With signing day coming up next Wednesday, I thought I might go through the three-deep again to see if our current class is lining up with our future needs.  I’m not gonna lie – Terry Hawthorne, Michael Buchanan, and Akeem Spence flirting with the NFL but returning to school makes this three-deep much more attractive.

I have to make a few guesses with this depth chart.  We don’t really know the schemes that Gonzales/Beatty and Banks will run, so I really don’t know if I should put down four wide receivers or two tight ends.  So I’ll try to cover all positions on offense (except for fullback), and I’ll return us to a basic 4-3 defense with no bandits or Busseybackers.  I’m also taking out the weak/strong offensive line and going back to having a left tackle and a right tackle.

QB: Nathan Scheelhaase (JR) / Reilly O’Toole (SO) / Chase Haslett (rs-FR)
RB: Donovonn Young (SO) / Josh Ferguson (rs-FR) / Ean Days (SO)
TE: Evan Wilson (JR) / Jon Davis (SO) / Justin Lattimore (JR) / Matt LaCosse (SO)
LT: Simon Cvijanovic (rs-SO) / Patrick Flavin (rs-FR) / Chris Boles (rs-FR)
LG: Hugh Thornton (SR) / Tyler Sands (SR) / Ted Karras (rs-FR)
C: Graham Pocic (SR) / Jake Feldmeyer (JR) / Tony Durkin (rs-FR)
RG: Alex Hill (rs-SO) / Shawn Afryl (rs-SO) / Kevin Griffin (rs-SO walkon)
RT: Michael Heitz (rs-SO) / Corey Lewis (SR) / Scott McDowell (rs-FR)
WR1: Darius Millines (JR) / Jeremy Whitlow (rs-FR) / Kenny Knight (rs-FR)
WR2: Spencer Harris (JR) / Jordan Frysinger (rs-FR) / Fritz Rock (rs-SO)
WR3: Ryan Lankford (JR) / Miles Osei (JR) / Jake Kumerow (SO-walkon)

DE: Michael Buchanan (SR) / Justin Staples (SR) / Brandon Denmark (JR)
DT: Glenn Foster (SR) / Jake Howe (rs-SO) / Chris O’Connor (rs-FR)
DT: Akeem Spence (JR) / Austin Teitsma (rs-SO) / John Valentine (rs-FR walkon)
DE: Tim Kynard (JR) / DJ Woods (rs-SO) / Kenny Nelson (rs-FR)
WLB: Houston Bates (rs-SO) / Henry Dickinson (SO) / Beau Sullivan (JR walkon)
MLB: Jonathan Brown (JR) / Ralph Cooper (SO) / Alex Porter (SO walkon)
SLB: Ashante Williams (SR) / Earnest Thomas (rs-SO) / Zephaniah Grimes (rs-FR)
CB: Terry Hawthorne (SR) / Eaton Spence (rs-FR) / Kaeman Mitchell (JR walkon)
FS: Steve Hull (JR) / Ben Mathis (JR-walkon) / Austin Abner (rs-FR walkon)
SS: Supo Sanni (SR) / Patrick Nixon-Youman (SR) / Nick North (rs-FR)
CB: Justin Green (SR) / Valdon Cooper (SO) / Jack Ramsey (SR)

K: Taylor Zalewski (rs-FR) / Nick Immekus (rs-SO) / Brennen Van Mieghem (rs-FR)
P: Justin DuVernois (SO) / Brad Janitz (rs-SO) / Garrett Stroup (rs-FR)

So next year looks very defense-y.  2013 looks very offense-y.  And 2014 looks very scary.

With Hawthorne, Buchanan, and Spence back, Tim Banks has a lot to work with next year.  The loss of Mercilus, Thomas, Wilson, and Henry will be large – I have no idea who will be the nickel corner next year (Jack Ramsey?) – but there are some legitimate stars in Jonathan Brown, Terry Hawthorne, Michael Buchanan, and Akeem Spence.  Get a few big senior years from Justin Green and Glenn Foster and maybe this defense won’t take that large of a step back.

But in 2013, from this view, yikes.  Gone are Buchanan, Foster, Williams, Hawthorne, Sanni, Green, and PNY, with a good chance Akeem Spence declares early and also the possibility of Jonathan Brown leaves. Good luck, Tim Banks.

The good news is, the offense should be solid in 2013.  Next year we’ll likely only have 2 seniors contributing – Hugh Thornton and Graham Pocic.  Every other position – even going 4 deep at tailback and 6 deep at receiver – there are no seniors.  What we see next year is basically what we’ll see in 2013.

But in 2014, from this view, yikes.  We’ll lose almost all of our passing game (Scheelhaase and possibly his top 4 targets) and maybe a few more offensive linemen.  Reilly O’Toole will have to develop a rapport with a whole new crop of receivers.

Now, at this point I realize the ridiculousness of projecting the 2014 team.  60% of those players aren’t even on the roster yet.  But that’s why I’m doing this.  I’m trying to find our needs in a few years.  Football recruiting isn’t about next year – it’s about recruiting for 2-3 seasons from now.  What are our needs then?  In order:

1. Secondary.  After next season, we’ll have 4 scholarship players in the secondary: Steve Hull, Valdon Cooper, Eaton Spence, and Nick North.  We should have 8 or 9.
2. Defensive Line.  Defensive Tackle more than Defensive End, but we need both.
3. Running Back.  No seniors, no juniors.  At tailback right now we have Donovonn Young, Josh Ferguson, and converted safety Ean Days.  We should have 5 or 6 on the roster.
4. Offensive Tackle.  We have a lot of guard-and-center types, but I only see 4 true tackles.  I’d like to see two more.

So how does the current class break down?

QB – 0
RB – 2
OL – 3 (2 OG/C, 1 OT)
TE – 0
WR – 3
DE – 0
DT – 2
LB – 2
CB – 1
S – 2
K – 1

Combine those two lists, and here’s where it leaves us: with issues defending the pass.  In a few years we’ll be woefully short at defensive end, cornerback, and safety. We’ve spent a lot of time recruiting bandits (undersized defensive ends that can also line up on a slot receiver like Brandon Denmark and Darrius Caldwell), and now we’ll be asking them to play more of a traditional defensive end role.

On offense, we’ve addressed the tailback situation (although we’ll need two more tailbacks next year), but I still feel we’re short at offensive tackle.  And what happens at receiver after the Millines/Lankford/Harris trio graduates?  One more thing – we’ll need a QB in next year’s class who can come in and understudy for a few years.

So in the next 5 days, I’d sure love to close on a few defensive linemen (I’m looking at you, Vincent Valentine) and maybe another cornerback (hi there, Sean Draper).  And next year, a QB, a few offensive tackles, a stud receiver, a monster defensive end, two athletic corners, and a ballhawking safety are desired, nay, required.  It’s only the most important recruiting class of your career – no pressure, Coach Beckman.

This year, I’m rushing things a bit and putting together the three-deep a week before the season ends.  Because next Monday, when the inevitable happens, I want the coaching candidates to find their way to this blog and see that we do, in fact, have a lot of talent returning next season.

OK, those candidates probably won’t end up here.  But they might.  When you search “Illini Football Depth Chart” these days, Alioneye.com is the 9th result. 9th! A few more years at this and I might move up to 7th.  And that’s when the big bucks start rolling in.

So right to it.  My 2012 Three-Deep.  Because Two-Deeps are for Purple People.

QB: Nathan Scheelhaase (JR) / Reilly O’Toole (SO) / Chase Haslett (rs-FR)
RB: Donovonn Young (SO) / Josh Ferguson (rs-FR) / Ean Days (SO)
FB: Jay Prosch (JR) / Zach Becker (rs-SR) / Chris Willett (SR)
TE: Evan Wilson (JR) / Jon Davis (SO) / Justin Lattimore (JR)
Weak OT: Simon Cvijanovic (rs-SO) / Patrick Flavin (rs-FR) / Chris Boles (rs-FR)
Weak OG: Hugh Thornton (SR) / Tyler Sands (SR) / Ted Karras (rs-FR)
Center: Graham Pocic (SR) / Jake Feldmeyer (JR) / Tony Durkin (rs-FR)
Strong OG: Alex Hill (rs-SO) / Shawn Afryl (rs-SO) / Kevin Griffin (rs-SO walkon)
Strong OT: Michael Heitz (rs-SO) / Corey Lewis (SR) / Scott McDowell (rs-FR)
WR1: Darius Millines (JR) / Jeremy Whitlow (rs-FR) / Kenny Knight (rs-FR)
WR2: Spencer Harris (JR) / Jordan Frysinger (rs-FR) / Fritz Rock (rs-SO)
WR3: Ryan Lankford (JR) / Miles Osei (JR) / Jake Kumerow (SO-walkon)

Bandit: Michael Buchanan (SR) / Justin Staples (SR) / Brandon Denmark (JR)
DT: Glenn Foster (SR) / Jake Howe (rs-SO) / Chris O’Connor (rs-FR)
DT: Akeem Spence (JR) / Austin Teitsma (rs-SO) / John Valentine (rs-FR walkon)
DE: Whitney Mercilus (SR) / Tim Kynard (JR) / DJ Woods (rs-SO)
WLB: Houston Bates (rs-SO) / Henry Dickinson (SO) / Beau Sullivan (JR walkon)
MLB: Jonathan Brown (JR) / Ralph Cooper (SO) / Alex Porter (SO walkon)
SLB: Ashante Williams  (SR) / Earnest Thomas (rs-SO) / Zephaniah Grimes (rs-FR)
CB: Terry Hawthorne (SR) / Eaton Spence (rs-FR) / Kaeman Mitchell (JR walkon)
FS: Steve Hull (JR) / Ben Mathis (JR-walkon) / Austin Abner (rs-FR walkon)
SS: Supo Sanni (SR) / Patrick Nixon-Youman (SR) / Nick North (rs-FR)
CB: Justin Green (SR) / Valdon Cooper (SO) / Jack Ramsey (SR)

K: Taylor Zalewski (rs-FR) / Nick Immekus (rs-SO) / Brennen Van Mieghem (rs-FR)
P: Justin DuVernois (SO) / Brad Janitz (rs-SO) / Garrett Stroup (rs-FR)

Immediate impression: holy best defense in a long, long time.  Immediate thought after that: Mercilus and Hawthorne are totally off to the NFL, aren’t they?  Where I settled after that: If they’re gone, I still trust Vic to put together a solid defense with what’s remaining there – just not as good as this year.  Panic moment soon thereafter: what if Vic is out the door with a coaching change?  Depressing thought that now haunts me: with a new scheme, and if Mercilus and Hawthorne are gone, the defense might take a big step back next year.  Why am I putting together this depth chart again?

A few more thoughts:

• I’m moving Miles Osei to receiver.  His move to kickoff returner was the first sign that we want to get this quick athlete on the field as soon as possible.  Ooh – thought I just had.  Miles Osei, free safety?
• I really don’t know what to make of Corey Lewis.  I feel like I’m going to read an article next August saying that Corey Lewis is “nearly 90% and is almost certain to return to the field by October”.  At this point, I think we just have to assume his injury will prevent him from ever finding the field.
• That offensive line scares me at this point.  With no Lewis, we’d need both Heitz and Cvijanovic to step up.  And while I like Alex Hill as a future big, mobile, get-out-and-hit-you Jon Asamoah-type, he’s still very green.  Pocic and Thornton will be the anchors, but both struggled at times this year.  Prognosis: negative.
• I feel pretty good about wide receiver even with AJ leaving.  As you know, I think Darius Millines can be AJ 2.0, and Harris and Lankford will both enter their upperclassman years with lots of experience.  And I’ve stated before that I’m a fan of Jordan Frysinger and Jeremy Whitlow.  With all of these options (including tall guys like Knight and Kumerow and a wildcard in Osei), I think we’ll be just fine at receiver.
• The great news: that’s an experienced, seasoned, could-be-awesome defense right there.  The awful news: at this moment, the 2013 and 2014 defenses look frightening.  We will really, really need some sophomores to emerge next fall.  Right now it looks like we might have one of the best defenses in the conference next year.  And one of the worst the following year.
• All those defensive walkons in the three-deep tell us one thing: we really need to land some solid defenders in the 2012 class.  Specifically, corners and defensive linemen.
• We really need some tailbacks in this recruiting class.  Like, 4 of them.
• Placekicker is wide open.  I put Zalewski in there mostly because of one kicking website that had him highly ranked in high school.  But it will be an open competition next summer between 3 or 4 guys.

Who judges that competition: TBD.

I know one thing – I’m counting the minutes until I get to Rantoul. I’ve decided to go for week #2 this year – start with the Saturday night scrimmage and stay through Thursday morning. I want to see what Rantoul looks like when the freshman start to make a move in the second week of camp. So this year, I’m starting with the scrimmage instead of ending with the scrimmage. And then I’m sticking around for 5 practices (if the anticipation doesn’t kill me first, that is).

But with the first tweets leaking out saying that Trulon Henry is listed as a linebacker (which means they’ve moved him forward with Ashante Williams suspended for the DUI), I think it’s time to update the three-deep. With Ashante suspended, I’m leaving him off for now.

Starters are in bold, true freshmen are in italics.

QB: Nathan Scheelhaase (SO) / Miles Osei (SO) / Reilly O’Toole (FR)
RB: Jason Ford (SR) / Troy Pollard (SR) / Bud Golden (SO)
FB: Jay Prosch (SO) / Zach Becker (SR) / Chris Willett (JR)
TE: Evan Wilson (SO) / Eddie Viliunas (JR) / Justin Lattimore (SO)
Weak OT: Jeff Allen (SR) / Simon Cvijanovic (rs-FR) / Patrick Flavin (FR)
Weak OG: Hugh Thornton (JR) / Tyler Sands (JR) / Andrew Carter (SO)
Center: Graham Pocic (JR) / Jake Feldmeyer (SO) / Tony Durkin (FR)
Strong OG: Jack Cornell (SR) / Alex Hill (rs-FR) / Shawn Afryl (rs-FR)
Strong OT: Michael Heitz (rs-FR) / Corey Lewis (JR) / Nate Swanson (SO-walkon)
WR1: AJ Jenkins (SR) / Darius Millines (SO) / Anthony Williams (rs-FR)
WR2: Fred Sykes (SR) / Spencer Harris (SO) / Fritz Rock (rs-FR)
WR3: Ryan Lankford (SO) / Brandon Clear (SR) / Jake Kumerow (FR-walkon)

Bandit: Michael Buchanan (JR) / Justin Staples (JR) / Darrius Caldwell (FR)
DT: Craig Wilson (SR) / Wisdom Onyegbule (SR-walkon) / Jake Howe (rs-FR)
DT: Akeem Spence (SO) / Austin Teitsma (rs-FR) / Chris Jones (FR)*
DE: Whitney Mercilus (JR) / Glenn Foster (JR) / Tim Kynard (SO)
WLB: Jonathan Brown (SO) / Houston Bates (rs-FR) / Henry Dickinson (FR)
MLB: Ian Thomas (SR) / Brandon Denmark (SO) / Ralph Cooper (FR)
SLB: Trulon Henry (SR) / Earnest Thomas (rs-FR) / Zephaniah Grimes (FR)
CB: Terry Hawthorne (JR) / Miami Thomas (SR) / Eaton Spence (FR)
FS: Steve Hull (SR) /  Ben Mathis (SO-walkon) / Austin Abner (FR)
SS: Supo Sanni (JR) / Patrick Nixon-Youman (JR) / Nick North (FR)
CB: Tavon Wilson (SR) / Justin Green (JR) / Jack Ramsey (JR)

K: Derek Dimke (SR) / Nick Immekus (rs-FR) / Brennen Van Mieghem (FR)
P: Justin DuVernois (FR) / Brad Janitz (rs-FR) / Matt Eller (SR)

*I’m not sure what’s going on with Chris Jones, but none of it is good.  He’s currently in jail, so he belongs nowhere near this three-deep.  But I like my three-deeps to be complete, with every slot filled in, and he’s all we’ve got.  If he’s not there (and he won’t be), we just don’t have a 6th defensive tackle.  Unless there’s a new freshman (and there might be), we don’t even have a walkon.

((Pushes button, raising defensive line concerns to DEFCON 3))

Full credit for that image goes to my friend Nate.  Who should TOTALLY be making funnies on the internet for a living.

Well, there’s also the photographer he grabbed the image from. He/she should probably get some credit, too.

QB: Nathan Scheelhaase (SO) / Miles Osei (SO) / Reilly O’Toole (FR)
RB: Jason Ford (SR) / Troy Pollard (SR) / Bud Golden (SO)
FB: Jay Prosch (SO) / Zach Becker (SR) / Chris Willett (JR)
TE: Evan Wilson (SO) / Eddie Viliunas (JR) / Justin Lattimore (SO)
Weak OT: Jeff Allen (SR) / Simon Cvijanovic (rs-FR) / Patrick Flavin (FR)
Weak OG: Hugh Thornton (JR) / Tyler Sands (JR) / Andrew Carter (SO)
Center: Graham Pocic (JR) / Jake Feldmeyer (SO) / Tony Durkin (FR)
Strong OG: Jack Cornell (SR) / Alex Hill (rs-FR) / Shawn Afryl (rs-FR)
Strong OT: Michael Heitz (rs-FR) / Corey Lewis (JR) / Nate Swanson (SO-walkon)
WR1: AJ Jenkins (SR) / Darius Millines (SO) / Anthony Williams (rs-FR)
WR2: Fred Sykes (SR) / Spencer Harris (SO) / Fritz Rock (rs-FR)
WR3: Ryan Lankford (SO) / Jake Kumerow (rs-FR) / Jeremy Whitlow (FR)

Bandit: Michael Buchanan (JR) / Justin Staples (JR) / Darrius Caldwell (FR)
DT: Craig Wilson (SR) / Wisdom Onyegbule (SR-walkon) / Jake Howe (rs-FR)
DT: Akeem Spence (SO) / Austin Teitsma (rs-FR) / Clint Tucker (FR)
DE: Whitney Mercilus (JR) / Glenn Foster (JR) / Tim Kynard (SO)
WLB: Jonathan Brown (SO) / Houston Bates (rs-FR) / Henry Dickinson (FR)
MLB: Ian Thomas (SR) / Brandon Denmark (SO) / Ralph Cooper (FR)
SLB: Ashante Williams (JR) / Earnest Thomas (rs-FR) / Nick North (FR)
CB: Terry Hawthorne (JR) / Miami Thomas (SR) / Eaton Spence (FR)
FS: Trulon Henry (SR) / Steve Hull (SO) / Ben Mathis (SO-walkon)
SS: Supo Sanni (JR) / Patrick Nixon-Youman (JR) / Dondi Kirby (FR)
CB: Tavon Wilson (SR) / Justin Green (JR) / Jack Ramsey (JR)

K: Derek Dimke (SR) / Nick Immekus (rs-FR) / Patrick Dunn (rs-FR)
P: Justin DuVernois (FR) / Brad Janitz (rs-FR) / Matt Eller (SR)

Things I think about this:

>> I think I can’t put Corey Lewis as our starter at right tackle. I had him there last spring before he injured his knee. I had him there this January before he re-injured his knee. I think I’m to the point where I’m realizing that he might not be 100% until a year from now, and either Michael Heitz or Simon Cvijanovic (both redshirt freshmen) will be our starting strongside (right) tackle. After watching them both this spring, I think it will be Heitz.

>> I think there’s a lot of italics on this defense. Meaning that this spring, we went two deep at most defensive positions (with walk-ons filling out most of the third string). Meaning we’re not really deep.

Enter the freshmen. I think many of them will get a chance to play right away, especially whichever defensive back/outside linebacker gets slotted at our hybrid Sam Linebacker position. I went back and re-watched some high school tape, and my guess is that the third guy at SLB will be Nick North.

>> I think the vast majority of catches will be made by 2 seniors and 4 sophomores. AJ Jenkins will be the go-to guy, and I think Fred Sykes might be ready for a Jarred Fayson-like “senior who catches a lot more passes than we thought he would” season. Beyond that, it’s all sophomores: Ryan Lankford, Darius Millines, Spencer Harris, and TE Evan Wilson. Of that group, I think Harris impressed me the most this spring. He can go up and get it.

The bad news: they’re sophomores, so they’re still going to make lots of mental mistakes. The good news: The 2013 passing attack looks very “these guys look like they’ve been playing together for 8 years”-ish.

>> I think punter is wide open, but I’m giving it to Justin DuVernois right now, sight-unseen. Simply based on the fact that they gave him a scholarship. It could very well be Brad Janitz or even converted kicker Matt Eller – they’ll both get a shot in Rantoul. But without getting a chance to see Janitz and Eller kick very much this spring, I’m defaulting to the scholarship punter for now.

>> I think the walk-ons with the best chance to play are Eddie Viliunas (probably our starting “blocking tight end”), Wisdom Onyegbule (I think he’ll be the back-up to Craig Wilson at the shade DT position), and Ben Mathis (walk-on safety who made too many plays in too many scrimmages to leave off of special teams or the occasional series on the field).

>> I think I have no idea who the 6th offensive lineman will be. Three years ago, Eric Block rotated in as a junior and then started for his senior year. Two years ago, Randall Hunt rotated in as a junior and then started his senior year. Last year, Jack Cornell rotated in as a junior and will now start for his senior year. Um, Tyler Sands, you’re up.

>> I think our 2012 defense could be really good. If we can find some freshman depth at defensive tackle and Ashante Williams is a fit at SLB, possibly very, very good. We’ll lose Tavon Wilson, but Justin Green will start with Terry Hawthorne as seniors, so we should be solid there. We’ll lose Ian Thomas, but Jonathan Brown can slide over to the Mike and I think Houston Bates will be ready at Will by that point. We’ll lose Trulon Henry, but Steve Hull and PNY can pick up the slack. That defense will have several seniors with tons of experience (Buchanan, Mercilus, Hawthorne, Green, Sanni, Williams, etc).

The really bad news: It means our defense this fall might be defined as “a year away”.

Thank goodness for 8 home games.

That’s right,  THREE deep.  I don’t spend hours and hours thinking about the backups to the backup mike linebacker for nothing.  I’m going with my guesses from yesterday’s post – Leshoure and Martez go pro, Liuget stays.  If that’s the case, here’s a first look at our depth chart for next year:

QB: Nathan Scheelhaase (SO) / Chandler Whitmer (FR) / Miles Osei (SO)
RB: Jason Ford (SR) / Troy Pollard (SR) / Bud Golden (SO)
FB: Jay Prosch (SO) / Zach Becker (SR)
TE: Evan Wilson (SO) / Eddie Viliunas (JR) / Justin Lattimore (SO)
Weak OT: Jeff Allen (SR) / Craig Wilson (SR) / Simon Cvijanovic (rs-FR)
Weak OG: Hugh Thornton (JR) / Tyler Sands (JR) / Chris Boles (FR)
Center: Graham Pocic (JR) / Jake Feldmeyer (SO) / Alex Hill (rs-FR)
Strong OG: Jack Cornell (SR) / Andrew Carter (SO) / Shawn Afryl (rs-FR)
Strong OT: Corey Lewis (JR) / Michael Heitz (rs-FR) / Nate Swanson (SO-Walkon)
WR1: AJ Jenkins (SR) / Ryan Lankford (SO) / Anthony Williams (rs-FR)
WR2: Fred Sykes (SR) / Spencer Harris (SO) / Josh Ferguson (FR)
WR3: Steve Hull (SO) / Darius Millines (SO) / Jack Ramsey (JR)

That’s right – I’m moving STEVEHULL back to wide receiver. More on that later. On to the defense.

Bandit: Michael Buchanan (JR) / Justin Staples (JR) / Nate Palmer (JR)
DT: Corey Liuget (SR) / Glenn Foster (JR) / Austin Teitsma (rs-FR)
DT: Akeem Spence (SO) / Daryle Ballew (SR) / Jake Howe (rs-FR)
DE: Whitney Mercilus (JR) / Tim Kynard (SO) / DJ Woods (rs-FR)
WLB: Jonathan Brown (SO) / Houston Bates (rs-FR) / Henry Dickinson (FR)
MLB: Ian Thomas (SR) / Brandon Denmark (SO) / Ralph Cooper (FR)
SLB: Trulon Henry (SR) / Ashante Williams (JR) / Earnest Thomas (rs-FR)
CB: Terry Hawthorne (JR) / Patrick Nixon-Youman (JR) / JT Thornton (FR)
FS: Supo Sanni (JR) / Joelil Thrash (JR) / Ean Days (rs-FR)
SS: Tavon Wilson (SR) / Fritz Rock (rs-FR) / Zeph Grimes (FR)
CB: Justin Green (JR) / Miami Thomas (SR) / Tisunge Mkwezalamba (JR-walkon)

K: Derek Dimke (SR) / Matt Eller (SR) / Nick Immekus (rs-FR)
P: Justin DuVernois (FR) / Brad Janitz (rs-FR) / Patrick Dunn (rs-FR)

Notes:

=> Yes, Hull back to offense.  Even with the general thin-ness of the secondary.  Why? Because of my Rantoul mancrush back in August.  Hull and Scheelhaase seemed to have a chemistry, and Hull looked really, really smooth in and out of his cuts.  If the passing game is going to take a step forward next year, we need to replace Jarred Fayson with a new #2 guy.  I think that guy is Steve Hull.

=> Yes, I think Trulon Henry moves forward into Nate Bussey’s Sam Linebacker position.  Anyone who watched the Fresno game saw that Trulon, while solid all season at safety, doesn’t have the speed to stay with a wideout.  So move him forward where you can hide his lack of speed.  And emphasize his tackling and QB reading.

=> Pocic, Allen, and Thornton will anchor what should be a very solid offensive line next year.  The return of Corey Lewis from his ACL injury will give the line a big boost, and Jack Cornell in his 5th year will make a more than adequate 5th man.  Depth will be the key.  You’re move, Tyler Sands and Andrew Carter.

=> I wasn’t quite sure what to do with Brandon Denmark.  He looked pretty good at Bandit in mop-up situations.  But then there was a play in the Indiana game where I had this inner dialogue: “Wow, nice play, Martez.  Run to the whole, shed the block, make the tackl… wait, did Martez switch to #8? Who else is… hold on – is Brandon Denmark playing middle linebacker?”

Because I want to see more of that next year, I put Denmark at MLB instead of Bandit.  While he’s not the athletic freak that Martez is, he carries a similar body type.  I’d love to see Ron West mold him into some kind of hybrid hybrid.  The plays where Martez was rushing from the edge this past season?  If Tez goes, I want to see Denmark running those plays next year.

=> Redshirt freshman breakout potential for 2011 a la Akeem Spence this year?  I’m going with Houston Bates.  From what I’ve seen of him, he’s similar to say a Justin Staples.  Will he get big enough to play bandit?  Or will he stick at linebacker?  Not sure, but I think the kid’s a player.  He was probably the toughest redshirt decision (he was one of 8 freshmen that traveled to St. Louis for the Missouri game – he and Chandler Whitmer were the two players that held on to their redshirts), and if Martez goes pro, he’s the most likely to fill a position of need.

=> Where are we thin?  Linebacker if Martez goes pro (and even if he doesn’t, 2012 linebackers are currently what? Jonathan Brown/Houston Bates/Ashante Williams?).  D-line we will need someone to step up behind Mercilus (can Palmer or Staples switch from bandit to rush end?) and could use contribution at defensive tackle from one of the currently redshirting freshmen (Teitsma or Howe).  Wide receiver needs a strong #2 guy, and at safety we’ll probably need Rock or Days to step up in a backup role.

But most of all, we’re thin at corner.  The two starters will be back for 2 more years, so that’s good, but behind them there’s really only one true cornerback on the roster (Miami Thomas, he of 4 surgeries).  PNY is more of a nickel safety, Joelil Thrash was moved to safety, and Bellamy and Gully graduate.  In other words, hey JT Thornton.  Stick with your Illini verbal commitment, please.  There’s a good chance you’re on the field next fall.

=> The hardest player to replace not named Leshoure?  Anthony Santella.  The options are his backup from this year (freshman walk-on Brad Janitz), the kid from Florida we offered a scholarship to (Justin DuVernois), and some dude named Patrick Dunn who I’ve never heard of before but I needed 3 guys at every position on my Three-Deep and thankfully another punter was listed on the official roster.

OK, now that we have that cleared up, who wants to talk offensive guard recruiting needs for the 2012 and 2013 classes??

Had I made a depth chart in March (around the time we began to understand what type of defense Koenning would run), it might have looked something like this.  (Injured/suspended/released players are in bold)

DE: Clay Nurse – Whitney Mercilus
DT: Josh Brent – Akeem Spence
DT: Corey Liuget – Lendell Buckner
Bandit: Michael Buchanan – Nate Palmer
SLB: Nate Bussey – Ashante Williams
MLB: Martez Wilson – Evan Frierson
WLB: Ian Thomas – Aaron Gress
CB: Terry Hawthorne – PNY
CB: Tavon Wilson – Miami Thomas
S: Walt Aikens - Supo Sanni
S: Garrett Edwards – Trulon Henry

OK, so the linebacking corps remains intact.  But we’ve lost half the two-deep in the secondary and half the two-deep on the defensive line.  Can any team – let along a young team with a new coordinator – go through personnel changes like that and still be OK?  There has to be a breaking point, right?

Thankfully, the next three weeks bring us SIU, NIU, and a bye week.  Hopefully, by the time the State University Challenge gets here (OSU-PSU-MSU), we’ll have Hawthorne, Palmer, and maybe Buchanan back out on the field. But until then, we’re really thin in the secondary and Nicole Richie-thin on the defensive line.

So what will the D-line rotation look like this Saturday?  Zook announced that Clay Nurse would slide over to bandit, with Whitney the Mercilus starting at rush end.  I’m not sure if I like that – can Nurse really drop into coverage like Buchanan can? – but it’s probably our best option.  The other option would be to start Justin Staples at bandit (he practiced at rush end most of camp), but apparently the coaches think getting Mercilus on the field is more important than getting Staples on the field.

Backups at each position would probably be Staples over at rush end and true freshman Brandon Denmark at bandit.  Denmark did practice at Bandit all throughout camp, albeit third string behind Buchanan and Palmer, so he has the most experience at the position.  Is a true freshman ready for 20+ snaps on the defensive line in his second game?  I think we’re gonna find out on Saturday.  Denmark burned his redshirt on the opening kickoff against Missouri – might as well find out what the kid can do.

Here’s how I think the defensive rotation plays out on Saturday night.

Defensive Tackle
Corey Liuget and Akeem Spence start and play the most snaps
Glenn Foster is first off the bench
Daryle Ballew gets 10 or so snaps

Defensive End/Bandit
Clay Nurse and Whitney Mercilus start and play the most snaps.
Justin Staples backs up both positions, getting a fair amount of snaps at rush end.
Brandon Denmark gets a decent number of snaps at bandit.

Linebackers
Same as it ever was – Nate Bussey, Martez Wilson, & Ian Thomas start and play the majority of the snaps.
Aaron Gress is first off the bench.
Ashante Williams gets a few snaps at SLB.

Cornerbacks
Justin Green and Travon Bellamy start and play the majority of the snaps.
Patrick Nixon-Youman is first off the bench and probably gets more snaps than the Missouri game.
Jack Ramsey is probably the same – many more snaps than he saw against Missouri.

Safeties
Trulon Henry starts at free safety and Tavon Wilson at strong safety.
Steve Hull gets a ton of snaps at free safety. Possibly more than Trulon.
Joelil Thrash gets 10-15 snaps backing up Wilson.

One more thing.  This just hit me now, and I want to bury it here so I can quote myself next year and say something like “as I told you last September…”

If Steve Hull can produce at safety – a bigger “if” might be whether he stays at safety – I think you might see Trulon Henry move to the Nate Bussey Sam Linebacker/3rd Safety role next fall. Mercilus-Spence-Liuget-Buchanan, Thomas-M. Wilson-Henry, Green-Hull-T. Wilson-Hawthorne.  9 starters return, everyone has experience.

*takes deep breath, concentrates on beating SIU first*

QB: Nathan Scheelhaase / Chandler Whitmer
RB: Mikel Leshoure / Jason Ford / Troy Pollard
FB: Chris Willett / Jay Prosch
TE: Evan Wilson / Justin Lattimore OR Eddie Viliunas
WR1: AJ Jenkins / Chris James
WR2: Jarred Fayson / Darius Millines
WR3: Eddie McGee / Fred Sykes
Weakside Tackle: Jeff Allen / Michael Heitz
Weakside Guard: Hugh Thornton / Anterio Jackson
Center: Graham Pocic / Tyler Sands
Strongside Guard: Randall Hunt / Jack Cornell
Strongside Tackle: Ryan Palmer / Craig Wilson

DE: Clay Nurse / Whitney Mercilus
DT: Corey Liuget / Glenn Foster
DT: Akeem Spence / Daryle Ballew
Bandit: Michael Buchanan / Nate Palmer
SLB: Nate Bussey / Ashante Williams OR Earnest Thomas
MLB: Martez Wilson / Evan Frierson
WLB: Ian Thomas / Aaron Gress
CB: Justin Green / Miami Thomas
CB: Travon Bellamy / Patrick Nixon-Youman
FS: Tavon Wilson / Joelil Thrash
SS: Trulon Henry / Fritz Rock
K: Derek Dimke / Matt Eller
P: Anthony Santella / Brad Janitz

+ Taking a wild guess that Craig Wilson will be listed as Ryan Palmer’s backup instead of Jeff Allen’s backup. If either Allen or Palmer goes down with an injury (Dear God Please No), I think Wilson is the backup. It was a camp battle between Michael Heitz, Simon Cvijanovic, and Nate Swanson for the fourth tackle spot. I’m guessing that Heitz gets the nod. And that he’s listed behind Allen.

+ I listed different backups at each OL position, but I really think it will go like this: Jack Cornell is the replacement at either guard (I think they’re more comfortable with him at strongside guard, so if he replaces Hunt, Cornell is strongside; if he replaces Thornton, Hunt goes to Thornton’s spot on the weak side and Cornell is strongside).  If either tackle comes out for a breather, it’s Craig Wilson.  And if Pocic comes out, it’s Tyler Sands (or possibly Jake Feldmeyer).

+ With the WR rotation upside down because of all the position switching, here’s my new catches chart.  The top 7, in order of receptions:

AJ Jenkins
Jarred Fayson
Eddie McGee
Darius Millines
Fred Sykes
Chris James
Ryan Lankford

+ I’m very worried about twin tight end sets with Zach Becker injured and London Davis gone. That was probably your two-deep at blocking tight end, while Wilson/Lattimore was probably your two deep at receiving tight end. They would mix and match them all (including the fullbacks), so it’s not like there’s no one to play that specific position, but I’m worried that when we go to the twin TE set, we’re heavy on the catching and light on the blocking. Walkon QB turned TE Eddie Viliunas might have found a role here. Or maybe Russell Ellington (once he returns from injury).

+ I really need to find a spot for Justin Staples.  I saw him working out at both rush end and Bandit in Rantoul.  Whitney Mercilus is probably the true backup for Clay Nurse, and Nate Palmer is probably the true backup for Michael Buchanan, but Staples might get on the field at both positions.  He still needs to add size and strength, but I think he can be a nice defensive freak for us in a few years.

+ As I said in the mini-podcast, I have no clue what we’ll do in the secondary. Justin Green starts at corner after only a week and a half playing defense? Travon Bellamy is the other corner, or is Patrick Nixon-Youman ready? How soon can STEVEHULL make an impact at safety? If the answer to that is “soon”, does Tavon Wilson go back to corner? Last question: we’ve heard for a long time that Joelil Thrash is a natural corner that we’re trying to shoehorn in at safety. So… maybe… now… switch him back?

+ Some freshman surprises I could see: Darius Millines getting the second most receptions against Mizzou. Evan Wilson getting the most receptions against Mizzou. Brandon Denmark pulling off the redshirt and finding his way on the field at Bandit. Earnest Thomas pushing Ashante Williams for playing time at backup Sam. And Fritz Rock playing sooner rather than later.

+ One last thing: Totally forgot to hand out my two Camp Rantoul awards. I know how devastated you all must feel over this – all I can offer is my deepest apology. And the award history for the 13th time:

Spring 2009 – Spring Ball Crush: Mikel LeShoure; Eye Opening Player: Jerry Brown (*snif*)
Camp Rantoul 2009 – Camp Crush: Juice Williams (*sigh*); Eye Opening Player: Joelil Thrash
Spring 2010 – Spring Ball Crush: Nathan Scheelhaase; Eye Opening Player: Justin Staples

The envelope please…

Camp Rantoul 2010 – Camp Crush: Corey Liuget; Eye Opening Player: Evan Wilson

The leaner, meaner Corey Liuget was an easy pick for Camp Crush. Eye Opening Player was a little harder. The first two days, STEVEHULL jumped out to a huge lead. He looked great in the 7 on 7 drills. But the moment that Evan Wilson caught two redzone balls in the Rantoul Scrimmage (one for a touchdown with the first string, one for first-and-goal-at-the-two with the second string on the very next play), Hull was out and Wilson was in. Sorry, STEVEHULL. We’ll always have Camp Rantoul Practice #5.

QB: Scheelhaase/Charest/Whitmer
RB: LeShoure/Ford/Pollard
FB: Becker/Fuller
TE: Davis/Lattimore/Becker
WR1: Fayson/Ramsey/Sykes
WR2: Jenkins/McGee/Hull
LT: Allen/C. Wilson
LG: Thornton/Feldmeyer
C: Pocic/Sands
RG: Hunt/Cornell
RT: Lewis/Palmer

DE: Nurse/Mercilus
DT: Liuget/Ballew
DT: Spence/Foster
Bandit: Buchanan/Staples
SLB: Bussey/Gress
MLB: M. Wilson/Frierson
WLB: I. Thomas/Ellington
CB: Hawthorne/Nixon
CB: T. Wilson/M. Thomas
FS: Aikens/Sanni
SS: Thrash/Bellamy
Nickel: A. Williams/Henry
K: Dimke/Eller
P: Santella/The Ghost of Forry Wells

Thoughts:

+ I’m really guessing on the safeties. I saw Bellamy and Sanni with the first string at practice, but I can’t remember strong/free. It appeared that all of the safeties, including Thrash, Aikens, and Henry were being worked at both safety positions. My guess is that Aikens and Thrash eventually win the jobs, but I wouldn’t be surprised at any of the 5.

OK, that’s not true. You know how when you fill out a tournament bracket you take Illinois one round further than you know you should because you convince yourself that our team advancing further than you picked them to go would somehow make you a bad fan? Well, that’s kinda like me picking Aikens and Thrash. I want Aikens and Thrash because of Walt’s athleticism and Joelil’s instincts in Rantoul. But that might be wishful thinking. The senior (Bellamy) and the junior (Sanni) probably have the inside track.

+ I somewhat did the same thing by placing Pocic in front of Sands at center. I really liked Pocic the Run Blocker in the Northwestern, Cincy, and Fresno games, and I’d love to see more of it at center. I think his ceiling is higher than Sands, and I’d love to see a run to the left with Allen, Thornton, and Pocic blocking (and Hunt pulling). I think that’s our best run-blocking combination, and if that is going to be our go-to on offense next fall, well, give me Pocic.

+ Do we have any other punters on the roster?  Let’s see: Yelton graduated, Bosch left the team last year… yep, looks like it’s Santella or open campus try-out.  Stay healthy, Anthony.

+ In the absence of Josh Brent, I wasn’t sure what to do at the defensive tackle opposite Liuget.  Spence looked the best in a few DT drills I watched, so he gets the nod for now.  Glenn Foster might get the job, but I’m not sure he has the bulk yet after moving inside.  Takeaway: Study hard, Josh.

+ I saw somewhere (heard somewhere?) that they were looking to switch the Sam/Will alignment of Ian Thomas and Nate Bussey.  Move Bussey over to strong, move Thomas to weak.  Not sure if that’s what is happening, but I would like to see it.  In fact, there’s all kinds of scenarios I’d like to see with those three linebackers.  Overload strong side so that Ian Thomas is more or less a middle linebacker; line Thomas up weakside and bring in Ashante Williams to line up over the TE; etc.  Creativity – I want creativity.

+ Lots of chatter that Nathan Scheelhaase has pushed into the lead in the QB race.  I put him first, but I think it’s still the second inning.  With each new install they make each practice, there’s plenty of opportunity for Jacob (and Chandler) to show that they deserve a shot.  Whitmer’s arm and throwing motion are tantalizing (especially after watching Nathan lift his leg and watching, well, The Hitch), but apparently Chandler is still struggling in live drills.  If I had to pick today… Whitmer redshirts, Scheelhaase starts against Mizzou, but Charest plays a few series as well.  Long way to go.

+ Spring practice crushes: besides my obvious leftover crushes from last summer (LeShoure, Hawthorne, Thrash), I’ll put Hugh Thornton, Justin Staples, and AJ Jenkins on the list.  Thornton looks like he’s all Big Ten in a few years, Staples looks much bigger and much stronger, and Paul Petrino might be the best thing to ever happen to AJ Jenkins.  I’m looking for all three to make a big leap.

+ Spring practice fears: Randall Hunt on the right side, DT depth without Brent, pass protection from the O-line, and every safety on the team.

+ Admit it – every time you read a practice report saying “Terry Hawthorne intercepted passes on two consecutive plays”, you get a little more than excited.  I do too.  And I know what you’re thinking: “Maybe seven interceptions this fall.  Hell, let’s go crazy – EIGHT interceptions! That might rank us as high as 87th in the country!!”  Dare to dream.  NINE.

+ Dimke vs. Eller is a good problem to have.  I hope they push each other right up until the day before Missouri.

One more thing:  I heart you, Vic Koenning.

How did I do?  On offense, I was 23 for 25 – Tyler Sands edged out Ryan Sedlacek for the backup center spot, and Fred Sykes is listed as AJ Jenkins’ backup (Terry Hawthorne is “giving cornerback a try”).  Why 25?  We list 13 “starting” positions due to the multiple wide receiver sets we use.  Why isn’t it an even number?  We don’t have a backup fullback.  That’s OK though – Greg Fuller is very obviously superhuman and will not get injured.

On defense I missed a couple starters. Nate Bussey edged out Russell Ellington for the starting spot at WILL linebacker, at least for now.  And senior Sirod Williams is listed as the starter over sophomore Corey Liuget at defensive tackle.  Bussey might very well end up taking all of the snaps at outside linebacker, but I can’t see Sirod getting more snaps than Liuget. I think Corey is still being Zookmotivated.

Overall, if I had turned this in as a test, I would have received 43 out of 47.  One point deducted for missing Sykes, one for Sands, one point each for switching DT and WLB.  A-minus, baby!  And yes, it matters to me. I’ve already patted myself on the back twice for seeing something in Joelil Thrash at Camp Rantoul.  And I somewhat want to mock Herb Gould for saying that Supo Sanni is “a lock for a starting job” and Bob Asmussen for saying that Ashante Williams is the 25th most important Illini, but I won’t.  I’m bigger than that.

Other notables from the depth chart:

~ Running back depth chart is as expected.  Dufrene OR Ford OR LeShoure OR Pollard.  The only thing that’s missing from the list is Justin Green.  But he won’t be missing from the field on Saturday. (If you’re on the staff at Missouri and reading this, I’m totally joking.  We don’t have a secret weapon at tailback who won the Kentucky 100-meter state title the last two years.  No sir – nothing at all.  Just Dufrene, Ford, LeShoure, and Pollard.  That’s it.)

I saw this morning that Dufrene is  “questionable” for Saturday’s game with his sprained ankle.  When Zook says “He was running in the whirlpool (Sunday). That’s a start“, I get a very distinct feeling that we might see Daniel in jeans on the sideline.  That hurts, but opens even more of an opportunity for My Man Mikel.

~ They made a point to add offensive-guard-for-six-days Anterio Jackson to the depth chart as the third option at right guard.  I’m not sure if I’m supposed to read anything into that or not – a week ago today he was a defensive tackle.  But if any of you have any “Anterio Jackson is the new Xavier Fulton” theories, hit me up.  I like the taste of that Koolaid.

~ Other third-stringers listed: Jacob Charest at QB, Chris James at WR, London Davis at TE (interesting – I thought Zach Becker would be listed here), Glen Foster at DE, Justin Staples at SLB, Nate Palmer at MLB, Dustin Jefferson at WLB, and Patrick Nixon-Youman at CB.

~ Despite going three-deep at all three linebacker positions, my boy Eric Watts was not listed.  Too bad – looks like it’s a Loushirt for him.  I’ll have to wait a few years for The Next Great Illini Linebacker to emerge (not really) (well, kinda).

~ Michael Buchanan was not listed in the two-deep, but I still think he loses his redshirt.  We’ll need a situational pass rusher, and 28-38 is just the guy to do it.  28-38?  That’s my new nickname for Buchanan.  Waist and inseam.

DE
Doug Pilcher (SR)
Whitney Mercilus (FR)
Michael Buchanan (FR)

DT
Corey Liuget (SO)
Rahkeem Smith (SR)

DT
Josh Brent (JR)
Sirod Williams (SR)

DE
Clay Nurse (JR)
Antonio James (SR)

SLB
Ian Thomas (SO)
Aaron Gress (JR)

MLB
Martez Wilson (JR)
Evan Frierson (FR)

WLB
Russell Ellington (SO)
Nate Bussey (JR)
Eric Watts (FR)

CB
Tavon Wilson (SO)
Travon Bellamy (JR)

CB
Dere Hicks (SR)
Joelil Thrash (FR)

SS
Garrett Edwards (JR)
Bo Flowers (JR)

FS
Donsay Hardeman (SR)
Supo Sanni (SO)

Nickel
Travon Bellamy (JR)

+ I added a third player at DE and WLB because by November 1, I think Michael Buchanan and Eric Watts might find themselves in the actual two-deep.  Buchanan because of Jerry Brown’s departure, Watts because of my mancrush.  Granted, both are currently small for their positions, so Loushirts would be helpful for both, but I really do think they find their way onto the field.

+ Joelil Thrash might have shed his redshirt even before the Miami Thomas injury.  I was really impressed at Camp Rantoul.  So with Miami gone and Patrick Nixon-Youman seemingly not 100% after the injury, I think Thrash is most definitely our 4th corner.  And with our third corner (Bellamy) also being the nickel, it stands to reason that Thrash will get a fair amount of time on the field this fall.

+ I think we’ll see a fair amount of dime defense this season.  Partly to cover spread offenses, partly for down-and-distance situations, and partly to give offenses a different look than the same, predictable base defense.  A guess at the dime would be Nurse-Liuget-Pilcher on the line, Thomas and Tez at linebacker, and Wilson-Bellamy-Hicks, Sanni-Edwards-Hardeman in the defensive backfield.

+ I switched Antonio James and Clay Nurse from what I had back in May, but that’s only because I liked Nurse more than James in Rantoul.  I think the plan remains the same: James at DE on rushing downs, Nurse at DE on passing downs.

+ A peek at next year’s defense: Nurse-Brent-Liuget-Buchanan, Thomas-Tez-Ellington, Bellamy-Wilson-Edwards-Sanni.  You know, if Buchanan can progress nicely and Sanni can step it up, that has a chance to be a really solid defense.  A strength-of-the-team defense, led by the top DT tandem in the country.

I just wanted to say “2010 top DT tandem in the country” again. Fun.