It’s Over December 7, 2009
I don’t really want to dwell on the final play from Saturday. I know that most of you had the same reaction I did – what a fitting end – but a few hours after the game, I was sick for the seniors. I hate that Antonio James had to walk off the field with that feeling. Not just to lose. Not just to lose on a last-second two-point conversion. But to lose on a last second conversion because a 350 lb. offensive guard caught a deflected pass and fell forward. I know 22 year old guys are resilient and all that, but I picture Doug Pilcher taking off his tape with tears in his eyes. They didn’t deserve to go out like that.
That’s all I have to say about that.
Because it’s over. Finished. What should have been at the very least 7-5 is now 3-9. All that talent, all that experience, and three wins.
Not that much talent, you say? Allow me to introduce you to my friend Mark and his graphs:

See those 5 teams floating up there in the upper left? Those are The Underperformers. Michigan, Illinois, Maryland, Colorado, and Louisville. We should all have a banquet over the holidays, watch a few bowl games, and talk about our wasted talent. We could even get Gary Moeller to emcee.
For his data, Mark used the last 4 years recruiting rankings from Rivals (for the x-axis) and the current Sagarin rankings for all FCS teams (for the y-axis). Damning, isn’t it? Loads of talent, a scheme that has been in place for years, an offense returning 9 starters… and three wins.
Where do we fall in the composite recruiting rankings from the last 4 years? Here’s our neighbors:
20. UCLA
21. North Carolina
22. California
23. ILLINOIS
24. Pittsburgh
25. Oklahoma State
26. Virginia Tech
27. Arkansas
28. Texas A&M
29. Oregon
30. Arizona State
Hey, guess what 8 of those 10 teams are doing for the holidays? Bowling. At least we have a friend on the list. We’ll always have 2009, Arizona State.
Since I’m in a statistic mood, let’s see where the final rankings came out on the offensive/defensive categories. First number is nationally, second number is Big Ten rank:
Rushing Offense: 18th (2nd)
Passing Offense: 89th (10th)
Total Offense: 50th (4th)
Scoring Offense: 82nd (8th)
Rushing Defense: 76th (8th)
Passing Defense: 100th (10th)
Total Defense: 91st (11th)
Scoring Defense: 95th (11th)
Yeah, I was surprised that we shot up to 18th in rushing offense. After Juice led the league in passing last year (but also interceptions), we promised to return to establishing the run, and we did. And we won 3 games.
The defensive numbers are putrid. I’ll have much more in Tuesday’s “first in a series of my 19 point plan to fix Illini Football” post, but for now I’ll say this. Everyone must go. No chance Mallory and Disch survive this. (Note: I fully believe Ron Guenther when he says that Zook will stay – he doesn’t have the money to buy him out – so everything in this post and the 19-point series will be working from that assumption: Ron Zook will be our head coach in 2010. Like it or hate it, that’s the reality).
The worst stat on that list? Scoring offense (again). 50th in yards, 82nd in points. That’s a lot of red zone stalls and missed field goals. Poor kick returns resulting in long fields played a role in that, too. Ready for this? We had 50 punt return yards. ON THE SEASON. Oddly, this only put us 114th out of 119. I’d hate to meet those other 5 teams.
You know what? That’s all I can type for now. I could go on and on and on about the failures of 2009 Illinois football, but I’m just an old man yelling at a cloud at this point. We had talent, we had experience, we had a favorable Big Ten schedule… and we won 3 games. That’s all that needs to be said.
But come back tomorrow for the first in a 19 part series on how to fix it!
*sigh*
The axes appear to be flipped for your graph. We should have a high composite recruiting ranking and low Sagarin ranking but the graph shows the opposite.
Two things I’d like to see charted for this season and previous seasons under Zook:
1) turnover margin (like, we only had 5 INTS all season)
2) penalties
Groundhog, it’s like golf, a lower number is better, so the graphs are correct. The #1 team in recruiting and results would end up in the lower left hand corner (see Florida).
I know Ken Pomeroy tracks a “luck” factor for hoops, I wonder if one exists for football? That seems to be another area we’d rank poorly in, as witnessed by the final play of the season.
Got it. Should have looked at the other teams… Florida in the bottom lefthand corner gives it away.
Here is how we fix our problems: Hire a coach from one of the dots on the right side of the red line. Central Michigan, Houston, Cincy, Air Force, Navy, Middle Tennessee State, Connecticut, Nevada, Bowling Green, NIU…
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