At first glance, I was very, very pleased with the coordinators we chose.  I knew we’d throw some money around – I didn’t figure that it would yield two big names.  When Georgia came after Vic Koenning on Thursday night, I resigned myself to losing him immediately.  But if Ron Zook is good at one thing, it’s selling.  And somehow he sold Illini Football over Georgia Football.  I was stunned (in a good way) to see Koenning at the podium on Friday.

With some spare time this weekend, I researched what I could about their play calling and schemes.  The point of my research was to compare the schemes to our current roster, looking for players that will be helped (and hurt) by the changes.  Most of this is purely a guess, but here’s my thoughts on what we’ll see on the field next fall.  Offense today, defense tomorrow.

As you know by now, Petrino runs more of a pro-set offense.  It’s not exactly an NFL offense, and there are many spread elements, but the days of the read option are over.  It is a vertical passing attack, with QB’s often under center taking 7 step drops, play-action, and lots of off-tackle runs.  I don’t think we’ll see the Ron Turner throw-to-the-fullback-in-the-flat 9 times per game, but we won’t see the Locksley bubble screen either.

Players benefiting from the change: Jacob Charest, Graham Pocic, Justin Lattimore, Chandler Whitmer, Mikel LeShoure, Greg Fuller
Players hurt by the change: Nathan Scheelhaase, Justin Green, Tyler Sands, Fred Sykes, Hugh Thornton, Troy Pollard

The biggest loser in this switch was Nathan Scheelhaase.  He came here to run the spread option.  He was formed in his mother’s womb to run the spread option.  Rivals listed him as the #7 dual threat QB in the nation.  And now we’re going to ask him to sit in the pocket.  I’m not saying he can’t do it – everything you hear or read from the kid says he’s a leading leader with leadery leadership skills built to lead. So if he can improve his touch and accuracy, he might just fit the system.  But I’m thinking he has to hate the switch.

Conversely, in my mind, the biggest winner in this switch is not Jacob Charest, but Chandler Whitmer.  Rivals re-sorted their position rankings at the beginning of December.  And guess which QB is ranked #1 on the “Most Accurate QBs” list? The same one that won the “Most Accurate” award at the Elite 11 camp this summer.  For you basketball people, that’s like getting selected for the McDonald’s All American game, and then winning the three point shootout. Kid’s good.

So the quarterback competition in spring ball and Camp Rantoul should be even more fun, as all three QB’s are starting from scratch.  Charest has the game experience, but needs to prove he can run a vertical system.  Scheelhaase has the athletic ability, but needs to prove he’s not just a dual threat QB.  Whitmer was built for this system, but is 18 years old adjusting to his first semester away from home.  Should be fun.

The other big winner appears to be Mikel LeShoure.  Not only did Petrino call him out during his press conference (“#5 can play”), he also runs an offense that is less east west (read option runs) and more north south.  That makes me think of LeShoure’s long TD’s against Michigan and Fresno State.  Judging by the backs that got the ball in Louisville and Arkansas, Petrino likes a big tailback who can hit the hole with a little burst.  That’s My Man Mikel.

This might be bad news for Justin Green and Troy Pollard.  This past season, Arkansas took carries away from scatback Michael Smith and gave them to bruiser Broderick Green.  I can see LeShoure and Ford getting the majority of the carries next year, with Green and Pollard fighting it out for 45 carries.

Another player that benefits is a guy who was listed as the starter at fullback on the depth chart each week, but kept his redshirt because he never appeared in one game: Greg Fuller.  Fuller becomes extremely important next year, as we reintroduce the lead-blocking fullback.  I think there’s a chance Zach Becker, who moved to tight end last year after a freshman year at fullback, moves back to fullback.  He didn’t catch any passes this past season (he was mostly a blocking TE), and he was pretty solid at fullback as a freshman.  My guess is that Fuller and Becker fight it out for the starting spot at fullback.

Speaking of tight ends, I found it both funny and depressing at Petrino’s press conference that he said “I think the best way to describe my offense is the New York Giants – so much starts with the tight end.”  He obviously hadn’t checked the roster yet.  Because with Hoomanawanui graduating, Graham transferring, and Fiedorowicz decommitting, we’re left with 2 tight ends on the entire roster – sophomore-to-be London Davis and redshirt freshman Justin Lattimore.  Even if you count Zach Becker as a tight end, that’s only three tight ends (with 2 career catches between them).  It’s difficult to run many 2 TE formations when you only have 3 at practice.  Justin Lattimore was fairly impressive in Rantoul – he seems to be a pretty fluid athlete – but I’d much rather see that fluid athlete find the field as a redshirt junior than have him get starter minutes as a redshirt freshman in a tight end-centric offense.  Any way you slice it, yikes.

(And to start a little baseless speculation, I think they move someone from the defensive side of the ball and try them at tight end, if only to have more bodies.  My candidate is Justin Staples, a 6′-4″ athlete currently third on the depth chart at outside linebacker.  He might not be the best fit, but it’s not like we could move Martez Wilson to tight end.  Wait a second, could we move Martez Wilson to tight end?)

At wide receiver, it’s difficult to determine which players will benefit, mostly because it’s difficult to determine which players will be here.  Cordale Scott has already announced he is transferring (and he gets his own point in the 19 Point Plan), and AJ Jenkins is rumored to be looking to transfer (although there’s now talk he might stay).  If both of them leave, and with Benn, Duvalt, and Cumberland gone, the wide receivers take on a whole new look next year.  Are Fayson and Ramsey the starters?  Does Terry Hawthorne move over to wide receiver full time?  What about Eddie McGee – is he now a full-time wide receiver (I hope so).  What will we get from Scout Team Offensive Player of the Year Steve Hull?  Is Fred Sykes our #3 receiver?  Can Chris James have a Will Judson-like breakout senior year?  My guess is that Fayson and Ramsey get the most catches – Fayson because of his hands and Ramsey because of his footwork.  I still think Jack Ramsey has the best footwork on the team, and if he can learn the routes, I think he’s a starter and a go to guy.  Everyone else – I have no idea.

The offensive line will be interesting as well.  As I said in an earlier post, I was really, really worried about replacing Jon Asamoah and Eric Block next year.  After years of having some mobile interior offensive linemen who could get out in space and hit somebody (Martin O’Donnell, Ryan McDonald, etc.), we were left with a crop of interior linemen who struggle with the spread-option blocking schemes.  Left guard was there for the taking this past season, and Randall Hunt nor Graham Pocic seemed to find a groove.  Jack Cornell?  Hasn’t been able to find the field.  Tyler Sands?  Ryan Sedlacek?  Nobody sticks out in practice like O’Donnell or McDonald used to (Sands was the closest, and this change might hurt him).  None of these guys seem to be the guards/centers we need for a spread blocking scheme.

So this is where the change might be most beneficial.  Maybe Jack Cornell was built to road grade, not run around the corner and hit somebody 10 yards down field.  Maybe redshirt freshman Andrew Carter will be ready to clear interior holes for Mikel LeShoure starting next season.  Maybe a guy like Leon Hill is the big body needed for the new blocking scheme.  We have to find replacements for Block and Asamoah – I’m hoping Graham Pocic and Andrew Carter step forward and prove they can excel in a scheme like this.

My biggest fear though – above finding interior linemen and a go-to receiver – is the length of time it takes to adapt to an entirely new scheme.  Remember how lost Michigan looked when they did this switch in reverse?  I fear something like that against Missouri.  We’ll likely only start two seniors on offense next year (and if Pocic pushes past Hunt at left guard and someone leaps Fayson at wideout, there’s a chance we start zero seniors).  Inexperience + new scheme usually = yakkity sax.

But it’s only December.  Still plenty of time for August Syndrome to set in.

Tomorrow, the Defense.  Subtitle: Nowhere To Go But Up.