Had I made a depth chart in March (around the time we began to understand what type of defense Koenning would run), it might have looked something like this.  (Injured/suspended/released players are in bold)

DE: Clay Nurse – Whitney Mercilus
DT: Josh Brent – Akeem Spence
DT: Corey Liuget – Lendell Buckner
Bandit: Michael Buchanan – Nate Palmer
SLB: Nate Bussey – Ashante Williams
MLB: Martez Wilson – Evan Frierson
WLB: Ian Thomas – Aaron Gress
CB: Terry Hawthorne – PNY
CB: Tavon Wilson – Miami Thomas
S: Walt Aikens - Supo Sanni
S: Garrett Edwards – Trulon Henry

OK, so the linebacking corps remains intact.  But we’ve lost half the two-deep in the secondary and half the two-deep on the defensive line.  Can any team – let along a young team with a new coordinator – go through personnel changes like that and still be OK?  There has to be a breaking point, right?

Thankfully, the next three weeks bring us SIU, NIU, and a bye week.  Hopefully, by the time the State University Challenge gets here (OSU-PSU-MSU), we’ll have Hawthorne, Palmer, and maybe Buchanan back out on the field. But until then, we’re really thin in the secondary and Nicole Richie-thin on the defensive line.

So what will the D-line rotation look like this Saturday?  Zook announced that Clay Nurse would slide over to bandit, with Whitney the Mercilus starting at rush end.  I’m not sure if I like that – can Nurse really drop into coverage like Buchanan can? – but it’s probably our best option.  The other option would be to start Justin Staples at bandit (he practiced at rush end most of camp), but apparently the coaches think getting Mercilus on the field is more important than getting Staples on the field.

Backups at each position would probably be Staples over at rush end and true freshman Brandon Denmark at bandit.  Denmark did practice at Bandit all throughout camp, albeit third string behind Buchanan and Palmer, so he has the most experience at the position.  Is a true freshman ready for 20+ snaps on the defensive line in his second game?  I think we’re gonna find out on Saturday.  Denmark burned his redshirt on the opening kickoff against Missouri – might as well find out what the kid can do.

Here’s how I think the defensive rotation plays out on Saturday night.

Defensive Tackle
Corey Liuget and Akeem Spence start and play the most snaps
Glenn Foster is first off the bench
Daryle Ballew gets 10 or so snaps

Defensive End/Bandit
Clay Nurse and Whitney Mercilus start and play the most snaps.
Justin Staples backs up both positions, getting a fair amount of snaps at rush end.
Brandon Denmark gets a decent number of snaps at bandit.

Linebackers
Same as it ever was – Nate Bussey, Martez Wilson, & Ian Thomas start and play the majority of the snaps.
Aaron Gress is first off the bench.
Ashante Williams gets a few snaps at SLB.

Cornerbacks
Justin Green and Travon Bellamy start and play the majority of the snaps.
Patrick Nixon-Youman is first off the bench and probably gets more snaps than the Missouri game.
Jack Ramsey is probably the same – many more snaps than he saw against Missouri.

Safeties
Trulon Henry starts at free safety and Tavon Wilson at strong safety.
Steve Hull gets a ton of snaps at free safety. Possibly more than Trulon.
Joelil Thrash gets 10-15 snaps backing up Wilson.

One more thing.  This just hit me now, and I want to bury it here so I can quote myself next year and say something like “as I told you last September…”

If Steve Hull can produce at safety – a bigger “if” might be whether he stays at safety – I think you might see Trulon Henry move to the Nate Bussey Sam Linebacker/3rd Safety role next fall. Mercilus-Spence-Liuget-Buchanan, Thomas-M. Wilson-Henry, Green-Hull-T. Wilson-Hawthorne.  9 starters return, everyone has experience.

*takes deep breath, concentrates on beating SIU first*

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That outlier was today.  We blew a 10 point halftime lead, and I don’t really care.  A few Missouri fans were up to their normal childishness after the game (screaming at an elderly couple in orange? really, jort-guy?), but it didn’t get to me.  I felt… strangely… good.

We competed.  We fought.  We looked focused.  We went into the 4th quarter with the lead.  We faced seemingly our seventh 4th down from our own 20 with 2 minutes left, and our freshman QB spun out of a tackle, put everything into the throw, and missed 45-yards-to-go-to-tie-it-up by a whisker.  In a game where we’re 13 point underdogs with 3 players at new positions since the semester started, I can’t ask for any more than that.

I’m not sure what the reaction was in Illini Fan land.  I’ve yet to read any blogs, message boards, tweets, or instant reaction game articles.  But for me, I’m damn proud of this team.  Missouri has a really, really solid system going over there right now, and this rag-tag defense played them better than any of the last 4.  I took a quick glance at the boxscore to find this:  We held them to 379 yards (98 rushing).  The last three Illinois/Missouri games, they’ve gained 442, 549, and 429 and scored 129 points.  Today they scored 23. And the majority of that was in the 4th quarter when our offense just couldn’t stay on the field, and our defense was beyond tired.  I’m not trying to make excuses – I’m saying one of these years did not look like the other.  That’s the most effort I can remember from an Illini defense in quite some time.

A few quick hitter thoughts, and then I’m going to go join my family for a delayed holiday weekend at the lake.

+ 9 for 23 for 81 yards with one touchdown, three interceptions, and a fumble. Not the start that Nathan Scheelhaase was hoping for.

But honest to God that was the best looking 9 for 23 for 81 yards with one touchdown, three interceptions, and a fumble performance I’ve ever seen. The offensive line struggled to give him any room to work. The wideouts didn’t do him any favors by dropping several balls (these aren’t Juice fastballs, guys). And Missouri put a spy on him the entire second half, negating the scramble. Yet if Mikel’s toe had been inbounds, I have a feeling Nathan would have found a way to get us 45 more yards and a tie ballgame. This was game one of 50. I’m pretty excited to see what we get by game 15.

+ STEVEHULL looked pretty good at free safety. I sat in the south endzone for the game, so I watched a lot of coverages develop. He seemed to read the plays well, and made a few solid tackles. Not bad for having to learn the defense in 9 days.

+ The two long interceptions Missouri pulled down were really solid plays. The one-handed catch was amazing, and the other bomb to Eddie was a fantastic read. That play is designed to draw the safety from that side of the field up by sending two receivers to the left side, but the safety didn’t bite. He stayed back and caught the pass that was supposed to be 20 yards over his head.

+ The game really turned on two plays. First possession of the second half, we’re in third and 4, and Hugh Thornton misses Aldon Smith on a stunt. Sack, 4th down, punt. Next possession, 3rd and 5. Scheelhaase hits AJ Jenkins over the middle for a first do… no, he dropped it. Punt, two three-and-outs, momentum swing, ballgame.

+ My starting defense next September against Arkansas State (yes, that’s right, we START with a game against a patsy to get our feet under us. Yes – Illinois does this. Next year.)

Mercilus-Spence-Liuget-Buchanan
Thomas-Martez-Ashante Williams
Green-Hawthorne
STEVEHULL-Tavon

You know what? That defense has a chance to be pretty good. Heck, this defense has a chance to be pretty good.

+ You know who we missed today? Zach Becker. When the offensive line is having an off day, it helps to have a blocking tight end who can clear out a DE every once in a while. We didn’t have that today, and it hurt. I spot shadowed Evan Wilson on a few plays – on one, he missed his block completely, leading to a three yard loss. He’s young, and he’ll learn, but for now, we could really use Becker.

+ Be honest (if you noticed). On the first play from scrimmage, when our defensive end (er, bandit) was lined up 20 yards from the ball on a slot receiver, you were all “whuuut?” So interesting, this defense. Missouri is 5-wide, and we stay in the base defense. Defensive end takes one slot guy, Will or Mike linebacker takes the other slot guy, and Sam linebacker is more or less a safety. And, for the most part, it worked. Do your thing, Vic Koenning. I believe in you even more after today.

+ I feel pretty good about the SIU game and the NIU game. NIU lost at Iowa State, and with the defense we showed today, we should roll in both of those games. We’ll lose to Ohio State, but if we can steal one at PSU or at MSU, we might make something of this season.

My wife is honking the horn (not really), so I gotta go. I’ll end by saying this: It’s about 2.5 hours after Illinois lost to (my) hated rival Missouri for the sixth straight time, and I feel fine. Like, I’m nowhere close to my usual depression. Dare I say, I might even feel… good? We fought. We scratched and clawed. We tossed together a rag-tag secondary and held them to less than 300 yards passing. We competed.

That’s all I can ask for. At first glance, this Zook team looks nothing like what has come to be known as a “Zook team”. I want more.

By myself, mind you.  No human being needs to be near me during an Illinois/Missouri athletic contest.  There will be sweat.  There will be pacing in the concourse.  I might start smoking.  But I’m pushing past all of that to go.

Why?  Honestly, because of Nathan Scheelhaase.  Somewhere in some hotel in downtown St. Louis at this very moment, Nathan Scheelhaase and Steve Hull are watching game film of the Missouri/Navy game last year.  Nathan’s not going to sleep.  Not for 4-5 more hours.  Nathan Scheelhaase has been waiting for this moment for over 2 years his whole life.  And for some reason, I can’t let him down by simply watching on TV.  I need to be there.  For some reason.

But I can’t predict a victory.  I just can’t.  If Walt Aikens and Supo Sanni and Terry Hawthorne were starting in the secondary, I might be tempted to.  But without them, I just can’t.  No matter what gains we may make offensively, no matter if our return game really is improved… I just don’t think we can stop Missouri’s passing attack.  We’d need 3 interceptions.  We had 5 all of last year.

So while we will see a promising young freshman at quarterback play harder than ever he thought possible, and while a freshman named Millines or Wilson will have a coming out party, and while Corey Liuget will begin to put his name on post-season accolades lists… I don’t think we’re winning.

Missouri 35, Illinois 23

As for the second prediction, this one will hurt even more.  Predicting our record this season.

Last year, I bought in.  I had us going (redacted).  Ridiculous in retrospect, right?  I should have listened to my one friend who said Juice’s accuracy (or lack thereof) would doom our passing attack.  I should have listened to my other friend who said the young linebackers weren’t ready.  I should have listened to my conscience which always says that we’re Illinois Football, and we can’t be trusted.

But I didn’t, and I bought in, and we went 3-9.

So now I’m gun shy.  I marched in lock step with Phil Steele last year – he has us 6-6 this year.  Dare I predict a bowl?  No chance.  Too young.

As I was driving to Rantoul a few weeks ago, I kinda settled on 5-7.  It just seems so Illinois-like, doesn’t it?  5-5 in 1996, heading to Wisconsin, needing a win to go to a bowl… 3-3 tie, no bowl.  5-5 in 2000, needing a win at Northwestern to go to a bowl… 61-23 loss, no bowl.  Overtime vs. eventual National Champion Ohio State in 2002, needing a win to keep bowl hopes alive… 23-16 loss, 5-7, no bowl.  5-4 in 2008, in Detroit vs. Western Michigan, needing a win to lock up a bowl… 23-17 loss, 5-7 finish, no bowl.

So 5-7 it is, right?  Decent, improved, but just not good enough – yes?

I drove home from Rantoul leaning towards 4-8.  Scheelhaase had happy feet in the scrimmage.  The secondary looked a bit confused.  And there were several plays where the QB turned right and the tailback went left.  This is a work in progress, I reminded myself.  Two new schemes will take half a season to sink in.

Watching film on the second scrimmage, I began to lean back towards 5 wins.  Scheelhaase looked calmer.  Jenkins looked shifty.  And Leshoure looked powerful.  I started to think about the soft finish to our schedule, and I let the Pizza Pizza Bowl cross my mind again.

And then BOOM Walt Aikens booted and then BOOM Supo Sanni Achilles and then BOOM Terry Hawthorne foot.  From 7 players we can count on in the secondary to 4, all in a week.  Not only did my confidence in 5 wins waver, I began to think that 4 was too heavy.  How would I feel about this rebuilt secondary against, say, Indiana if they played tomorrow?  Not very good.  And when “confidence in beating Indiana” and “not very good” are found bunched together, one might want to consider 2 wins for a prediction.

But I have settled on my prediction.  It is with great remorse that I post this.  And I swear that I swear that I swear that we will pull off the inverse in 2011.  Here it is:

4-8* **

* When Nathan Scheelhaase passes for 210 yards and runs for 135, leading the Illini to their first victory in this series, I reserve the right to start talking about 7 wins.

** When Blaine Gabbert throws for 461 yards tomorrow and we lose by 38, I reserve the right to start saying things like “where do our three wins come from?”

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That feeling that just hit your gut? Yep – hit mine too. Here’s the scenario that scares me to death:

We struggle at the beginning of 2010. The new schemes, the freshman QB, the difficult schedule – it’s ugly for 6 weeks. But in the second half of the season, things start to take shape. We start winning a few close games, the players start grasping the new schemes more and more, and we finish the season on a little roll. We look around, realize that nearly everyone is coming back, and start ramping up for what might be a nice little 2011. Excitement returns, but then someone taps us on the shoulder and reminds us of the revised Big Ten schedule, which could read…

Iowa
at Penn State
Wisconsin
at Michigan State
at Ohio State
Northwestern
at Michigan
Nebraska

Let’s break down each fear and see how we did.

Divisions

As you have certainly seen by now, here’s the teams we’ll be playing year in, year out, for eternity:

Ohio State
Penn State
Wisconsin
Indiana
Purdue

I’ll take it.

My first reaction is that I would have rather been paired with Michigan and Nebraska. Ohio State is an unstoppable force right now, and Penn State is showing no signs of slowing down. Both Michigan and Nebraska have been through multiple “wow – no bowl?” seasons recently, and I’d love to fight them for a shot at the new championship game instead of OSU and PSU.

But that’s just 2010 talking. Say these divisions were put together 10 years ago. Penn State was coming off their first losing season in 13 years, and the cries for JoePa to retire were growing strong. Ohio State was in the middle of a 6-6, 8-4, 7-5 stretch, while Michigan was 9-3 and three years removed from a National Championship. Speaking of National Championships, Nebraska had won three in the 90′s and was in the middle of a nine year run where they finished in the top-10 eight times. If these divisions were announced 10 years ago, we’d be throwing so-you’re-saying-there’s-a-chance parties.

Overall, I think the Big Ten did a fine job with the divisions. As my boy Lindsey Willhite pointed out, the two Big Ten divisions have equal .580 winning percentages since 1993.  That’s pretty well done.  Sure, we have to face Penn State and Ohio State every year, but we also get Indiana and Purdue every year.  And we get a bonus.  As “protected rivalries” go, we’re pretty lucky to have Northwestern.  Sure, they may be on a nice little two year run, but big picture, I’ll absolutely take that yearly game.  Point #20 of the 19 Point Plan – make it our goal to keep the program above Indiana, Purdue, and Northwestern.  Consistently beat these three teams every fall and schedule ourselves three wins in the non-conference… BOOM, yearly bowls.  Get to that point and then we can start thinking about upsetting Wisconsin or Penn State and winning 8 or 9 games.

2011 Schedule

This could have been so much worse.  With four winnable September non-conference home games next fall, I was totally expecting to get screwed and have to deal with the nightmare schedule listed above.  Instead, Nebraska has to.  (Seriously, replace “Nebraska” with “Minnesota”, and that’s their conference schedule for their first two years in the Big Ten. Welcome Cornhuskers!)

The first 6 games in 2011?

9-3 Arkansas State
9-10 South Dakota State
9-17 Arizona State
9-24 Western Michigan
10-1 Northwestern
10-8 @ Indiana

Yes, seriously. Are my eyes deceiving me, or do I see a punchers chance at a 6-0 start? Depending on whether Northwestern takes a step forward or a step back this fall, we might be favored in all 6 games. 6-0 OHIO STATE VS. 6-0 ILLINOIS IN CHAMPAIGN SATURDAY OCTOBER 15TH, 2011 WITH ESPN GAMEDAY IN TOWN MARK YOUR CALENDARS NOW.

*takes breath, collects self*

Let’s just get back to a bowl first. Heck, let’s just go to our first non-BCS bowl since Clinton was in office. With the full 2011 schedule, I think we can get there. Our last 5 games are at Purdue, at Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin, at Minnesota. (At Minnesota, in their new outdoor stadium, after Thanksgiving? Yikes.) That’s probably a 2-4 finish (or maybe 1-5), but hey, rattle of the first 6, and we’re talkin’ Gator Bowl, baby.

(Slow Down. Baby Steps. Breathe.)

Overall, it’s fairly comparable with our first 2011 schedule. We kept Wisconsin and Northwestern home games, held on to Indiana and Purdue road games, and swapped at Iowa, Michigan State, at Michigan, Penn State for at Minnesota, Ohio State, at Penn State, Michigan. All in all, an OK trade. I don’t like getting Ohio State back on the schedule, but at least it’s at home. And instead of at Michigan and home for Penn State we’re home for Michigan and at Penn State. Add to that a game at Minnesota instead of a game at Iowa and, well, I’ll take it. What could have been disastrous turned out to be just OK.

Whew.

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QB: Nathan Scheelhaase / Chandler Whitmer
RB: Mikel Leshoure / Jason Ford / Troy Pollard
FB: Chris Willett / Jay Prosch
TE: Evan Wilson / Justin Lattimore OR Eddie Viliunas
WR1: AJ Jenkins / Chris James
WR2: Jarred Fayson / Darius Millines
WR3: Eddie McGee / Fred Sykes
Weakside Tackle: Jeff Allen / Michael Heitz
Weakside Guard: Hugh Thornton / Anterio Jackson
Center: Graham Pocic / Tyler Sands
Strongside Guard: Randall Hunt / Jack Cornell
Strongside Tackle: Ryan Palmer / Craig Wilson

DE: Clay Nurse / Whitney Mercilus
DT: Corey Liuget / Glenn Foster
DT: Akeem Spence / Daryle Ballew
Bandit: Michael Buchanan / Nate Palmer
SLB: Nate Bussey / Ashante Williams OR Earnest Thomas
MLB: Martez Wilson / Evan Frierson
WLB: Ian Thomas / Aaron Gress
CB: Justin Green / Miami Thomas
CB: Travon Bellamy / Patrick Nixon-Youman
FS: Tavon Wilson / Joelil Thrash
SS: Trulon Henry / Fritz Rock
K: Derek Dimke / Matt Eller
P: Anthony Santella / Brad Janitz

+ Taking a wild guess that Craig Wilson will be listed as Ryan Palmer’s backup instead of Jeff Allen’s backup. If either Allen or Palmer goes down with an injury (Dear God Please No), I think Wilson is the backup. It was a camp battle between Michael Heitz, Simon Cvijanovic, and Nate Swanson for the fourth tackle spot. I’m guessing that Heitz gets the nod. And that he’s listed behind Allen.

+ I listed different backups at each OL position, but I really think it will go like this: Jack Cornell is the replacement at either guard (I think they’re more comfortable with him at strongside guard, so if he replaces Hunt, Cornell is strongside; if he replaces Thornton, Hunt goes to Thornton’s spot on the weak side and Cornell is strongside).  If either tackle comes out for a breather, it’s Craig Wilson.  And if Pocic comes out, it’s Tyler Sands (or possibly Jake Feldmeyer).

+ With the WR rotation upside down because of all the position switching, here’s my new catches chart.  The top 7, in order of receptions:

AJ Jenkins
Jarred Fayson
Eddie McGee
Darius Millines
Fred Sykes
Chris James
Ryan Lankford

+ I’m very worried about twin tight end sets with Zach Becker injured and London Davis gone. That was probably your two-deep at blocking tight end, while Wilson/Lattimore was probably your two deep at receiving tight end. They would mix and match them all (including the fullbacks), so it’s not like there’s no one to play that specific position, but I’m worried that when we go to the twin TE set, we’re heavy on the catching and light on the blocking. Walkon QB turned TE Eddie Viliunas might have found a role here. Or maybe Russell Ellington (once he returns from injury).

+ I really need to find a spot for Justin Staples.  I saw him working out at both rush end and Bandit in Rantoul.  Whitney Mercilus is probably the true backup for Clay Nurse, and Nate Palmer is probably the true backup for Michael Buchanan, but Staples might get on the field at both positions.  He still needs to add size and strength, but I think he can be a nice defensive freak for us in a few years.

+ As I said in the mini-podcast, I have no clue what we’ll do in the secondary. Justin Green starts at corner after only a week and a half playing defense? Travon Bellamy is the other corner, or is Patrick Nixon-Youman ready? How soon can STEVEHULL make an impact at safety? If the answer to that is “soon”, does Tavon Wilson go back to corner? Last question: we’ve heard for a long time that Joelil Thrash is a natural corner that we’re trying to shoehorn in at safety. So… maybe… now… switch him back?

+ Some freshman surprises I could see: Darius Millines getting the second most receptions against Mizzou. Evan Wilson getting the most receptions against Mizzou. Brandon Denmark pulling off the redshirt and finding his way on the field at Bandit. Earnest Thomas pushing Ashante Williams for playing time at backup Sam. And Fritz Rock playing sooner rather than later.

+ One last thing: Totally forgot to hand out my two Camp Rantoul awards. I know how devastated you all must feel over this – all I can offer is my deepest apology. And the award history for the 13th time:

Spring 2009 – Spring Ball Crush: Mikel LeShoure; Eye Opening Player: Jerry Brown (*snif*)
Camp Rantoul 2009 – Camp Crush: Juice Williams (*sigh*); Eye Opening Player: Joelil Thrash
Spring 2010 – Spring Ball Crush: Nathan Scheelhaase; Eye Opening Player: Justin Staples

The envelope please…

Camp Rantoul 2010 – Camp Crush: Corey Liuget; Eye Opening Player: Evan Wilson

The leaner, meaner Corey Liuget was an easy pick for Camp Crush. Eye Opening Player was a little harder. The first two days, STEVEHULL jumped out to a huge lead. He looked great in the 7 on 7 drills. But the moment that Evan Wilson caught two redzone balls in the Rantoul Scrimmage (one for a touchdown with the first string, one for first-and-goal-at-the-two with the second string on the very next play), Hull was out and Wilson was in. Sorry, STEVEHULL. We’ll always have Camp Rantoul Practice #5.

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