Remember my friend that I walked past at the tailgate?  “Basketball!  Wooooooo! Basketball!!!” Him?  I was kind of hoping he was right.  I was hoping the balm for my 3-9 football wounds would be DJ Richardson and Mike Davis.  Even after Utah and Bradley, I was still fairly confident.  The win at Clemson, a great win over Vandy – our Providence moment was behind us and 14-2 start here we come.

And then this.  Somewhere around the 5:00 mark, when Georgia pushed the lead out to nine (Georgia! Lost to Wofford, 4-4 Georgia!!), I realized that we might not make the tournament this year.  Plenty of big men in the Big Ten on Thompkins level, and if we can’t contain him, we in trouble.

This set me in to a bit of a panic – no bowl, no tournament?  What is this, 1981?  Begrudgingly, I looked it up.  2008 we missed the tournament, but we were coming off the Rose Bowl.  1999 we missed the tournament, but I had just spent my holidays in Miami for Lloyd-to-Kittner in the MicronPC bowl.  The last school year where we missed both?  1995-96.  My final year in school.  We tie Wisconsin 3-3 in the final game of the season to miss out on a bowl, and then lose to Alabama in the first round of the NIT that following spring.  Those were not the days.

It gets worse.  The last time before that season where a bowl-less football team was followed up by a tournament-less basketball team?  1981-82.  And that football team was 7-4 – there just weren’t many bowls at that time.  1981-82… 1995-96… 2009-10?  Please tell me it’s 1:30 in the morning and I’m overreacting.  (‘Cause it is 1:30 in the morning.)

Yes, that’s it – I’m overreacting.  After all, I am the guy who called his friends after the December 2003 Providence loss and told them that we were missing the tourney.  So yes, I might be overreacting.

But did you see Georgia (Georgia!!) in the paint?  Did you see them control the boards?  Did you see us box out, ever? (I didn’t).  I’m now frightened of the Northwestern (Northwestern!!) game on December 30th.  And it’s at home!

What this team appears to be sorely lacking is senior leadership.  Bruce Weber has always maintained that his teams will go as far as the seniors will take them, and with only one senior on the team – and a flighty chucker at that (although I do love the Dom most of the time) – we’re lacking in leadership.  McCamey tried to take over in the second half and almost brought us all the way back, but he’s more of the strong, silent type.  We need a what-DJ-Richardson-will-be-as-a-senior type leader, and we just don’t have one.  And it’s killing us away from Assembly Hall.

Here’s the reality as I see it.  Lose to Missouri or Gonzaga, and we’ll likely need 11-7 in the Big Ten to get in.  A 4th non-conference loss plus a 10-8 Big Ten record (and a loss in the Big Ten Tournament) would give us that unlucky 13th loss.  And teams with unlucky 13th losses never seem to find their way in unless they’re on a roll.  With a Big Ten schedule that finishes MSU, at Wisconsin, OSU, at Purdue, at Michigan, Minnesota, at OSU, Wisconsin, an end of the season roll seems unlikely.

So that’s where we’re at.  Lose to either Missouri or Gonzaga, and we’ll need 11-7 in a tough Big Ten.  Beat them both, and 10-8 still likely punches our ticket.  Lose both, and, well, welcome to 1996.

Remember – I said this same thing in 2003, and after Nick Smith hit that shot to win at Indiana, we rattled off 10 straight to close out the Big Ten season.  (In fact, from the moment Nick Smith hit that shot, we won 43 of our next 45 games.)  So there’s certainly time with this young team to get on a roll.

But after tonight, I’m not counting on it.  We looked so soft.  We looked so uninspired for the first 35 minutes.  This was a bad Georgia team, and we got manhandled.  Kind of like the Indiana football game.  And the Purdue football game.  And the Utah basketball game.  And the Bradley basketball game.

I hate this theme.

Edit: I realized this morning that 1998-1999 doesn’t qualify.  The Micron PC Bowl was December of 1999, and we did make the tournament in the spring of 2000.  It was the spring of 1999 that we missed the tournament, and 1998 football didn’t salvage the school year.  That fall we were 3-8 in football, and in the Spring of ’99 we were 14-18 in hoops.  So my list should be expanded to 1981-82, 1995-96, and 1998-99.  Here’s hoping the juniors start to lead, the freshmen start to mature, and we don’t add 2009-10 to the list.