With the rumors swirling last night that the Big Ten would announce their divisions this evening, I had two fears when I woke up this morning.  OK, three, with one being Blaine Gabbert having 6 seconds to throw on every down this Saturday.  But the Big Ten realignment fears were twofold: Would we be placed in the Group Of Death, and, more specifically, would the realignment destroy what was a very promising 2011 football schedule?  The latter I wrote about a few weeks ago…

That feeling that just hit your gut? Yep – hit mine too. Here’s the scenario that scares me to death:

We struggle at the beginning of 2010. The new schemes, the freshman QB, the difficult schedule – it’s ugly for 6 weeks. But in the second half of the season, things start to take shape. We start winning a few close games, the players start grasping the new schemes more and more, and we finish the season on a little roll. We look around, realize that nearly everyone is coming back, and start ramping up for what might be a nice little 2011. Excitement returns, but then someone taps us on the shoulder and reminds us of the revised Big Ten schedule, which could read…

Iowa
at Penn State
Wisconsin
at Michigan State
at Ohio State
Northwestern
at Michigan
Nebraska

Let’s break down each fear and see how we did.

Divisions

As you have certainly seen by now, here’s the teams we’ll be playing year in, year out, for eternity:

Ohio State
Penn State
Wisconsin
Indiana
Purdue

I’ll take it.

My first reaction is that I would have rather been paired with Michigan and Nebraska. Ohio State is an unstoppable force right now, and Penn State is showing no signs of slowing down. Both Michigan and Nebraska have been through multiple “wow – no bowl?” seasons recently, and I’d love to fight them for a shot at the new championship game instead of OSU and PSU.

But that’s just 2010 talking. Say these divisions were put together 10 years ago. Penn State was coming off their first losing season in 13 years, and the cries for JoePa to retire were growing strong. Ohio State was in the middle of a 6-6, 8-4, 7-5 stretch, while Michigan was 9-3 and three years removed from a National Championship. Speaking of National Championships, Nebraska had won three in the 90′s and was in the middle of a nine year run where they finished in the top-10 eight times. If these divisions were announced 10 years ago, we’d be throwing so-you’re-saying-there’s-a-chance parties.

Overall, I think the Big Ten did a fine job with the divisions. As my boy Lindsey Willhite pointed out, the two Big Ten divisions have equal .580 winning percentages since 1993.  That’s pretty well done.  Sure, we have to face Penn State and Ohio State every year, but we also get Indiana and Purdue every year.  And we get a bonus.  As “protected rivalries” go, we’re pretty lucky to have Northwestern.  Sure, they may be on a nice little two year run, but big picture, I’ll absolutely take that yearly game.  Point #20 of the 19 Point Plan – make it our goal to keep the program above Indiana, Purdue, and Northwestern.  Consistently beat these three teams every fall and schedule ourselves three wins in the non-conference… BOOM, yearly bowls.  Get to that point and then we can start thinking about upsetting Wisconsin or Penn State and winning 8 or 9 games.

2011 Schedule

This could have been so much worse.  With four winnable September non-conference home games next fall, I was totally expecting to get screwed and have to deal with the nightmare schedule listed above.  Instead, Nebraska has to.  (Seriously, replace “Nebraska” with “Minnesota”, and that’s their conference schedule for their first two years in the Big Ten. Welcome Cornhuskers!)

The first 6 games in 2011?

9-3 Arkansas State
9-10 South Dakota State
9-17 Arizona State
9-24 Western Michigan
10-1 Northwestern
10-8 @ Indiana

Yes, seriously. Are my eyes deceiving me, or do I see a punchers chance at a 6-0 start? Depending on whether Northwestern takes a step forward or a step back this fall, we might be favored in all 6 games. 6-0 OHIO STATE VS. 6-0 ILLINOIS IN CHAMPAIGN SATURDAY OCTOBER 15TH, 2011 WITH ESPN GAMEDAY IN TOWN MARK YOUR CALENDARS NOW.

*takes breath, collects self*

Let’s just get back to a bowl first. Heck, let’s just go to our first non-BCS bowl since Clinton was in office. With the full 2011 schedule, I think we can get there. Our last 5 games are at Purdue, at Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin, at Minnesota. (At Minnesota, in their new outdoor stadium, after Thanksgiving? Yikes.) That’s probably a 2-4 finish (or maybe 1-5), but hey, rattle of the first 6, and we’re talkin’ Gator Bowl, baby.

(Slow Down. Baby Steps. Breathe.)

Overall, it’s fairly comparable with our first 2011 schedule. We kept Wisconsin and Northwestern home games, held on to Indiana and Purdue road games, and swapped at Iowa, Michigan State, at Michigan, Penn State for at Minnesota, Ohio State, at Penn State, Michigan. All in all, an OK trade. I don’t like getting Ohio State back on the schedule, but at least it’s at home. And instead of at Michigan and home for Penn State we’re home for Michigan and at Penn State. Add to that a game at Minnesota instead of a game at Iowa and, well, I’ll take it. What could have been disastrous turned out to be just OK.

Whew.

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Before the official depth chart comes out this week, I thought I’d take a stab at the starters and backups (just in case Zook is looking for suggestions). This year I’m going to correctly name every player on offense… and get maybe 2 of the 8 members of the secondary correct. There’s a chance that before I’m done typing this, we’ll have moved Scheelhaase to safety and Jeff Allen to cornerback.

QB: Nathan Scheelhaase / Chandler Whitmer
RB: Mikel Leshoure / Jason Ford / Troy Pollard
FB: Chris Willett / Jay Prosch
TE: Evan Wilson / Justin Lattimore OR Eddie Viliunas
WR1: AJ Jenkins / Chris James
WR2: Jarred Fayson / Darius Millines
WR3: Eddie McGee / Fred Sykes
Weakside Tackle: Jeff Allen / Michael Heitz
Weakside Guard: Hugh Thornton / Anterio Jackson
Center: Graham Pocic / Tyler Sands
Strongside Guard: Randall Hunt / Jack Cornell
Strongside Tackle: Ryan Palmer / Craig Wilson

DE: Clay Nurse / Whitney Mercilus
DT: Corey Liuget / Glenn Foster
DT: Akeem Spence / Daryle Ballew
Bandit: Michael Buchanan / Nate Palmer
SLB: Nate Bussey / Ashante Williams OR Earnest Thomas
MLB: Martez Wilson / Evan Frierson
WLB: Ian Thomas / Aaron Gress
CB: Justin Green / Miami Thomas
CB: Travon Bellamy / Patrick Nixon-Youman
FS: Tavon Wilson / Joelil Thrash
SS: Trulon Henry / Fritz Rock
K: Derek Dimke / Matt Eller
P: Anthony Santella / Brad Janitz

+ Taking a wild guess that Craig Wilson will be listed as Ryan Palmer’s backup instead of Jeff Allen’s backup. If either Allen or Palmer goes down with an injury (Dear God Please No), I think Wilson is the backup. It was a camp battle between Michael Heitz, Simon Cvijanovic, and Nate Swanson for the fourth tackle spot. I’m guessing that Heitz gets the nod. And that he’s listed behind Allen.

+ I listed different backups at each OL position, but I really think it will go like this: Jack Cornell is the replacement at either guard (I think they’re more comfortable with him at strongside guard, so if he replaces Hunt, Cornell is strongside; if he replaces Thornton, Hunt goes to Thornton’s spot on the weak side and Cornell is strongside).  If either tackle comes out for a breather, it’s Craig Wilson.  And if Pocic comes out, it’s Tyler Sands (or possibly Jake Feldmeyer).

+ With the WR rotation upside down because of all the position switching, here’s my new catches chart.  The top 7, in order of receptions:

AJ Jenkins
Jarred Fayson
Eddie McGee
Darius Millines
Fred Sykes
Chris James
Ryan Lankford

+ I’m very worried about twin tight end sets with Zach Becker injured and London Davis gone. That was probably your two-deep at blocking tight end, while Wilson/Lattimore was probably your two deep at receiving tight end. They would mix and match them all (including the fullbacks), so it’s not like there’s no one to play that specific position, but I’m worried that when we go to the twin TE set, we’re heavy on the catching and light on the blocking. Walkon QB turned TE Eddie Viliunas might have found a role here. Or maybe Russell Ellington (once he returns from injury).

+ I really need to find a spot for Justin Staples.  I saw him working out at both rush end and Bandit in Rantoul.  Whitney Mercilus is probably the true backup for Clay Nurse, and Nate Palmer is probably the true backup for Michael Buchanan, but Staples might get on the field at both positions.  He still needs to add size and strength, but I think he can be a nice defensive freak for us in a few years.

+ As I said in the mini-podcast, I have no clue what we’ll do in the secondary. Justin Green starts at corner after only a week and a half playing defense? Travon Bellamy is the other corner, or is Patrick Nixon-Youman ready? How soon can STEVEHULL make an impact at safety? If the answer to that is “soon”, does Tavon Wilson go back to corner? Last question: we’ve heard for a long time that Joelil Thrash is a natural corner that we’re trying to shoehorn in at safety. So… maybe… now… switch him back?

+ Some freshman surprises I could see: Darius Millines getting the second most receptions against Mizzou. Evan Wilson getting the most receptions against Mizzou. Brandon Denmark pulling off the redshirt and finding his way on the field at Bandit. Earnest Thomas pushing Ashante Williams for playing time at backup Sam. And Fritz Rock playing sooner rather than later.

+ One last thing: Totally forgot to hand out my two Camp Rantoul awards. I know how devastated you all must feel over this – all I can offer is my deepest apology. And the award history for the 13th time:

Spring 2009 – Spring Ball Crush: Mikel LeShoure; Eye Opening Player: Jerry Brown (*snif*)
Camp Rantoul 2009 – Camp Crush: Juice Williams (*sigh*); Eye Opening Player: Joelil Thrash
Spring 2010 – Spring Ball Crush: Nathan Scheelhaase; Eye Opening Player: Justin Staples

The envelope please…

Camp Rantoul 2010 – Camp Crush: Corey Liuget; Eye Opening Player: Evan Wilson

The leaner, meaner Corey Liuget was an easy pick for Camp Crush. Eye Opening Player was a little harder. The first two days, STEVEHULL jumped out to a huge lead. He looked great in the 7 on 7 drills. But the moment that Evan Wilson caught two redzone balls in the Rantoul Scrimmage (one for a touchdown with the first string, one for first-and-goal-at-the-two with the second string on the very next play), Hull was out and Wilson was in. Sorry, STEVEHULL. We’ll always have Camp Rantoul Practice #5.

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