Tyler Brown’s three pointer with a one second left falls for Illinois State. Julian Welch makes both free throws with 14 seconds left to give Minnesota a two possesion lead.  Meyers Leonard doesn’t block Drew Crawford’s shot and Northwestern wins at the buzzer.  Just those three things – three times the ball is hanging on the air and if it goes in we lose – and we’d be 12-6 (2-3) and headed for another dance with the bubble.

Instead, Jerry Palm says we’re a 2 seed.  Um, what?

And I didn’t even mention the fact that we trailed St. Bonaventure 39-30 with 5:00 left.  Or that we were tied with Cornell with 1:30 remaining (at home).  Or that we were tied with Nebraska with 1:00 remaining (at home).  If we just go 50/50 in our close games, we’re 12-6 or maybe even 11-7.  Instead, we’re 15-3, ranked, and, according to some bracketologists, on our way to a two seed.

What?

In 2009/10, I documented all of our close losses.  I believe I played the opposite angle – 4 shots go in and we’re headed for a 3 seed and not the bubble.  So I fully realize that this very thin line is what separates the great from the good.  Win the close ones, gain confidence, and it builds upon itself.  Lose the close ones, and you end up playing at Stony Brook in the first round of the NIT because the circus is in town.

So will this build upon itself?  Well, the schedule certainly sets up that way.  With our next 5 games (at Penn State, Wisconsin, at Minnesota, Michigan State, Northwestern), another 4-1 stretch is possible.  I, for one, would very much enjoy going into our February 9th game at Indiana still sitting in first place in the Big Ten at 8-2.  But I can also see us going into that game 5-5 because our late-game heroics dried up and we started to tailspin.  This is my conundrum.  We’re either much better than I even realize or the luckiest team in NCAA basketball.

Which means the two sides of my personal Jekyll/Hyde Illini personality appears.  The pessimistic Illini fan in me says we all know what’s happening tonight - Penn State wins, probably at the buzzer, likely by some walkon’s banked-in three pointer.  The Kool-Aid Illini fanatic in me says we have a better chance than any other B1G team at the Big Ten title and a 1-seed.  WHAT?  Yeah, a 1-seed.

OK – we’re not getting a 1-seed.  That’s ridiculous.  Yes, the Big Ten is strong, so the Big Ten champ probably gets a 1-seed.  But the Big Ten is strong – no chance we emerge unscathed.  10-8 in conference is much more likely than 15-3.

Which puts me in a weird place.  I have no idea how to feel about the game tonight.  And I honestly have no idea where this season will end up. At this point last year, especially after the loss at Indiana, we pretty much knew where the season was headed.  Same in 2009/10 – we knew by mid-to-late January that we were headed for a bubbly mess.

This year?  No clue.  We might spiral down to the bubble.  We might surge to a 2-seed.  We might go 8-10 in the Big Ten and still make the tourney.  We might win the Big Ten.

OK, we’re not winning the Big Ten.  That’s ridiculous.  Or is it?  Yes, ridiculous.  Or maybe not.

Find winners.

Besides “get guys who can recruit”, it appears to me that Tim Beckman targeted assistant coaches from winning programs.  Keith Gilmore we know, and Luke Butkus came from the NFL, but the other 7 assistants have a common thread: a winning history.

Golesh, Ward, and Clinkscale came over with Beckman from Toledo, where Beckman took a downtrodden program from 5-7 to 8-5 to 9-4.

Chris Beatty coached 3 bowl games at West Virginia before moving to Vanderbilt for a year with James Franklin (a coach who won’t be at Vandy very long after leading them to a bowl in his first season).

Billy Gonzales followed Urban Meyer from Bowling Green to Utah to Florida before parting ways with Meyer and heading to LSU.  I hear they win a few games here and there.

And new defensive coordinator Tim Banks followed Butch Jones from his successful stint at CMU to his 10-win season this year at Cincinnati.

Find winners.  Find coaches who have been around winning programs, and use that knowledge to build a tradition of winning in Champaign.

Compare that to the Ron Zook coaching hires like Mike Woodford (who had been out of football) or Jim Pry (who came from Akron), and Kurt Beathard (who came from Eastern Kentucky), and you understand my (and Charlie Sheen’s) point.  It appears that Tim Beckman is serious about winning. He’s hired recruiters who come from programs on the upswing.

But can they coach?

Keith Gilmore (Defensive Line)

I don’t really need to tell you anything about Keith Gilmore.  Corey Liuget.  Whitney Mercilus.  Ball-on-a-Stick. You know it all already.  Glad he’s back.

Tim Banks (Defensive Coordinator)

I’ll be honest – he’s probably the most underwhelming hire of the 9 assistants, partly because of his inexperience and mostly because he gets to be The Guy Who Replaced Vic Koenning.

Of all the positions, I was hoping this one would be the home run hire (in my opinion, that’s Gonzales).  Given the way Big Ten football works, you simply must have a competent defense.  So I was hoping for a big name to jump from a big program. (I know, right?  I’m an Illinois fan hoping for a “big name” to jump from a big program to Champaign.  I’ll never learn.)

But this doesn’t mean Tim Banks isn’t a solid hire.  After some quick research, it appears that Banks made the play calls and took the lead in game-planning at Cincinnati, so my concerns over him being a co-coordinator are alleviated.  I wanted someone with play-calling (specifically, blitz-calling) experience, and it looks like Banks has that on his resume. And after a bumpy 2010 season (Butch Jones’ first year at Cincy with a very young team), the Cincinnati defense had a very solid year in 2011.

Can he recruit?  We’ll see.  Can he magically put together a defense with only 15 or 16 contributors that lost 3 players to the NFL and finish 7th in the nation?  We’ll see.  Good luck, Guy Who Replaced Vic Koenning.

Mike Ward – Linebackers

Mike Ward and Tim Beckman have a long history.  Ward was the strength coach at Findlay in the mid-80′s when Beckman was a player.  Ward moved on to Bowling Green to become strength coach, and in 2000, some defensive coordinator named Tim Beckman picked him to be defensive line coach.

Beckman and Ward coached together at Bowling Green until 2005 when Beckman moved on to Ohio State. In 2007, when Beckman took the defensive coordinator job at Oklahoma State, Ward got the defensive coordinator job at Bowling Green.  And when Beckman got the head coaching job at Toledo two years later, who did he hire as his co-defensive coordinator? Mike Ward.  And when Beckman got the Illinois job, who did he bring with him? Alex Golesh. And Mike Ward.

So I guess you can call him his right hand man (kind of like Billy Gonzales and Urban Meyer, if you will – you know, before their fallout).  Many coaches like having a right hand man (think Vic Koenning & Ron West), and Ward appears to be that guy for Beckman.

I don’t think anything is official, but I believe Ward will be coaching linebackers. Lucky guy.  With Jonathan Brown returning, Houston Bates, Henry Dickinson, Ralph Cooper, and new commit TJ Neal all fighting for minutes, plus Ashante Williams, Earnest Thomas, Zeph Grimes, and early-enrollee TaJarvis Fuller fighting for playing time on the outside, Ward will have more pieces to play with than any other position coach on the staff.

Can he recruit?  Well, TJ Neal mentioned him specifically in one of the articles discussing his verbal, so that’s a good sign.  Can he coach?  We shall see.

Steven Clinkscale – Secondary

Unfair, but I’ll say it:  Clinkscale is the most likely candidate for Coach I Get Angry At Because The Defense Isn’t As Solid As 2011.  Totally unfair, but I can see it already.

First, he’s replacing a one-year assistant (Mike Gillhamer) who did a pretty outstanding job.  Gillhamer took 6 guys – Wilson, Hawthorne, Green, Hull, Sanni, and PNY – and molded our best secondary in a generation.  We finished 3rd nationally against the pass (behind only Alabama and South Carolina), and before you go giving credit for that stout defense to the Whitney the Mercilus and Michael Buchanan, go back and see how many of their sacks were coverage sacks.  We might never see another Illini defense finish 3rd nationally against the pass.

So now, our NFL assistant coach is gone, our coordinator is gone, the versatile player that made that secondary click is gone (Tavon Wilson), and it’s Clinkscale’s job to try to replicate what we just accomplished. Good luck, coach.

Ooh – I know how he could win me over quickly.  RECRUITING.  Bring me a 4-star offensive tackle from Youngstown, Ohio and we’ll be BFF’s, Stevie.

What?  Oh – Clinkscale’s history.  There’s not much to talk about.  He was an assistant coach at his Division II Alma Mater (Ashland University in Ohio) until 2007, and then after a one-year stint at Western Carolina, Beckman hired him as cornerbacks coach at Toledo.  So with only 3 years of FBS experience, he and Golesh share the title of Woefully Inexperienced Assistant Coach.  Like Golesh, I think he’s being brought along mostly for his recruiting.  Which is great.

But…

My signature – the little thing that shows up at the bottom of all posts – on a certain Illini message board that I happen to post on (don’t worry – you couldn’t find it if you tried) says the following:

But can they coach?

This is my signature out of convenience.  I used to put fun things there at the bottom of all my posts – I had President Hogan’s fantastic quote from before the Illinois/Northwestern Wrigley game for a long time…

“Red Grange played at Wrigley. Dick Butkus played at Wrigley. The sign outside may have been painted purple, but the echoes inside are orange and blue.”

…but for now, I’ve gone with “but can they coach?” Why? Because all I seem to talk about these days are the assistant coaches that Tim Beckman is hiring. And every time I discuss their recruiting acumen, I’m left to wonder one thing. Can they coach?

Here. Watch. I’ll discuss each coach, and when we’re done, like some call-and-response church service, I’ll simply look to you and let you say “but can he coach?”

Billy Gonzales, co-Offensive Coordinator

A home run hire, in my book.  I first became aware of Gonzales when he was Urban Meyer’s recruiting coordinator at Florida.  News of his departure for LSU hit my ears – someone pointed me to this article where he left by leaving a sticky note for Meyer – and then when Florida fans started to decry the fact that Urban Meyer picked Steve Addazio instead of Gonzales (here’s what EDSBS had to say, including their awesome panda gif)…

Gonzales was aggrieved due to not getting the OC job after the departure of Dan Mullen for Mississippi State, but who can argue with Urban’s logic given the success the team has had HNNNNNNNNNNGGGG—–

Our emotions regarding this matter can only be summed up thusly:

…I was then aware of Billy Gonzales, his recruiting skills, and the why-won’t-anyone-let-him-be-OC cloud hanging over his head. If Florida fans hated to see him go, I love him already.

So the fact that a top-20-in-college-football recruiter is now headed to Champaign to be our co-offensive coordinator, well, pinch me.  I first heard the rumor days after Beckman was hired when someone used flight tracker to determine that Beckman flew to Baton Rouge, and to be honest, I’ve been dying for it to be official since that very moment.  And when I’m waiting that long for something to happen, I build ridiculous expectations in my head.  Here they are:

• I think he’ll be a better recruiter than Mike Locksley.
• I think he’s more plugged-in in south Florida than Dan Disch was in northern Florida.
• I think when he leaves Champaign, he’ll be known as the best recruiting assistant coach we’ve ever had.

Don’t believe me?  He’s been our assistant coach for 5 hours, and this might happen:

Yesterday the drama continued as word spread that in addition to Morris Claiborne, Michael Brockers and Rueben Randle, who had long ago expressed interest in going pro, another Tiger, Kadron Boone, is considering leaving LSU. At 3:00, LSU held a press conference to announce that Claiborne and Brockers would be leaving early for the NFL. Shortly after, TigerSportsDigest.com reported that Randle has also decided to go pro. Shepard is still undecided, but it looks likely that he will also leave early for the NFL as he is disappointed in the amount of playing time he has received. The deadline for entering the draft is Sunday. Boone is rumored to be following Gonzales to Illinois, although that is not yet official.

Who’s Kadron Boone? Oh, only a 4-star receiver from Florida who would be the most talented player on the field when he’d be eligible at the beginning of the 2013 season (seriously, only Terry Hawthorne and Justin Green were ranked higher in recruiting rankings, and they’re both seniors next year). So yeah, I expect him to recruit like a boss. What’s that? Oh yeah, our call-and-response.

I expect him to recruit, but… (this is where you say “can he coach?”)

Chris Beatty, co-offensive coordinator

I think Gonzales will be calling the plays.  But we have another offensive coordinator (my guess, Gonzales coordinates the passing game and Beatty coordinates the running game).  Oh, and he’s also a fantastic recruiter.

Beatty was Percy Harvin’s high school coach in Virginia Beach (Harvin’s lead recruiter at Florida? BILLY GONZALES.)  He then moved to Hampton for one year, to Northern Illinois for one year, and then to West Virginia where he was recruiting coordinator for Bill Stewart.  Last year, James Franklin hired him to be wide receivers coach/recruiting coordinator at Vanderbilt, and after a year there, Beckman brought him here.

His connections in the Virginia Beach area brought multiple 4-star players to West Virginia and several players to Vandy (in their best recruiting class ever).  Now, he gets to use those connections to bring kids to Champaign.  I can’t wait.

What’s that?  How will he do coordinating an offense?  No idea.  He was a high school coach when Zook took over in Champaign.  So yeah, I guess you’re right – he can really recruit, but…

Alex Golesh, Tight Ends, Recruiting Coordinator

Golesh would follow Tim Beckman anywhere.

He was a “student assistant” at Ohio State while Beckman was the secondary coach. When Beckman got the defensive coordinator job at Oklahoma State, he added Golesh as a graduate assistant.  And when Beckman was named head coach at Toledo, he brought in Golesh as running backs coach (and eventually recruiting coordinator).

By the way – anyone seeing a theme here?  Gonzales was recruiting coordinator at Florida.  Beatty was recruiting coordinator at West Virginia and then Vandy.  Golesh was recruiting coordinator at Toledo.  And we’re not done.

I kind of compare this hire to Chip Long, our last tight ends coach.  Right down to the red hair.  Long was a graduate assistant for Paul Petrino, and when we needed a tight ends coach, Petrino hired Long.  Beckman did the same with Golesh at Toledo, and now he’s brought him along to Illinois as well.

So he’ll be the guy in charge of assembling our recruiting classes.  That’s all good and fine, but…

Luke Butkus, Offensive Line

My first reaction to Butkus as the OL coach was a negative one, mostly because I had no idea of his NFL experience.  His five years as and assistant OL coach – 3 with the Bears and 2 with the Seahawks – probably don’t make for the best resume for a BCS line coach job, but hey, his name is Butkus.  YOU tell him he’s not fully qualified.

That little quip I just made – the whole “he’s a Butkus – YOU tell him” bit?  That’s the reason he was hired, and that’s the reason I love the hire.  This University’s biggest selling point – over and above anything ever – is that this is the University of Dick Butkus.  Red Grange too, yes – the greatest college football player of all time played in Champaign.  But while he is alive, Dick Butkus is the main attraction.  The baddest man to ever play the game was an Illini.  His nephew will now enter Chicagoland high schools and recruit players using exactly that tactic.  He’s a Butkus – YOU tell him no.

Yes, it’s really strange for me that a player who played at Illinois after I graduated is now an assistant coach.  An assistant coach in charge of assembling an offensive line that loses Jeff Allen and Jack Cornell and struggled in the second half of the season to find a rhythm.  Young tackles… new offensive scheme… open position battles everywhere but center… good luck, Luke.

I think he’ll be able to recruit – his name will open many doors in this state.  But…

Tim Salem, Running Backs and Special Teams

But can he recruit?

I have to say – Tim Beckman is putting together this coaching staff nearly exactly as I would have done.  Go find the top recruiting assistants and offer them more money to come to Champaign.  With one caveat – find the best Special Teams coach you can, because we’ve had the worst Special Teams in the nation the last 5 years.  Seriously – no team in the country has been collectively worse.

Enter Tim Salem.  Illinois was 120th out of 120 teams last year in kickoff returns, averaging a hard-to-believe 15.71 yards per return.  Central Florida, where Tim Salem was the special teams coach?  3rd nationally, averaging 26.93 yards. Think about that.  That’s one first down the offense doesn’t have to gain on every single drive.  42 kickoff returns for UCF, meaning 42 drives with one less first down required.  11 less yards needed to get into field goal range.  11 yards closer to setting up the other team with poor field position even if you go three-and-out.

And if you think it was just a fluke, in 2010 UCF’s kickoff return teams were #1 nationally, averaging a stunning 27.78 yards per return.  2009?  Oh no – only 13th nationally.

Kickoff coverage?  UCF was 9th last year (Illinois was 82nd). Fluke? Nope.  In 2010 UCF was 3rd, and in 2009 UCF was 10th.

Let’s recap all of this.  Kickoff returns the last 3 years – Salem: 3rd, 1st, 13th.  Zook: 120th, 101st, 105th.

Kickoff coverage the last 3 years – Salem: 9th, 3rd, 10th.  Zook: 82nd, 84th, 90th.

What about punt returns?  Salem: 60th, 12th, 29th.  Zook: 118th, 117th, 114th.

I need a second.  I loved Ron Zook as a “great guy” and all, and the players loved him like a dad, but ARE YOU FREAKING KIDDING ME RON ZOOK?  Do you understand how many close games you lost simply because you spotted the other team more than a hundred yards of field position during the game?  Your best special teams unit in the last three years was the 2011 kickoff coverage team that finished as the 82nd best team out of 120?

Enter Tim Salem.  Enter our offense starting at the 31 instead of the 19.  Enter our opponents needing an extra first down on every single drive. Enter a special teams coordinator whose teams had 906 punt return yards the last 3 years.  Ron Zook’s punt returners? 180 total yards in three years.  I can’t tell you how much I’m looking forward to Tim Salem’s special teams.

But can he recruit?

Editor’s note: I had originally intended for this to be one giant mega post on all of the assistant coaches, but we’re already north of 1,700 words and we still don’t have a defensive coordinator named.  So once that person is named, look for part two.

I didn’t watch the Arizona game live.  There, I said it.

Yes, THAT game.  Here’s why.

Because of some scheduling conflict, the big Easter dinner/celebrate my mother-in-law’s birthday deal got moved to Saturday, March 26, 2005.  I remember praying for a Friday-Sunday Sweet 16 bracket, but when that didn’t happen, I knew what I had to do: I had to record the game and watch it on tape delay.  There was no way to miss the Easter/birthday thing, and there was no way I could escape to the basement for 2.5 hours of basketball.  This would be good.  I could skip the commercials and watch it quickly.  And besides, we’re going to destroy Arizona.

So I turned off my phone, avoided all media (I wouldn’t even turn on the radio driving home for fear of some radio DJ spilling the beans), and started watching the game around 11:30 that night.  Oh – I should note that my in-laws are not Illini fans.  They’re from Idaho.  They might or might not have even known the NCAA tournament was going on at the time.  So to execute this plan, their house was a perfect hideout.  They live in the middle of nowhere with no cell service – my brother-in-law seeing something on his phone was an impossibility as well.

Once we got down 15, I’ll admit to watching the game on fast forward.  My heart was pounding.  Like you, I was in total disbelief, but I had the advantage of speeding up that disgust.  I remember rubbing my face in an “I can’t believe this is happening” moment and then looking up and seeing we’re down 7.  I remember thinking that if I took it off fast forward, I might jinx our comeback (yes, while watching a game on tape at 12:45 in the morning).  So I kept watching on fast forward until we cut it to 3.  And then I watched from Deron’s 3 to the end while pacing.

When Arizona’s desperation heave missed and the game was over, I ran around my house looking for someone to high five.  We had a cat at the time, and I think I lifted the cat in the air in celebration.  I turned on my phone to find 7 voicemails and dozens of texts.  I had my own little “we’re going to the Final Four” celebration at 1:00 in the morning.

So I was prepared for tonight.

My son had an event at his school, and I had some extra work to do for a meeting tomorrow, so I stayed at work until 9:15 and then picked up my son.  I wanted to watch the Ohio State game live – you know, just in case – so I turned off my phone at 8:00 and avoided anything Illini internet.  I turned on my phone on my way to get him so I could let him know I was on my way and oops – a text pops up from a friend simply saying “here they come!” So now my heart was racing.  We must have been down, but we must be fighting back.  I noted the time of 9:13.

I got my son at his school and we headed home.  Left the radio off.  Talked about homework and his nose that might be broken from wrestling with his brother and the fact that he doesn’t have school on Monday.  When we got home, I gave him some instructions: go inside and make sure the TV is not on ESPN.  The last thing I wanted to do was make it this long only to walk in and see the score late in the game.  He came back out and gave me the coast is clear signal, and I headed in to watch the game “live”.  I had a mini-panic attack making sure the game was recording (I look at that little red light like people look at pregnancy tests – “Is it on? Is that red?  That looks orange – DOES THAT MEAN SOMETHING ELSE?”)  My son went to bed, my wife was asleep, the dog was asleep – I made it.  Now to watch the game “live”.

BOOM.  Brandon Paul.  That just happened.  I ran upstairs and woke up my son just because I had to tell someone.  Then I spent an hour looking over message boards and Twitter and watching for SportsCenter highlights.  And now it’s 12:56 and I’m nowhere close to sleep.  Some thoughts:

+ One of the posts I started but never published over the weekend was a post comparing the Ohio State football game in October to the Ohio State basketball game tonight.  I looked at the parallels between the two games – both of our teams were winning close games and surprising some opponents right up until the Ohio State game, and then reality hit.  For the football team it meant 6 straight losses.  What would it mean for the basketball team?

Now I’m really glad I didn’t post it.  In the same way the football loss was the beginning of a tailspin, this basketball win can be the beginning of a rally.  We have 9 days off now, so there’s plenty of time to get past the hangover.  The next three games – at Penn State, Wisconsin at home, at Minnesota – are all winnable.  So if we really want to make something of this season, the table is set.  If Michigan State loses at Michigan next week, we’ll take the court in Happy Valley tied for the Big Ten lead.  Win that and have a few other things go our way this weekend and next, and we could emerge the following week in sole possession of first place in the B1G.

*slams on brakes* Sorry, got a little carried away.

+ There’s really nothing I could say about Brandon Paul’s performance tonight.  No words would be able to describe it.  We’ll simply forever refer to this game as The Brandon Paul Game.  I refer to a lot of things like that – The Andy Kauffman Shot, The Jack Ingram Game At Wisconsin, etc. – and this is the next one.  In 23 years, when your kids are having kids, you’ll say The Brandon Paul Game to your brother-in-law and he’ll know what you’re talking about.

That sequence where he hit the shot with Craft’s hand an inch from his face and then the block on Sullinger at the other end – I can’t remember a sequence like that in a long time.  Frankie against Iowa with Dick Vitale going crazy?  That’s the last “what an INSANE sequence” I can remember.*

* please note that I exclude the Arizona game from these lists.  If allowed, every Illini reference, from best comeback to craziest steal to best block of a three pointer, would source back to the Arizona game.

An all-time ridiculous stat line for Paul tonight: 43 points, 8 boards, 4 blocks, 2 steals, 2 assists, and 7 turnovers.

+ Amazing how un-broken our offense looks when Paul scores 43 points.  The bench doesn’t score a single point, Maniscalco doesn’t play, DJ plays all 40 minutes with his iffy wrist, JoeBert plays the majority of his minutes at the 4, and we looked better than we have since the Gonzaga game.

We can’t expect to shoot 60% every game (Ohio State took 21 more shots than we did – and they lost by 5), and we can’t expect Paul to get to 23 points, let alone 43.  But if we can build on the confidence from this game – we were aggressive on the offensive end, and it paid off – then we could really put Humpty back together again.

+ I’m still reeling from how many times we fought back after Ohio State made a run.  Was it 4 times? 5?  It felt like 5 times where they’d push out to a 6-9 point lead, only to have us rattle off 7 straight points.  Amazing.

OK, I need to get some sleep. I’ll probably read this over in the morning and realize I jumped way too far ahead based on one game, and that the same issues that were there at Purdue will be there at Penn State. I guess I can worry about that next week. For tonight, what a game.

I’ve been doing that thing again where I type some stuff for a blog post, read through it a few hours later, realize that it’s not up to the standard I set for this site, and delete it.  Whenever I get to these points, and they’re usually precipitated by some strange belief in my head – yesterday was “it’s January 7th and you MUST start writing more about basketball” even though the basketball game had me so frustrated I could spit and football coaching staff news dominates my mind – I find that I can snap myself out of it if I just start typing.  With little orange headlines.

It’s Broken

Our offense.  It’s broken.  Sorry – I should be more specific.  The motion offense that Bruce Weber uses for the basketball team is broken.  It needs to be fixed.  I realize that you might be confused, given that the offense for the football team was broken and in need of repair as well.  But this subsection is for the basketball offense.

It’s broken.  Nothing works.  In our last 5 games at Assembly Hall, we were tied with Nebraska with 2 minutes to go (a team we should have destroyed), we went to double overtime with Minnesota (a team we should have destroyed), we beat Cornell by 4 (a team we should have destoryed), we led Coppin State by only 2 with 7:00 to play (a team we should have destroyed), and we beat St. Bonaventure 48-43 in a game where we trailed 39-30 with 5:30 to go.  Oh, and the Bonnies were a team we should have destroyed.

Why are all of these games close?  Because the offense is broken.  Yes, Maniscalco is injured, and DJ hurt his wrist – there’s certainly some excuses out there for why the offense looked so poor yesterday.  But this is the 5th consecutive game at Assembly Hall where our offense sputtered against an inferior opponent.  The last seven minutes against Coppin State and the second overtime against Minnesota are the only times I can remember thinking that the offense was clicking.  The rest of the time, if the ball isn’t in Joseph Bertrand’s hands, we’re in big trouble.

(Sorry to the 3 readers who have been in comas for the last 3 months.  Yes, that’s really what I typed.  Our offense is in huge trouble if the ball isn’t in Joseph Bertrand’s hands.  He’s our best scorer by a country mile.  Yes, really.  Oh, and Kim Jong-il died.)

If we don’t fix the offense, I’m pretty sure we’ll lose 6 of our next 8 games.  And if we lose 6 of our next 8 games, I’m pretty sure we miss the tournament.  And if we miss the tournament, I’m pretty sure Bruce Weber gets fired.  So, hey, Bruce: you might want to fix the offense.

Lost In Transition

As we enter the Beckman era, I’m curious how much rope Illini fans will give.  Whenever there’s a coaching change, I always automatically look forward to Year 3 as being the time that the new staff/schemes begin to make a surge.  Part of this is because of Ron Turner and Ron Zook, who both went from nothingness to a bowl game in Year 3.  Part of this is because other programs, from Barry Alvarez at Wisconsin to Kirk Ferentz at Iowa, usually see a big surge in the third or fourth season.  The systems are in place, the players are recruited for those systems, and patience pays off as the teams continue to climb.

This scenario is a bit different.  Tim Beckman is inheriting a team that has been to back-to-back bowls (albeit a 6-10 Big Ten record those two seasons).  He probably won’t need 3 to 4 years to get the program on track.

Or will he?  Zook’s recruiting fell off in 2010, and while that class fortunately contained many impact players, the 2011 and (so far) 2012 classes are ranked much lower than any other classes that Ron Zook put together.  So if there’s going to be a talent dip approaching, it probably hits somewhat next year and a lot in 2013.

So how much rope will Illini fans give Tim Beckman?  Next year is a transition year – brand new offense, brand new defense, playmakers gone on both sides of the ball, and an entirely new way to go about everything from training camp to team meals.  Look no further than Michigan in 2008 (or Minnesota and Indiana last year) to see that teams with new coaching staffs can sometimes look completely lost the first few years.

And the schedule gets tougher, too.  No more 8 home games, tough slate of non-conference games next year, Washington and Cincinnati in 2013 (with Nebraska and Michigan State added to the schedule), etc.  Beckman will have his hands full working through the last of the Guenther-regime schedules.

So here’s how I see it playing out:  Tim Beckman brings in a fantastic 2013 recruiting class.  Given a full year with his recruiting-heavy staff, he pulls in a legitimate top-25 class next year.  And the next year, while not as great, is still a very solid recruiting class.  But he goes 5-7 one year and 4-8 the other year, and impatient Illini fans start to wonder why we fired 6-6 Ron Zook for 4-8 Tim Beckman.  Will he get enough rope to get those great recruiting classes to their junior and senior years?  Do we have enough talent on the roster to bridge the gap between now and then?  We shall see.