Before the season, I was all over this game.  I was pretty sure Penn State was going to struggle a bit on offense, having lost three 1st Team All Big Ten offensive lineman and three fantastic receivers.  And I also figured we’d be pretty dynamic on offense, testing their rebuilt secondary with deep in after deep out.

And then Missouri happened.  And then Ohio State happened.  And then Iowa happened.

The last one bothers me the most.  If Penn State had held on to win on Saturday night, I was prepared to predict an upset this Saturday, 30-0 drubbing at Ohio State or no 30-0 drubbing at Ohio State.  This is Penn State’s first road game, and I was hoping they would stroll into town overconfident and ripe. Unfortunately, Iowa woke them up, and although I still see a close game, I don’t think we can pull this one out.

“A close game?”, you say?  Yes.  Here’s why:

1. Not much Happy in the Valley.

Darryl Clark has already equaled his interception total from 2008.  Evan Royster is averaging only 76 yards per game on the ground.  And they’re 85th in scoring offense.  All of this despite a cupcake schedule in September that never took them away from Beaver Stadium.

Their defense has looked solid so far, as expected.  But that was against the 114th, 93rd, 89th, and 81st best offenses in the country.  And all of these games, again, were in State College.  We’re certainly not much better (82nd), so don’t go expecting the DIA to restart the post-score fireworks.  But we’re facing an offense that looks confused and a defense that is untested.  The door is cracked, ever so slightly.

Did I mention that starting linebacker Sean Lee is out for the game?  I didn’t? Well, neither team will have their starting middle linebacker for this one.  So there.

2. Special Teams.  Yes, Special Teams.

According to this Tom Dienhart article, Penn State is 8th in the Big Ten in punt returns, 11th in kickoff returns, 10th in punting, and 11th in kickoff coverage.   Illinois’ stats are nearly as bad in some (11th in punt returns, 10th in kickoff returns), but we’re 6th in net punting and 1st in the Big Ten in kickoff coverage.  Yes, best in the conference covering kickoffs*.  Get your “Aaron Gress – Special Teams Warrior” t-shirts while they’re still available.

* – We’ve only covered 11 kickoff returns, because, you know, we haven’t really “scored” “touchdowns” or “field goals” that lead to said kickoffs.  So enjoy first place while you can, Illini Nation.

Field position will be huge on Saturday with two struggling offenses.  So if Aaron Gress can single-handedly pin the Lions at their own 9 through an act of superhuman strength, it might give us an edge in the return game.  And I think the last time we had an edge in the return game was 1999.  So there’s that.

Plus, when the league’s worst kickoff coverage unit meets the league’s worst kickoff return unit, somethings gotta give, right? Kind of the whole resistable force meets movable object conundrum, yes?

3. I simply refuse to believe our offense will remain this lost for another game.

You can’t return all of the skill players from a top-20 offense and be this bad the next season.  You just can’t.  It breaks some laws of physics or something.  Eventually, an object will start in motion and stay in motion all the way to the orange part of the football field.  It’s science.

So I’m mildly optimistic (blindly hopeful?) that the sting of the shutout, the home crowd, and the wind (yes, the wind) will provide a boost.  The rain is out of the forecast now, but wind is in, so it’s probably gonna be like the Spring game out there.  And if there’s one thing an Illinois football team is used to practicing in, it’s wind.  Juice has handled wind games fairly well in his career (Northwestern 2007 comes to mind), so I’m hopeful (ridiculously naive?) that Juice is ready for a break-out game.

Of course, when looking to get your offense back in the groove, Penn State is not the ideal opponent.  They match up with our running game really well, with uber-athletic linebackers like Navarro Bowman that can wreak havoc on the read option.  And Larry Johnson is probably the top defensive line coach in the conference (grumble grumble grumble), so our offensive line will have their second consecutive tough test.

Which is why I can’t pick the upset.  I really do think we can keep it close, but I need to see us not shoot our own feet before I hand us a gun.

Penn State 24, Illinois 20