, please don’t tell me. It’s where I’ve found closure, and where I’d like to leave it for the rest of the season.) We got pretty excited that the sophomore promise shown in McCamey, Davis, and Tisdale, and that, combined with the athletic freshmen guards, gave us hope. But the truth is painful: Demitri McCamey was the only RSCI Top-100 recruit in the 2006, 2007, and 2008 classes that stuck with the program (Brian Carlwell and Alex Legion are gone), and right now, we’re playing like a team that had only one RSCI Top-100 recruit in the 2006, 2007, and 2008 classes. Bruce Weber had a 5 year recruiting learning curve, and those results are killing us right now. Sherron Collins dumping it underneath to Mike Dunigan would not be 12-8. Iman Shumpert finding Evan Turner on the secondary break would not be 12-8. We missed on many, many good recruits, and it’s killing us.
What’s that? There’s serious questions about the coaching staff that need to be answered? We have a penchant for puckering when he have a 12 point second-half lead? This team has gotten markedly worse at running the motion from Game 1 to Game 20? Um, I’m not sure if you heard me before or what, but I asked that you not bring that up. I’m hunkered down in the “we’ll get better recruits in here and fix this thing” bunker (named, oddly, after Ron Zook), and I’m not coming out until spring. So keep your “when was the last time we ran an innovative inbounds play under our own basket?” cynicism to yourself. I’m running with “help will arrive next year and this team will drastically improve” and that’s final.
At least until we lose at Penn State.
Edit: OHAI. I forgot that this was going to be the first post where I quit using the dumb moniker and started using my name. So no, our budget here at ALE didn’t have room for a new writer with this post being his stunning debut. (Although, re-reading it, I kinda wish I could sell it that way.) Nope, still me. Same guy. Hi.
16-4? Really? So reverse Utah, Bradley, Georgia, and Northwestern, and we’ve found the absolute floor?
So if we hadn’t won at Clemson, but reversed those 4, you’re disappointed with the season? Vanderbilt?
This season has been a disappointment, to be sure, but 16-4 is a little far-fetched, in my opinion.
I think so. Before the season, I expected to win the Vegas tourney, lose two games in the non-con (maybe lose at Clemson and go 2-1 against Vandy/Missouri/Gonzaga). I then expected to start 6-2 in the Big Ten at a minimum (if we’d lose at Penn State, maybe we’d beat Purdue at home to make up for it).
So yeah – I don’t think 16-4 was far fetched at all, given that it was our easiest Big Ten start in maybe 30 years. The schedule appeared backloaded, so I figured we’d finish 3-7 in our last ten Big Ten games and squeak into the tourney at something like 22-12. But a 12-8 start – with that schedule – is hard to comprehend.
Far-fetched? No. But I also don’t think it’s the minimum standard for acceptable, either.
i agree with NotTufts a little that perhaps 16-4 was a little pie in the sky and perhaps not necessarily where the bar should have been set, but never would i have imagined that we’d be 12-8 right now.
leaving the NW game on saturday i was thinking that it’s a combination of 2 things…
1) DMC, Tisdale, and Davis aren’t world beaters. Tis and Davis have monster games every so often, but then manage to disappear for the next couple of games. we need to get consistent contribution from all 3 of those guys to really show any hint of being a good team, and like you said in an earlier post, Mike D has been MIA (with the exception of the PU game) since we played Gonzaga. something’s wrong with his jumper and he hasn’t figured out how to fix it yet.
2) our freshmen are playing like freshmen and making dumb mistakes from time to time. both DJ and Paul are also inconsistent, but they at least have a little leeway in that department.
the thing that has been the most perplexing is the awful defense that we play for stretches of the game. i don’t remember seeing the “help on every single drive!” defense last year, when we were arguably less athletic. maybe Trent was a far better defender than people gave him credit for, but holy tihs we look bad out there this year.