Part two of our (our?) look at the roster coming out of spring ball, and our future needs at each position. Because if we’re going to go on this five game winning streak over Northwestern, you need to know the players that will participate in each of those beatdowns.

Purple sucks.

Defensive End

Even with the loss of soon-to-be first round pick Whitney the Mercilus, I still think we’ll be able to get to the quarterback this fall. I truly believe that Michael Buchanan will become the fifth player in Illini history to put up double digit sacks.  I’ll wait while you try to figure out the other four.  Yes, Simeon Rice and Whitney Mercilus – those are the easy ones.  Good one – you got Mike Poloskey in 1991.  Not everyone remembers he put up 15 sacks (just one less than Simeon in 1994 and Big Whit last year.  Nope, Will Davis isn’t the fourth – he only had 9.5.  No, not Fred Wakefield, either.  His best sack total was 9 in one season.  Give up?

Scott Davis.  10 sacks in 1987.

So here’s hoping Buchanan can be the tenth.  He had 7.5 sacks last year, and off the top of my head, I can think of three sacks for Mercilus where Buchanan was coming off the other edge 0.5 seconds after Mercilus arrived.  I really think 12 sacks is a reasonable goal.

On the other side, the starter will likely be fellow senior Justin Staples.  They both played Bandit last year, but it looks like the plan is to start them on opposite ends this fall.  I like it.

After that, depth is decent to good.  Tim Kynard played a lot of minutes last fall, and he’ll be the backup at the rush end position.  At the Leo (Leo is the new Bandit), it’s redshirt freshman Darrius Caldwell.  Caldwell – oh he’s just the guy Vic Koenning compared to DeMarcus Ware and said was a future NFL star if he finds a Whitney Mercilus work ethic to match his athletic potential.  I kinda never posted that after the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl because it felt like putting undue pressure on the kid.  But after a few swim moves in the spring game, I’m all in.  Darrius Caldwell – as much athletic potential as any kid Vic Koenning ever coached.  “Another DeMarcus Ware if he works at it”.

Why so many words about Darrius Caldwell?  Because I want Illinois football to win.  And when I see lots of seniors starting on this defense next year, I get scared for the future. I get scared of 2003 again and opponents moving on us at will and dark places with bad men who make my life miserable.  And with the last three recruiting classes being the three lowest-ranked classes of the Zook tenure, I get nail-biting worried.

So when Vic Koenning tells me Darrius Caldwell is the future star of this defense, I cling to it like Pat Fitzgerald to sub-.500 non conference opponents.  I want to write things in ink.  When I saw Jonathan Brown make a read, plug a hole, and stuff a ballcarrier in October of 2010, I tweeted that we had a future All Big Ten linebacker.  Because I wanted it on the record.  Check that box, and there’s only three or four more boxes I have to check to guarantee that the bad man won’t return.  It’s way too soon to put Caldwell in ink, but I’m holding the pen.

Depth beyond that is somewhat unknown.  There’s DJ Woods, who was a project recruit added to the 2010 class a week after signing day.  But if I remember correctly, the new staff is looking at him as a defensive tackle.  Which leaves Kenny Nelson, a redshirt freshman who is raw but has that lanky frame with long arms you could mold into a college DE.  But I’m guessing he’s a few years away.  So in the 2013 class, two defensive ends, please.

Defensive Tackle

Another position where we’re set this fall and might be in big trouble in 2013.  Akeem Spence should be an all-Big Ten player.  And given that he was a redshirt and will graduate in a year, I’m guessing he’ll declare for the NFL draft in January.  The other starter in Glenn Foster, who has quickly gone from sketchy sophomore backup to Corey Liuget to solid senior starter.  I’m not worried one bit about DT this fall.

After that?  Anyone’s guess.  There were three defensive tackles in the 2011 class (Clint Tucker, Chris Jones, and Willie Beavers), but none of them made it to campus.  Well, Jones made it to campus, but was arrested 10 days later and kicked off the team.  Given that, our DT depth consists of two redshirt sophomores – Austin Teitsma and Jake Howe.  Teitsma is a high-motor guy who shows potential, but he’s still around 260, which is fairly undersized for a Big Ten defensive tackle.  He can be a great pest, but I’m unsure how he’ll perform against a massive line like Wisconsin or Michigan.  Howe is a bigger kid who looks the part, but after moving from high school fullback, is still learning the position.  It will be interesting to see how he develops this fall, because he’s a likely starter in 2013.

There’s also Chris O’Connor, who I always forget about (sorry Chris).  Like DJ Woods, I’m not sure if he’s a DE or DT.  He still has lots of strength and bulk to add, so I’m guessing two more years of getting bigger and stronger and then see what he has in his fourth (redshirt junior) year.  We’ll also add two true freshmen this fall (and fairly highly regarded freshmen) in Teko Powell and Vontrell Williams.  Because we have two solid starters this fall, I’m guessing both will redshirt and then join the 6-way battle for the two starting spots in 2013.  As far as recruiting this year, we need at least one new DT.

Linebacker

I actually feel really good about the linebackers moving forward.  The starters look solid, the young kids look ready, and the recruits look strong.

Let’s just take a quick peek at the next four linebacking corps. Off the top of my head.

2012: Houston Bates – Jonathan Brown – Ashante Williams w/ Cooper/Dickinson/Fuller
2013: Houston Bates – Jonathan Brown – TaJarvis Fuller w/ Cooper/Dickinson/Grimes
2014: Houston Bates – Henry Dickinson – TaJarvis Fuller w/ Cooper/Neal/Monheim
2015: Zeph Grimes – TJ Neal – TaJarvis Fuller w/ Svetina/Monheim

I feel good about all of that, even if some of the projected starters don’t pan out.  Bates isn’t the answer at WLB and eventually moves to Leo?  Maybe Zeph Grimes takes his spot.  Dickinson isn’t ready to take over for Brown after he leaves?  Maybe Ralph Cooper or TJ Neal can step in.  TaJarvis Fuller isn’t ready to take over for Ashante Williams after next season?  Nah – TaJarvis is going to be a superstar.  Three plays in the Spring Game and I already inked him for the next four years.

OK, maybe that’s a little much, but TaJarvis Fuller looked really great out there this spring.  He caught my eye at the one practice that was open to the media (making a play on fourth down to stop the offense in the two-minute drill).  And then his 7 tackle (2 TFL), 2 PBU performance in the Spring Game made me grab my pen.  Had he come down with the second PBU (it should have been an interception but the wet ball slipped right through his hands), I might have inked him in as a four-year starter.  That, of course, is way too soon to be deciding that a kid will be a superstar, but again, I’m dying to find the future stars of this defense.  For an early-enrollee true freshman, he looked fantastic.  There really is a best-case scenario for him this fall.  One year as Ashante Williams’ understudy at the Star position, and then become a star.

Future needs?  One solid interior linebacker (Eric Beisel come on down), and one solid DB/LB that projects as a Star (Sam Linebacker).  That guy will redshirt, though, because Star is spoken for through 2015.

Cornerback

*record scratches off*

Everything was going along so perfectly.  Caldwell is the future at DE, Vontrell/Teko at DT, TaJarvis Fuller a superStar… and now cornerback.  The good news:  I really believe this year will be our top corner tandem since… I’ll say Robert Crumpton/Scott Turner in 1994.  The bad news:  The third cornerback (Jack Ramsey) is also a senior.  And the fourth cornerback is redshirt freshman Eaton Spence.  And the fifth cornerback, well, there isn’t one.

Three seniors, a redshirt freshman, and that’s it.  Seriously.  We have four scholarship cornerbacks, and three will be graduating next year.  Holy crap.

So in 2013, our starting corners will likely be Eaton Spence (who has yet to play a down of football yet) and one of the freshmen this fall (who have yet to play a down of football yet).  We might go from the best corner tandem in 20 years to the most inexperienced and pick-on-able corners in 40 years.

I wish I could tell you that we can expect to be surprised from some of the young guys, but the young guys in this case have to go to class on Monday because they’re still in high school.  It’s typically a minimum 2-year process for any high school cornerback to understand the nuances of a college defense, and now one of them will need to be starting in 2013 because we have no other corners.

The sort-of good news: my favorite player on film in the 2012 class is V’Angelo Bentley, a cornerback from Cleveland Glenville.  Here’s what I said on signing day after obsessing over his film:

He’s not ranked as high as some of these other guys, and he doesn’t have the offers that the players above have, but I might be more excited about Bentley than any other player in this class. We need cornerbacks so very badly, and I think this kid can be a great one. Go watch some of his highlights from this video to see what I’m talking about. It’s 14 minutes long, so just skip to the 2:10 mark and watch all of his highlights from the game that Glenville played at Ohio State’s stadium. Punt return for a touchdown, fumble return for a touchdown, and several great runs (he was a tailback in high school but projects as a corner in college).

I’m a huge fan of high school tailbacks at cornerback (see: Green, Justin). And with Green and Hawthorne set to graduate next year, we’ll have openings for starters at both cornerback spots. I’m guessing Bentley will hold down one of those spots in 2013.

ALE Projection: I don’t think he redshirts. I think he’s our 3rd or 4th corner next year, and a starter in 2013. That’s probably putting too much on a kid who only had 4 or 5 BCS offers, but I really like his film. And his high school.

Joining Bentley in this class are Justin Hardee (his teammate at Cleveland Glenville who might be more of a safety (or even wide receiver) than a corner, and Jevaris Little, a cornerback from St. Petersburg, Florida.  We have another corner committed already for the 2013 class (Dillan Cazley, who I really like on film), but we probably need two more corners in that class.

So that’s the best corner tandem in 20 years, followed by the least-experience corner tandem in several generations (and possibly the least-experienced corners in Illini Football history).  OK, not history.  Like, when the 1890 team lined up to play Illinois Wesleyan in the first ever Illini Football game, those corners had ZERO experience.

Safety

How did I get this wordy?  I’m almost to 2,000 words on the defense.  I think I gave the quarterbacks one paragraph in the first post, and then expanded each position from there, and now I’m going on and on about cornerbacks.  Oh well.  If you know anything about me, you know this – I could go on for another 1,500 words.

Safety.  Hey, look more seniors who are graduating.  The starters next year will be the starters from last year – senior Supo Sanni and junior STEVEHULL.  And the third safety off the bench, likely subbing in at both safety spots, is senior Patrick Nixon-Youman.  I think that will be the main safety rotation this fall, with a little Earnest Thomas (moved from OLB to safety) and maybe some walkon Ben Mathis (I’ll keep talking about him until you see him on the field).  Next year, it will be STEVEHULL at one spot and then a battle between Mathis and Thomas for the other spot, with a chance that redshirt-freshman-this-fall Nick North joins the party.

It was just a short time ago that I thought our safeties of the future would be Corey Cooper (now at Nebraska) and Dondi Kirby (now at a Juco in New York).  Wait, can we get Kirby back for 2013?  Someone get on that, stat. Now, after the seniors (Sanni and PNY) and the juniors (Hull and Mathis) are gone, we’re left with Nick North, maybe Earnest Thomas if he stays at safety, and several freshmen.  Not the stunning inexperience that we have at cornerback, but not much better.  We need some kids to step up FAST.  I’m looking at you, Earnest Thomas.

We do have two safeties in the incoming class, Taylor Barton and BJ Bello.  But neither were all that highly recruited, which usually means “redshirt, two years, see what that have as upperclassmen”.  Unfortunately, one or both will need to play in their second season.

Safety, like corner, is a spot where I wouldn’t mind us taking a look at a few jucos.  We need players that can play immediately in 2013, so that’s either 4-star safeties or a juco.  I’ll take one of each, please.

OK, so the whole series, summed up in one sentence:  We set at QB, need some tailbacks to add depth, just fine at tight end, desperate for a few receivers to step forward, extremely young at offensive tackle, deep at center/guard, hopeful for the young guys at DE, wait-and-see after the seniors leave at DT, surprisingly deep at linebacker, stunningly thin at corner, and not-much-better at safety.

Oh wait – special teams.  That’s easy.  DuVernois will hopefully step forward and grab the punting job, but if he doesn’t, there’s Brad Janitz and Garrett Stroup waiting in the wings (and Ryan Lankford in a pinch).  And one of these six kickers will win the job this summer and likely hold it for 3-4 years: Immekus, Zalewski (my guess), Blau, Dunn, VanMieghem, or true-freshman Frain.

OK, I’m tired.  I don’t feel like editing this one.  Sorry about the typos above.  Just consider it “Stream of Consciousness – The Roster”.

I worked a summer job in a resort area during my first three college summers. Live at a lake house with three friends, work at a restaurant, spend all of your tip money two hours after you receive it but make more tomorrow – it was pretty much the best possible college summer. Times three.

As you can imagine, working at a resort restaurant that only hires college kids led to several Zack-Morris-falls-for-the-girl-from-King-of-Queens summer romances. Jamie likes Mark but Mark likes Christina, there’s lots of drama, nobody cares by September. Tell me more, tell me more.

My friends and I always joked that there was one summer romance each year that was by default. Several couples that fell in deep summer love, and then two people who seemingly looked at each other and said “well, if everyone is going to see Jurassic Park tomorrow, I guess maybe you and me should go together.” (In my summer of 1993 hypotheticals, the characters have poor grammar.) It’s not that they really wanted to be together or even liked each other that much – it’s just that it seemed like the thing everyone was doing.

This is how I feel about Northwestern.

Much has been made about this sign the last few days. Tim Beckman said from his first press conference that he believes in rivals and would “never wear purple”. Given that he said this a few hours after he was hired, and given that his last three stops were Ohio State (where they hate Michigan), Oklahoma State (where they hate Oklahoma), and Toledo (where they hate the team 22 miles away – Bowling Green), I’m guessing he just made an assumption that the two teams in Illinois – teams that are “protected rivals” according to the Big Ten and must play every year – were bitter rivals.

Thing is, we’re not. Well, we kind of are. But not really. Ok, maybe.

Northwestern fans don’t really think we’re rivals. We used to play for this really sweet tomahawk, but now we play for the LOL trophy (Land Of Lincoln – seriously, the LOL trophy). I kind of hated Lee Gissendaner for ruining our homecoming in 1992 – does that count? For the majority of Illini and Mildcat fans, there simply wasn’t ever much of a rivalry.

For me personally, mostly due to the arrival of the smuggiest smugster that ever smugged, Pat Fitzgerald, I’ve come to find some hate in my heart (yay me!). It still feels gross to think of Northwestern as a rival, but beating Fitzee sure is fun. And every time he speaks of the superior human beings he recruits I want to hulksmash, so maybe, if there’s hope for the rivalry in my heart, there’s hope for everyone.

But mostly I just see Chicago’s (fourth favorite) Big Ten Team as a rival by default. I’d love for it to be Iowa, but they hate Minnesota and, in 5 years, will hate Nebraska more than anyone. Indiana has Purdue, so both of those are cancelled out. Wisconsin probably makes the most sense – we’re in the same division in football and will play every year, plus they have a basketball team now after 50 years of futility, so we could really build something there. But most of Wisconsin hates Minnesota (and some Iowa). We’re not really on their radar, despite sharing a border.

All of this, of course, is our fault. We’ve never been able to sustain enough success to build a football rivalry, and in basketball, it keeps changing (1980′s were full-on Bobby Knight hate, the Bruce Pearl affair made Iowa the hated team in the 1990′s, and then it’s been a mix of Michigan State, Wisconsin, and oh yeah Indiana since). And, of course, for those of us that grew up in southwestern Illinois, Missouri is the team to hate. But that’s confined to one part of the state.

So when you ask a Northwestern fan who their rival is, they’ll likely say “we’ve never really been good enough to have a rival, but the Iowa thing has been fun in football and we always want to beat Illinois in basketball.” And if you ask an Illinois fan, most would say Indiana in basketball (although Indiana hates Purdue more) and some combination of Michigan/Iowa/Ohio State in football (but all three couldn’t care less about us).

Which leads us to today. After years of denial, I think I’m ready to fully acknowledge Northwestern as our rival, at least in football. No more “it feels gross because it gives credence to their football program”. We’re locked in to playing them every year, and Pat Fitzgerald’s smug mug will be smugging it up on the sideline, and the 519 rushing yards at Wrigley is still my most satisfying football moment since the Rose Bowl, so why not? Circle with a line through Northwestern it is.

I mean, I’ve been behaving this way for a long time. My most enthusiastic From-The-Stands podcasts have been after the last two Northwestern games. Every time Fitzee says “that team in orange” or whatever his smug little face says, I want to stomp perfectly good flower beds. And let’s be honest – since I started school in 1991, Northwestern has won 12 times and we’ve won 9 (gross gross groce gross). And their overall record is better. The only thing we have to hold over them in the last 21 years are the two BCS bowls. And our four bowl wins since then (they have none since before my mother was born). AND the 886 days since they last beat us on the football field.

So bring it on, Fighting Fitzees. I hereby commit to sending you 74% of my football hate (can’t muster any basketball hate yet – sorry. It’s all Missouri all the time for me, and oh yeah Indiana). We might be paired together by default, but it’s what all the cool kids do. Northwestern Week on ALionEye.com – now with 20% more hate every year. Purple sucks.

My wife ran a half marathon today.  Go-getter, that one.  I don’t know if you’ve ever cheered for someone in a half marathon before, but it’s a long, long, long time of standing around waiting for them to run by, and then four seconds of support.  “Good job baby keep it up you can do this OK she’s gone.”

Some spectators choose to encourage everyone running by.  “Great job – keep it up” times 1,300.  I am not one of those people.  I stand there and mentally take inventory of our football roster, trying to figure out our recruiting needs in the future.  I occasionally would snap back to reality and wonder if I missed my wife running by while I was listing off our outside linebackers, but then it was right back to the roster.

My wife set her PR. Inspired by that, because this is who I am, I think I’ll try to set a PR for “useful information contained in one post”.  I’m gonna need some of you to send me a few “good job – keep it up” cheers as I go along here.  And a Gatorade when I’m finished.

Our offensive roster, and my opinion on the future depth at each position (I’ll get to the defense later this week).

Quarterbacks

We’re in pretty good shape here.  Scheelhaase and Osei are juniors, O’Toole is a sophomore, and Chase Haslett is our freshman scholarship QB after a redshirt year.  We have one for each class (except for a senior), so we’re set for a couple years.  But it’s still important to bring in a QB in this class.  Hopefully a dual-threat QB that can redshirt next year, split time with O’Toole in 2014, and then battle Haslett for the job as a redshirt sophomore. Your move, Aaron Bailey.

Running Backs

We got our first glimpse of the new offense yesterday. First two plays for the Blue offense were fly sweep, fly sweep (for more on the fly sweep and its really good looking cousin, the shovel sweep, watch this video). I think we learned that this offense will be less power and more finesse.  They only showed us 14% of the offense (because the Western Michigan coaches were certainly watching on BTN), but I think what we saw tells us we’ll be a spread-y spread offense.  Which means a premium on small, quick tailbacks.

Luckily, we have a pretty good one in Josh Ferguson.  And a great still-on-his-feet compliment in Donovonn Young.  Both can be solid Big Ten tailbacks, with Ferguson possibly having the brighter future given the offensive scheme.  Behind them, three freshmen arrive next fall (Dami Ayoola, Lakeith Walls, and Devin Church), and the 2013 class already has another midget tailback (Kendrick Foster) on the board.  So that’s Young backed up by Ean Days, Dami Ayoola, and Lakeith Walls as the power back, and Ferguson backed up by Devin Church and Kendrick Foster as the more scatback type.  Depth, but probably lacks star power like Mikel or Rashard.  So if any star-power tailbacks want to give us a look, hey, we’re open.

Tight End

Probably the deepest position on the team.  Eddie Viliunas is a senior – former walkon QB turned scholarship tight end – and I’m expecting a surprising senior season.  Evan Wilson will be a junior (with two years starting under his belt), and Justin Lattimore is another junior with some experience.  And the two most talented tight ends are sophomores – Jon Davis (who they used all over the field yesterday from wideout to tailback), and Matt LaCosse (who just looks like that Iowa Tight End who has always killed us).

We could probably recruit zero tight ends this year and be completely fine.  We’re in great hands, especially with Davis and LaCosse.

Wide Receiver

The health of Darius Millines’ foot.  This should be the #1 offseason concern for all Illini fans.  If he’s healthy – and I know I sound like a broken record after repeating this weekly since Camp Rantoul last summer – he can somewhat seamlessly replace AJ.  No, he won’t be a first team All Big 10 selection, but I really do think he could have a 2010 AJ season (56 catches for 746 yards and 7 touchdowns).  Of course, after missing part of his freshman year with an injury, and then all of last spring with a foot injury, and then six games last season with a foot injury, and then most of this spring with a foot injury, you have to legitimately wonder if he’ll ever be healthy enough for a full season as the go-to receiver.

OK, one more trip back to Camp Rantoul last August, and then I’m done referencing Millines’ potential.  My thoughts from last summer after closely watching all of the receivers one practice:

One thing that is easy, in my opinion, is to watch individual drills. All 12 (15?) wide receivers will go through the same drill, so you can see who tucks the ball away the best, who comes out of his breaks the best, who has the best footwork, who has the best hands, etc. Here’s the awards I would give out if it was based on today’s practice (AJ Jenkins would win many of these categories, but he’s a bit slowed by a hamstring injury):

Best Footwork: Darius Millines
Best Routes: Darius Millines
Best Acceleration: Ryan Lankford
Best Hands: Darius Millines
Best Go-Up-And-Get-It: Spencer Harris
Best Stop-And-Turn: Darius Millines

Darius Millines Darius Millines Darius Millines. I always categorize these Camp Rantoul practices in my head by one significant event, and this was certainly The Darius Millines Practice. His most impressive play? 7-on-7 drill (no linemen), at the 10, Millines reaches the goal line, digs his feet in to cut back, and separates himself from Justin Green by 5 yards. Nate throws the out for an easy TD. Millines’ stopping and cutting ability was very, very impressive today.

So I think a healthy Millines gives us that go-to option at receiver. But what else do we have? I still think Ryan Lankford and Spencer Harris are options #2 and #3 at wideout. But with a spread like this, we need four or five (six?) options at wideout. I really have no idea who those guys would be. Fritz Rock? Anthony Williams? Jordan Frysinger? Kenny Knight? Jeremy Whitlow? A walkon like Peter Bonahoom or Tim Lukas? Incoming freshman Jason Robertson? Somebody is going to have to step up. Or we’re going to have to go recruit someone to step up.

Best case scenario, this next class has two wide receivers perfectly suited for a spread. After these three juniors graduate, I’m just not sure who the go-to guys will be.

Offensive Line

In short, I think we’re OK with interior depth and really lacking in tackle depth.

In my perfect world, every offensive lineman starts in their fourth year as a redshirt junior.  They’ve spent three full seasons eating and lifting and learning that playing offensive lineman in the Big Ten is a lot more complex than maul-and-brawl high school games, and then they’re ready for game action.  They play two seasons, and then hand off to the next redshirt junior.

For our tackles, we don’t have any juniors.  Or seniors.  We have two redshirt sophomores, and two redshirt freshmen.  (For comparison, Wisconsin has nine offensive tackles on their roster, and I believe every single one of them redshirted.)  So our two starters, Michael Heitz and Simon Cvijanovic, are probably still a year away from when they should be finding the field.  That’s an issue.

We probably need three or four offensive tackles in this next class.  The good news: we already have two that have verballed.  The bad news: we won’t have our depth at that position built to a Wisconsin level until 2016 or so.

At guard and center, I think we have enough options that we’ll be able to find a winning combination the next few years.  Graham Pocic and Hugh Thornton are locks to start in this their final season, and a third senior, Tyler Sands, might start at the other guard spot.  But redshirt freshman Teddy Karras is probably ahead of schedule, and redshirt sophomore Alex Hill is probably getting close, and other guys like Tony Durkin show potential for the future.  There’s also Jake Feldmeyer and Shawn Afryl and Chris Boles, plus a few recruits coming in this fall in Joseph Spencer and Robbie Bain.  However it shakes out, I think we’ll be able to find a combination that will work for the next several years.

So for recruiting in the 2013 class, give me four tackles and a guard.  I don’t even have to have the guard – just give me four tackles.  And Aaron Bailey.  OK, fine, just give me Aaron Bailey.

*chugs Gatorade, stretches fingers*

I have one of those blocks again. Where I start a blog post 3 different times, but I don’t like any of it, so I erase it, and I go get something to eat, and I come back and wonder why the words won’t come out. Usually, I have to process something. There’s something in the way, and I need to talk about it before the words will flow. And I think I know what it is.

It’s Matt Alviti picking Northwestern. I know, right? I just got home from the Spring Game, one of my favorite days of the year, and all I can think about is a 4-star quarterback picking Northwestern. Northwestern.

As you know, if you’ve ever read any words in this space, I care way too much about recruiting. Mostly because it’s everything in college sports. The reason Kentucky and Kansas and Ohio State and Louisville went to the Final Four was 17% coaching and 83% recruiting. The reason Alabama played LSU in the title game in January was 8% coaching and 92% recruiting. If you want a chance at title games, you have to land top-end talent. It’s really very simple.

This, of course, is not to say that you can’t win games without recruiting. Boise State hasn’t exactly landed world-beating recruiting classes the last 10 years, nor has TCU or even Wisconsin. If you build a system and recruit to that system, you don’t need Alabama-like talent to win. You simply need to land the targets necessary to keep your system going strong.

But in the end, it’s about getting those players. The reason Indiana has only been to two bowls the last 20 years is because they’ve recruited the least-talented players in the Big Ten. Northwestern hasn’t won a bowl game since the 1940′s not because of a long string of poor coaches – they simply haven’t been able to recruit top-flight players. In football or basketball, where they’ve never made the tourney.

So to see them land one of the best recruits in Northwestern history today is to see me depressed. If we had a few 4-stars already verballed at this point, I’m probably not writing this. But we don’t. Not really even close. Top-flight Illinois kids just don’t seem to feel any connection to our football program. And their disinterest holds me hostage. We need them to win games. My dreams can’t come true without them. But they’re not choosing to come to Champaign. And one of them just chose Evanston. And that’s just depressing.

OK – I am now free to move about the spring game.

+ The spring game has to be the most frustrating day for Nathan Scheelhaase every year. As a running quarterback (and as a competitor), he can’t wait to run on that field and execute a read option, but in his white jersey, he’s playing one-hand-touch while all the other players are playing tackle. I get it, but it’s so unfair to him. His game is creating with his feet, both in the running game and the passing game, but in this format, if someone gets and outstretched index finger on him, he’s “tackled”.

There was one play where most every receiver ran a deep route, and the middle linebacker dropped a little too far in coverage, and Nate had about 20 yards of running room. But someone reached out as he left the pocket and he was “tackled” for a minimal gain. Seriously think about that for a second. When a quarterback escapes the pocket, in either college or the pros, how often does he do it completely un-touched? Once per game? As the pocket collapses, nearly every QB has to jump through holes or spin out of tackles to get away. But in this format, there’s really nothing the QB can do. One outstretched hand is a tackle.

+ That said, Nathan never found a rhythm today and pretty much had one of his poorer performances to date. 11-26 for 65 yards. Several air-mailed passes. One bad decision that was almost a pick-6 for Ashante Williams. An underthrown ball on a bomb to Fritz Rock that Jack Ramsey batted away. An overthrown ball on a bomb to Peter Bonahoom. Both those last two plays were touchdowns, and both were incomplete.

As I said above, I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt because his whole game flows from his feet. This is a brand new system, and as he gets more comfortable, both in the pocket and with his reads, I’m expecting to see improvement. But 11-26 won’t cut it against Michigan. And it probably won’t cut it against Western Michigan.

+ Players I loved today:

Terry Hawthorne – Scored a touchdown on a 29 yard pass play, and almost had a tipped-three-times-to-himself interception that might have made SportsCenter if he had come down with it. I want all Black Cat all the time this fall – punt returns, wide receiver, cornerback, whatever. Make this The Terry Hawthorne Year.

TaJarvis Fuller – Great instincts. He also made a few big plays in the practice I watched two weeks ago, and did so again today with 7 tackles, 2 TFL’s, and 2 PBU’s. He’s only a true freshmen, but I’d say he’s a lock to play. Watch out, Ashante Williams. You’ve got a true freshman on your heels at Star linebacker.

Jonathan Brown – Coach Beckman said after the game that he was “just tapping his potential”. I agree. I was scaring myself trying to think of our last linebacker with his instincts. “Probably better than J, instinct-wise. Do we go all the way back to Dana Howard?”

Michael Buchanan – OK, so they were touch sacks, but 3 of his 4.5 sacks today would have been legitimate sacks in a game. He beat his guy straight up and was unabated to the quarterback. They’re lucky he was kind enough to slow up and just give them a little tap.

Taylor Zalewski – I know Ryan Frain is coming in on scholarship, but I still think Zalewski can win the kicking job. Mostly because when he wins the kicking job, I can be all “I TOLD YOU BACK IN NOVEMBER HE WOULD WIN THE JOB IN 2012 AND I WAS RIGHT SO I’M PRETTY MUCH THE GREATEST KICKER EVALUATOR EVER.”

Josh Ferguson – If you watched the Spring Game Draft video the other day, you saw that the #1 pick was Nathan Scheelhaase, and the #2 pick was Josh Ferguson. Which tells me the players recognize that he’s the perfect fit for this offense. He showed that today.

Akeem Spence – He’s just so hard to contain. Defensive tackles don’t have to make tackles to have an impact. They can simply disrupt everything the offense is trying to do by clogging up the middle. He’s a state champion clogger.

Thus endeth the “players I loved today” list. And yes, I realize I only mentioned one offensive guy. You may absolutely read everything you possibly can into that statement.

+ 9 of 36 on third down between the two teams. Nine of thirty-six. Yes, it’s a new offense with a completely new blocking scheme and offensive linemen split into different teams – no offense is going to look good one month into a changeover. Especially with quarterbacks who really can’t run due to the touch rules.

But 9 for 36. Ouch.

+ Because this was the last organized football before the freshmen arrive, I always look at the Spring Game as a scrimmage that will reveal where some true freshmen might be able to play right away. Spots I see available:

Safety: with Supo Sanni and Steve Hull sitting this one out with injuries, our lack of safety depth was fairly obvious. The backups played admirably (Earnest Thomas looks better at safety than he did as a Sam linebacker), but there are still backup minutes up for grabs. BJ Bello, Taylor Barton – an opportunity for early playing time awaits.

Wide Receiver: Lots of bodies at receiver, but no real obvious threat has emerged yet. I still think Darius Millines is the go-to guy (if he’s ever healthy), and I think Ryan Lankford and Spencer Harris are the obvious #2 and #3, but there are minutes to be had if Jason Robertson (or maybe even Justin Hardee, if they try him on offense) can impress in fall camp.

Offensive Line: It’s very, very, very hard for an offensive lineman to come in and be ready to play as a true freshman. Jeff Allen did it, Hugh Thornton did it, and before them Jon Asamoah and even Ray Redziniak. But with Tim Beckman saying after the game that they might look at moving Pocic or Thornton around to find a better line balance, there’s an obvious opportunity for a Joseph Spencer or a Robbie Bain to quickly learn the system and play right away.

OK, I need to go to bed. And dream of 4-star quarterbacks coming to Champaign. Aaron Bailey, a weary Illini nation turns our eyes to you.

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