Now We’ll Know

I’m quite pleased with the 7-0 start by the hoops team.  I expected 6-1 at this point (I had my eyes on the Richmond game as the loss), so to survive against ISU and then come back against Maryland is pretty nice.  But I’m still not sure we know anything about this team because I’m pretty sure we haven’t played any tourney teams yet.  I doubt ISU wins the Valley, and Richmond appears to be rebuilding, and Maryland lost to Iona by 26.  So while it’s nice to be 7-0, and it’s nice to get a true road win, we still don’t know much.

Tomorrow, we’ll know.  Is this a plucky young team that might come together like the 2003/04 team and make some noise late in the season?  Or is this more like 2006/07, where a 7-0 start with a few too-close-for-comfort wins fell apart once we played a few ranked teams, eventually leading to a skin-of-our-teeth 12 seed in the tournament?

The 2003/04 comparison is probably unfair – the lightbulb came on in late January for that team and they won something like 47 of their next 50 games.  This team doesn’t have that kind of cohesion or talent (duh), so even mentioning 03/04 is probably unfair.  But the rosters are similar (no seniors on the 03/04 team, only one senior – a transfer – on this team), so it’s not far fetched to claim that we’re in the learning curve stage right now with a hopeful light bulb moment in late January.

But there will probably be a few speed bumps between here and there (if we even get there), which is why I think tomorrow is our first loss.  I’d love to beat Gonzaga and make a serious push towards getting ranked on Monday.  But I can’t shake the thought of Sacre drawing two quick Meyers Leonard fouls and then playing Welcome To Big Time Basketball with Nnanna for the next 17 minutes.  I think we keep it close, but just can’t pull it out in the end.  I mean, Sam Maniscalco can’t make EVERY pressure shot at the end of EVERY game, can he?

Wait, can he?

I Don’t Wanna Know

I’m still avoiding all bowl projections.  2005 me wants to slap 2011 me right about now, but I just can’t bring myself to look at them.  I was so excited about pouring over the “Gator, Outback, or Insight” decision 6 weeks ago that I can’t work up any excitement for “can we somehow avoid the New Mexico Bowl and the New Orleans Bowl and find ourselves in San Francisco on New Years Eve?”

I’m enjoying the fact that it looks like we somehow lucked out of Detroit – OK, FINE, I cheated and read a few tweets on Big Ten bowl projections yesterday – but I’m not sure if Birmingham in early January or New Orleans 15 days from now officially constitutes “going to a bowl game”.  Wait, 2006 me just slapped me again.

It’s so strange to lack excitement for Bowl Selection Sunday.  Also strange: being the only team in NCAA history to head to their bowl game riding a 6 game losing streak.

I’d Like To Know

I keep reading all of this “Sumlin says no to Arizona State” news with a “because he’s already agreed in principle to become the next football coach at the University of Illinois” at the end.  And if I repeat it 35 more times, I might convince myself.

Yes, I know that he’s headed to Texas A&M.  I’m fully aware of our place at the kids table over the holidays.  But it’s never stopped me from dreaming before, and I’m not stopping now.  I was Sumlinning 3 weeks ago, and I’m still a Sumlinning guy today.  I figure I can ride this dream right up through Tuesday when he’s announced in College Station.

After that happens, I’ll go back to thoughts of Narduzzi and Beckman.  I’ve been warming to Narduzzi lately – he was a finalist interviewing with Mike Thomas for the Cincy job in 2006 before Thomas picked Brian Kelly, so why wouldn’t he interview him this time, especially after Michigan State’s defense just finished 3rd in the country.  I’d love to see our team built around that defense.

But truth be told, we probably haven’t even talked about the coach we’ll eventually hire.  Ron Turner came out of left field in 1996, and it’s quite possible we’ll do that again.  Maybe we’ll go the Tressel route and hire an FCS guy.  Maybe we’ll surprise everyone and name Vic Koenning permanent head coach.  Maybe they see that I’m a viable candidate.

Or maybe, just maybe, Kevin Sumlin wants to return to the Big Ten.

I went back and read my preseason prediction today.  On October 1st, I felt really dumb about projecting 6-6.  On November 1st, I still felt like I undershot.  Now, I’m scared to death I hit it on the button.

That makes me think three things:

1) I guess the season kind of played out like many, including me, thought it would.

In that first SOC where I predicted 8-4 but reduced it to 6-6 simply because Martez, Mikel, and Corey left early, I made the point that no team could come back from losing their three top players.  Without Liuget, the defense would struggle against the run and the offense would struggle to break off “chunk” plays.  Where Troy Pollard gets you 4 yards, Mikel Leshoure might have gained 38.

Looking back now, maybe I shouldn’t be upset at how quickly this season fell apart.  When I read my preseason take, it was quite simple: with an easy schedule, this team might have a chance to win 8 games.  But the loss of a big-time tailback and a couple run-stuffers might turn an 8-4 season to 6-6.  How did the season play out?  An easy schedule gave us early wins.  But without a running game, the offense fell apart in the Big Ten.  The end.

2) Who would have ever thought that an Illini fan would be this disgusted with 6-6 (or maybe even 7-5)?

I’ve probably made the point 1,500 times in my life: the screwy advantage to being an Illini football fan is the reduction of expectations.  8-4 at Florida is a disaster.  8-4 at Illinois and you get a statue.  So you’ll never see a more happy fanbase than a group of Illini fans at the Insight Bowl – we’d take 5 years of crappy bowls before we’d complain about the lack of 8 and 9 win seasons.

So pretty much I’m full of crap.  Because we FINALLY have bowl eligibility for two years in a row – a win tomorrow gives us 7 victories in back-to-back years for the first time since Mackovic – and I’m miserable.  5 straight losses, an offense scoring 42 points in a four-game stretch, inept special teams, and I’m miserable.  To the point where I can’t even look at bowl projections.  A disastrous 2-4 finish probably sends us to the Insight Bowl – and now we’ve lost 5 in a row.

My new thing: Illini fans are the only Big Ten fans besides Indiana fans, Minnesota fans, Northwestern fans, and maybe Purdue fans who would be happy with a .500 conference record.  It’s a disaster at Ohio State, but a step forward at Illinois.  That’s my new barometer – get me to .500 in the Big Ten nearly ever year, and I’ll be happy with the direction of the program.  Which means this year I’m miserable.

3) There’s really no difference between this year and 2009.

If we lose tomorrow – and unfortunately, I think we will – that’s a 2-6 Big Ten finish.  Which means this year really isn’t much different than our disaster that was 2009.  That year, we scheduled Missouri, Fresno State, and Cincinnati as our three FBS non-conference opponents, and we lost all three to finish 3-9 on the season.  This year, we scheduled Arkansas State, Western Michigan, and an Arizona State team that, as I type this, just lost to Cal to finish 6-6 on the year, so we’ll finish 6-6 instead of 3-9.

If we lose at Minnesota tomorrow, the only difference between 2009 and 2011 would be the non-conference schedules.  This year, we scheduled three beatable teams, won all three games, and qualified for a bowl.  But I’ll tell you what – it doesn’t feel nearly as satisfying as I thought it would.  The bowl will be nice, and the extra practices will be helpful, but really, when you peel back the layers, we’re having another 2009.  Your move, Mike Thomas.

Minnesota 28, Illinois 27

Wisconsin 41, Illinois 10

Then we get the ball to Leonard, he goes on a mini-run (while swatting away shots at the other end), and I immediately switch to thoughts of a young team putting together a 2003-04 late season run.  I can’t just watch an early season game and think “lots of unknowns with this team – we won’t know anything until December”.  I’m either Sweet 16 or “I hope we make the NIT”.  For some reason, there is no middle ground.

I only saw the final 15 minutes of the game, but from what I saw, I was pretty excited about the freshmen.  Especially Tracy Abrams.  8 points, a team-leading 7 rebounds, a couple steals, and a coast-to-coast layup weaving through traffic that was (dare I say) Frank-like.  Great debut for our point guard of the future (and possibly the present).

Overall, a nice win with a great second-half run to put it away.  As it should be.  On to football.

I’ve tried to shake it all week, but I can’t.  I feel very good about this game.  I think the bye-week is the reason. After a long run from Rantoul through Penn State, this team had been going non-stop.  So three or four days with no practice last week was probably a very good thing.  A chance to get away from football and clear the head.

And this offense needed their heads cleared.  There’s been no rhythm the last 3 games until the very end, and by then it’s been too late.  This was an offense that looked dominant in Rantoul – when they went first string O against first string D, the offense won the battle most of the time.  Now that defense is 6th nationally and the offense is… 55th?  It’s really puzzling.

So this game, in my opinion, needs to be about one thing: welcome back offense.  We need to score early, we need to establish the run, we need to convert third downs, and we need to score touchdowns and not field goals in the redzone.  Easy peasy, right?

The defense will probably face their stiffest challenge yet with Denard Robinson.  So I think Michigan is going to score some points.  It won’t be a 67-65 shootout like last year, but we’re going to need to score 28+ to win.

Speaking of last year, that’s the main reason I think we pull it out tomorrow.  When I sat down with Jeff Allen back in April, he mentioned the Michigan game twice in our little chat.  It’s been circled on his calendar for months.  He said he envisions the blitz they put together on our final 2-point conversion all the time.  He knows what he’d do differently.  He wants a chance to prove it.

And I think he’ll get it tomorrow.  A refreshed, relaxed offense returns to form and wins it even though the defense falters a bit.

Illinois 37, Michigan 34

As many of you know, I grew up in the metro-east, 29 miles from the Arch.  And I now live in the St. Louis area.  As such, I am a St. Louis Cardinals fan.  I’ve mostly kept that on the down low on here because of the stomach turn that all of you Cubs fans just took.  It’s difficult to mix sports allegiances sometimes – I tell people that I’m not a Bears fan, and suddenly they respect my football opinions 12% less.

For some reason, I’ve always felt the need to defend myself with “but I was born and raised in Illinois!”, because most St. Louis sports allegiances are viewed in Champaign as a bit of a crossing of the state lines.  But there are 700,000 people in the metro east (a group, if you ask me, that has been a bit under-served by our marketing department.  700,000 people, nearly all Illini fans, 2 1/2 hours away from Champaign, the second largest concentration of our fanbase outside of Chicagoland, and it feels like the DIA reaches out to Peoria more than the metro east).  That’s a large number of Cardinal-Illini fans.

Where am I going with this.  Yes – distracted.  Last night’s ridiculous baseball game, combined with today’s nerves, combined with tonight’s victory, has me a bit distracted from the task at hand.  I’ve mentioned how the 1983 Illini football team started my love for the school.  Well, the 1982 Cardinals started my love for sports.  I jumped off of the couch for the first time ever when Willie McGee took a home run away from Gorman Thomas.  I cried my first tear over a sporting event when Dave LaPoint dropped a ball while covering first allowing Milwaukee to win Game 5.  It was my first ever experience with the highs and lows of sports.

But I need to say this:  I kinda feel a little cheap right now celebrating this championship.  I’m enjoying it, last night was thrilling, but I’m nowhere near as deserving of this feeling as some of my friends.  Every August, as soon as Camp Rantoul starts, I check out with the Cardinals – thanks for getting me from the Spring Game to Camp Rantoul, guys – and it’s all Illini all the time until April.  So to follow this team to a title in 2006 and now 2011 feels a little cheap.  I enjoy this championship – I would fall to the ground sobbing if an Illini football or basketball team ever won it all.  It hurt with the Cardinals lost to the Red Sox in the 2004 World Series – I was devastatingly crushed beyond recognition when the Illini lost to UNC in the 2005 title game.

One person I am thrilled for right now, another Illini-Cardinals fan, Will Leitch.  He’s a Cardinal fanatic, and when I had a chance to do a Q&A with him last year, he had the following answer to my “what would an Illini title be like for you, and how would that compare to the 2006 World Series” question:

I won’t be as euphoric as I was in 2006, but hang on, hang on, I mean that in a good way. It’s just a basic difference between professional and college sports. Titles just don’t mean as much: They’re not the WHOLE GOAL, not really. I cannot look at highlights of the 2004 World Series, but I could watch highlights of the ’05 NCAA Tournament all day, and not just the Arizona game either. The smaller victories, the comeback wins over Clemson and Northwestern and Seton Hall … I enjoy those more as individual moments, regardless what ended up happening that season. (This is why I still love that 87 team despite what happened with Austin Peay.) I loved Pujols’ homer off Lidge in ’05, but it ultimately didn’t mean as much, because they didn’t win the World Series. We expect more from our pro teams. In college, I can enjoy the experience of knowing that of all the 300-some odd teams in college basketball, this is the one that I cheer for, the one that I know backwards and forwards. The Illini feel like mine: They feel like family. (I told Kiwane Garris this theory once in college, and I’m pretty certain I freaked him out.) I don’t want my family to make a ton of money or become President of the United States: I just want my family to be happy and have fun. That’s how I feel about Illinois basketball.

That said: God, a title would freaking rock.

I think that sums it up well. On to the Penn State game.

OK, so snow.  The chart I looked at earlier in the day showed the snow tapering off around 3:00 or so, so I was thinking the field conditions might improve as the game goes on.  But I just looked again at the same chart, and it currently shows around 8″ total in Happy Valley, with 3 of the inches falling between the hours of 2:00 and 7:00.

So yeah, this will be remembered as That Game In The Snow At Penn State In 2011.  Who does it help?  Easily Penn State in my mind.  We might only be #72 in passing offense, but Penn State is #84.  And it total offense, we’re #45, they’re #76.  A snow game, in my opinion, benefits the team with the poorer offense.  I don’t think anyone is getting to 20 points tomorrow, so in a grind it out game like that, yeah, advantage Penn State.

Our best offensive weapon is Alfred Alonzo Jenkins, and a game played in heavy wet snow probably takes away both passing games.  With their #8 defense and our offensive line struggles, I’m thinking we’ll have real issues moving the ball.

Now, if the snow holds off, or, better yet, if it tapers off, then I think we can do some things in the passing game.  Even if the field is covered with snow, you can still throw the ball.  But if it’s a driving heavy snow with big wet flakes, yeah, passing will be nearly impossible.

So I guess that’s where I’ve landed.  Low scoring affair.  Field position matters.  We lead the Big Ten in fumbles, and we’re facing a fantastic defense in the snow.  I’d love to say that we rebound from this skid tomorrow, but I’m more thinking we skid to a loss.

Penn State 13, Illinois 6

My frustrations with the “unique negativity” in Memorial Stadium.  My frustrations with a head coach that doesn’t instill confidence in the crowd.  My frustrations with our special teams.  My frustrations with our nerdstats.  It’s been a tough week personally due to some things you don’t need to hear about, and looking back over the last 4 posts, it looks like I’ve been Frustrated Frankie.  Truth be told, it felt good to get it all out.  Thanks for reading – if you’re still reading.

So now, how to beat Purdue.  We’re more talented, we have a better quarterback, we have better line play, and we have a better defense.  Against Purdue last year, Mikel Leshoure only ran for 23 yards on 15 carries, by far his worst game of the season… and we beat them 44-10. And we led that game 37-0 after 40 minutes – it could have been 58-0 if we had Bret Bielema on the sideline.

So if it’s a straight up game – turnovers are even, no defensive touchdowns, no touchdowns on returns, etc. – we should win going away. The question I’ve been asking all week: can we play a straight up game?  Better yet, can we play a game where field position and turnovers slant in our favor?  I feel like if we played a game like that, we’d win 58-0.

That’s where I’m at tonight.  I want to put all of this stuff behind us – all of the things that make the statistics hate us despite our 6-1 start – and start playing smart, efficient football.  My goal for tomorrow is to see composure.  Actually, let’s get specific with some goals:

1. +2 in turnovers

I don’t care if we turn it over 4 times but they give it back 6 times, I want to see +2 in turnovers.  Our last 5 games we’ve been -3, even, -2, -1, and even.  And that -2 in the Northwestern game was really more a -3; our only turnover created was falling on the ball after they tried to go all Cal/Stanford on the final play.

5 straight games without winning the turnover battle?  We’re due, right?

2. A pick-six

OK, now I’m getting greedy.  We only have one interception in Big Ten play – the off-the-helmet pick by Steve Hull at Indiana – so we’re absolutely due for an INT to fall into our hands, especially with Purdue’s poor quarterback play.  So here’s my vote for one of those interceptions to go the other way.

I’ll pick Justin Green to be the one who pulls it off.  He’s played better and better as the season has gone on – he’s due for a chance to show off that speed with the ball in his hands.

3. Donovonn Young 125 yards

Actually, I don’t care which tailback gets to 125.  But if one of them does, it means our running game was effective.  And if our running game was effective, that means we controlled both the clock and field position.  And when we do that, we win football games.  It’s time to have a dominating running performance.  Given that pass-happy Notre Dame was able to run for 287 yards on Purdue, here’s hoping we can do the same.

I would absolutely love to see a fumble-free, violent-running, tackler-dragging, 17 for 126 performance from The Truckmaster.  He’s our feature back next year, and if he wants to get a head start with 5 games left in this season, I’m down.

4. Smart decisions in the passing game

As much as I enjoyed the 391 yards passing against Northwestern, let’s face it, it was Northwestern’s pass defense.  There’s a reason Penn State fans are thinking they’ll be able to throw the ball for the first time in two years tomorrow.  I hope we’re not too in love with the passing game after those performances against Northwestern and Indiana.  Because turnovers in the passing game were the reason we lost to Ohio State.

I’m not proposing that we dial back the passing game to 2010 levels.  AJ Jenkins is our best offensive weapon, and we need the ball in his hands.  I’m just asking that we be cautions and methodical.  Again, if we play a straight-up game with no turnovers and equal field position, I don’t think Purdue can beat us.  So let’s not take a dozen risks throwing the ball and possibly set them up in our territory a few times.

Smart, efficient football.  That’s what I want to see.  I that’s what I think we’ll get.  We’re due.

Illinois 31, Purdue 20

It was a fun little trip.  When I got the book, I think I mostly read through the “good” stuff.  Red Grange… Ray Eliot’s 1951 team… Butkus in the Rose Bowl… Mike White resurrecting the program… you get the idea.  This time, I decided to read through everything, focusing on the rough patches.  This wasn’t as easy – a book like that focuses on the good and sweeps the bad under the rug – but I wanted to get a true idea of our past.

And, as you may be able to guess, it wasn’t pretty.  Bob Asmussen tried to focus on the positives, but there were obviously too many negatives to ignore. Like this:

Moeller’s best season was his first.  The team went 3-8, and he coached All-Big Ten linebacker John Sullivan.  The New Jersey native broke Studwell’s year-old school tackle record with 202 stops.  After making another 143 tackles as a senior, Sullivan left Illinois as the school’s career record-holder, a mark broken 16 years later by Butkus Award winner Dana Howard.

The ultimate Moeller game was a 0-0 tie against Northwestern in 1978.  Three decades later, Illinois fans still talk about that game for its offensive futility.

When the highlight of your three years as head coach was “coached an All Big Ten linebacker”, you know you were lucky to keep your job for 3 years.

The next section starts out with the hiring of Mike White and tosses out some crazy statistics: in the three seasons before White was hired, Illinois averaged 12.1 points per game and never scored more than 29. One more time – averaged 12.1 points per game.

I know it was a different era, and recruiting had sunk to an all-time low, but for some reason, this statistic was what I needed to hear.  In 19 games under Paul Petrino, we’ve scored 631 points.  In 33 games (3 full seasons!) under Gary Moeller, we scored 400.    If Petrino stays for three years (please oh please oh please), by the time he reaches his 33rd game, he’ll be somewhere close to 1,100 points.

The takeaway: I’ve not been thankful enough.

We’re 6-0.  We’re going to a bowl game.  We’re ranked 15/16.  We’re favored over Ohio State at home.  We have a legitimate shot at the inaugural Big Ten Championship Game, and yet here I am, all week, worrying that “it’s going to happen again”.  Worried that Lucy might pull the football.

Tonight, I reached “so what if she does”.  Yes, we might lose tomorrow.  But at this very moment, I’m not thinking about it nor nervous.  I’m thinking about Rantoul, and Spring Ball, and all of the focused, intense practices I got to watch.  These young men worked harder than any Illini team I’ve ever observed, and that probably deserves more than my Charlie Brown-ing.

I’m thinking about the Texas Bowl, and a fairly thorough demolition of a team that’s proving this year to be explosive on offense.  I always used to talk about what we were missing after another 5 win season – missing the jump start that bowl practices could give to a team.  Well, this year, we got the jump start, rolled our bowl opponent, and kept the momentum going right through the first 6 games of this season.

I’m thinking about trailing late in the first half of the Arkansas State game before Darius Millines burst out of a break, shook his one-on-one defender, and gave us a lead we wouldn’t relinquish.  I’m thinking about trailing Arizona State in the fourth quarter, trailing Western Michigan at halftime, and trailing Northwestern 28-10… and finding a way to win all three games.

I’m thinking about how we’ve been in every single game the last 2 seasons – seriously, the last blowout loss was maybe Cincy in 2009 (although that game we only lost by 13).  Our worst loss last year was Michigan State, and we led that game at halftime.

I’m thinking I need to stop being Charlie Brown.  We’re probably going to lose 3 of our next 6 games, and I’m OK with that tonight.  And I really don’t feel like I’m hedging.  I’m ridiculously proud of this team and how they’ve come together to fight in every game.

I honestly sat down here expecting to reach the end of this post predicting a loss.  I was worried all day that this would be Nathan’s Michigan State game from last year, where solid athletes and coordinators frustrate him into a few game-changing interceptions.  But right now, I’m not thinking about that.  I’m thinking about my 6-0 team that’s favored to win at home over Ohio State.  I’m thinking they need me on that wall.  I’m thinking it’s great to cheer for a team like this.

Illinois 21, Ohio State 17

Against the Fightin’ Fitzees, we threw the interception in the endzone. We had a phantom offensive pass interference call that took a touchdown off the scoreboard. We gave them the ball at midfield on a bad pitch. They converted a ridiculous 4th down. We let them get 5 touchdowns in 5 scoring opportunities and didn’t force a single field goal try. And to top it all off, we fumble at our own 35 with three minutes to go, leading to the go-ahead score. Yet we WON.

Coming off a game where we were -3 in turnover ratio and WON, I feel a bit invincible in the next game (especially when the next game is against 1-4 Indiana). Like if we play our worst game of the season and turn the ball over 4 times, we’ll still find a way to win.

That’s where I’m at tonight. If we’re +3 in turnovers, we win by 28+. If turnovers are even, we still win by 10-14. If turnovers are -3, I still think we win.  This is an Indiana team that is implementing new offensive and defensive systems – and those systems couldn’t beat 1-4 North Texas.  I’m pretty sure they’re headed for a 1-11 season – teams headed for 1-11 seasons can’t usually win even if the turnovers are +3 in their favor.

So I feel good about this game for that reason, and for the fact that we’re due for a game where everything clicks.  We force a few fumbles, the secondary grabs a few interceptions, and the offense holds onto the ball and grinds out some yards.  We need that kind of game going into the Ohio State contest.  I think we get that kind of game tomorrow.

(I just wandered off to message board land – I see some people posting that I need to hurry up and finish so that they can go to bed.  OK – speed round.  I will set my timer for 10 minutes, type as many words as I can in those 10 minutes, and then publish this post.  Here we go.  Starting…. now.)

I AM worried about this game in that it’s our first road game.  We’re in quite a routine of late – Friday walkthrough, maybe a team movie, curfew, get up at the same time, arrive at the stadium, get ready in a familiar locker room, etc etc.  Now we’re staying in Indianapolis, getting dressed in a strange locker room, and wearing white.  How will our players react when a turnover goes Indiana’s way and the crowd starts to get into it?  (Wait, we’re playing Indiana – their crowd is probably still standing in the lobby of the Other Assembly Hall waiting to high five Tom Crean.  Please strike the crowd comment.)

But on the other hand, isn’t it a great thing that our first game comes at the stadium of a team that might go 1-11?  This had to be how Purdue fans felt in 2003-2006 – “I’d be scared of this road game, but it’s only Illinois.”  And they could say that with supreme confidence because we were, in fact, only Illinois.

Now we’re ILLINOIS.  #16 Illinois.  Our-quarterback-is-#8-nationally-in-passing-efficiency-and-we’re-a-RUNNING-team Illinois.  #6 in the country in sacks Illinois.  “Close game? P’shaw – we got this” Illinois.

I know that many of you read that and think “dude, don’t jinx”.  Two things: 1) There’s no such thing as a jinx when you’re a blogger sitting at home that has nothing to do with the game.  And 2) If I can’t be confident before the Indiana game – 1-4 Indiana with a loss to 1-4 North Texas Indiana – then when can I be confident?

80 seconds left.  Final Thought: I’m in.  Tomorrow is Donovonn Young’s breakout game.  We really, really want to get the ground game going, and with Jason Ford coming off that fumble and Young getting more acclimated to college ball, I think it’s tomorrow.  Young clears 135 yards, and we win going away.

Illinois 41, Indiana 17

(19 seconds to spare)

One thought has gripped me all day.  Could I really write the “He Started It” post, finish it with “until tomorrow”, and then predict an Illini loss in the SOC post?  I try to hold off on any predictions about the game until this moment – the game is hours away and I’ve digested everything about out opponent and the current state of our team.  So all I’ve thought about all afternoon is how it would look if my nerves tell me tonight that tomorrow is loss number one.

What a horribly formed paragraph.  Too bad I can’t go back and edit it.

So can I?  Can I predict a loss?  Well, I could easily see it happening.  Here, I’ll make a list of why Northwestern might beat us tomorrow, and then I’ll make a list of why we’ll beat them.  And whichever list looks better will get the winning prediction.  This is kind of what I did in 10th grade deciding between Gretchen and Lauren, except I hadn’t figured out that neither Gretchen nor Lauren like me. Also, I’m old enough to have liked a girl in 10th grade named Gretchen?

Why Northwestern might win

• Dan Persa returns.  And Dan Persa is really, really good.  He was the best quarterback in the Big Ten last year, and he completes a ridiculously high percentage of his passes.  If he gets in a rhythm with Ebert or one of his other receivers, how do we stop him?  You know how WMU’s Carder kept finding seam after seam after seam in the first half last week?  Persa could do that all. day. long. tomorrow.  Rust or no rust.
• Even if Persa can’t go, or even if he’s limited, they have a fun little second option to go to in Kain Colter.  Sure, he can’t throw to save his life, but how will we handle a mobile QB?  We haven’t faced one yet.  What if he gets Northwestern’s running game in a rhythm.  We could get rhythm’d to death.
• All week all I’ve heard is how Army ran for a bazillion yards, and we ran for a bazillion last year, so it’s a stone cold lock that we’re going to run for two bazillion yards tomorrow.  Every time I read a preview like that – seriously, every time a game sets up like this – it doesn’t play out to that script.  What do we do when Northwestern sells out to the run and makes us punt early?
• Most importantly, Northwestern has had two weeks to prepare and they WANT this.  They had everything set up last year – a purple sign at Wrigley, a sold out stadium, and ESPN Gameday in town.  It was their moment.  And we stole it from them (not only stole it, but embarrassed them).  They gave up 519 rushing yards.  And Lee Corso had picked us.  They want this game bad.

Why Illinois might win

• We have a better defense.  Possibly by a factor of 7.  Northwestern’s defense really hasn’t recovered from the Wrigley game last year – including that game, they’re giving up 478 yards per game in their last 6 games.  And that includes this year’s opponents of Army, EIU, and Boston College.  Until they hold a decent team under 400 yards, why would anyone assume they can crank up the emotion and put a stop to our offense?
• This defense held Brock Osweiler and Arizona State to 14 points (they scored 37 on Missouri and 43 on Southern Cal).  Why would I not expect us to shut down a rusty Dan Persa or a all-run Kain Colter?  What wins Big Ten games?  Running game and defense.  Who has the better run game?  Illinois.  Who has the better defense?  Illinois
• We had our letdown last week (and we still won!).  If there’s one thing we’ve been consistent at in our inconsistency over the last few years, it’s rebounding from the rebound game with a solid performance.  Look no further than Wrigley Field last year.  We were all worried about the hangover after the emotional Michigan game, and it happened – a home lost to Minnesota.  And just as we wondered if that loss was going to take a bowl away, BOOM, we’re up 14-0 on Northwestern before some people took their seats.  I think we come out fired up.
• Um, hello, we’re #22 in the nation and more than a touchdown favorite.  Did I ever stop to think that this might actually be a really good Illinois team?  Like, really, really good?

I think that’s where I’m landing here.  What, am I going to sit here every Friday night and bite my fingernails?  How silly would I feel if we had a 9-3 season but I looked back to see how worried I was about our road trip to 1-4 Indiana?  Getting to be confident about and Illinois team doesn’t come along very often.  Why not enjoy it while it’s here?

That’s it – we’re winning this game tomorrow.  I wanted 5-1 before the Ohio State game, and now I can go into the Indiana game playing with house money.  In Nathan I trust.

Illinois 33, Northwestern 16

What, you want me to talk football?  This is a Stream Of Consciousness post – not only do I talk about whatever is on my mind, by rule, I can’t go back and erase it.

So, Western Michigan.  My first thought – AJ Jenkins will have a big game.  Because I remember an interview a few years ago where Jenkins talked about how the trip in the 2008 Western Michigan game still haunts him.  For those unaware, we trailed WMU by 6 with less than 2 minutes to go, but Juice hit AJ Jenkins on a 50 yard bomb.  AJ had to kind take himself off balance to catch the ball, and because of that, he couldn’t keep his footing and fell at the 20.  Had he stayed on his feet, he probably scores and we go bowling.  Instead, Juice threw 4 consecutive incompletions and we lost by 6.

Do I blame AJ for the loss?  Absolutely not.  Given the twist he made to catch the ball, I don’t think anyone could have kept their balance.  But AJ thinks he could have kept his balance, and because of that, I think he really wants this game tomorrow.

And so do I.  Not only do I not want the words “Western Michigan” to make me wince, I want to be 4-0.  I want this ridiculous 1951 stat to go away.  I want to know that we can still go bowling even if we go 2-6 in the Big Ten.  I want to climb into the top-20.  I want a great close to the recruiting class.  I want to go to a bowl game in Florida on New Years Day.  Oops, scratch that – January 2nd (stupid NFL).  I want to go to the Outback Bowl and then leave immediately after so that our boys can be at school on the morning of January 3rd.

See, I can’t say these things without wincing like AJ when he thinks of the Western Michigan game.  We were, what, a few pinball interceptions from losing to Arizona State last weekend?  They outgained us 362-240 – shouldn’t I leave a game like that concerned?  Say the officials called the kinda sorta late hit on Jonathan Brown on ASU’s final drive (when Osweiler slid to the ground).  They get the ball in our territory, kick a field goal, win it in overtime, and we’re having completely different conversations this week.

OK, I need to stop this.  The bipolar behavior of an Illini football fan has gripped me. Every positive is a reason to be fearful.  Every devastation comes with “but there’s hope for the future”.  If we’re in a BCS Bowl, it means the basement is approaching.  If there are zero expectations, expect the Rose Bowl.  From 1996 until 2009, we went from the basement to the roof to the basement to the roof to the basement.  All over the span of 14 seasons.  Because of that, I’m fearful we’ll beat #18 Arizona State and then lose to Western Michigan (and then beat Northwestern by 30).

But I’ve been confident all week, and that’s where I’ll settle.  We’ll likely stub our toe and lose one of the next three games, but it won’t be this one.

Illinois 39, Western Michigan 21