Yep.  A Criminal Minds opening.  That’s where I’m going.

Trust.  That’s why we lost at home to Northwestern for the first time since 1999.  That’s why we’re .500 in the Big Ten (again).  That’s why our coach is going to lose his job.  Trust.

Bruce Weber is a worrier.  I think he would tell you this to your face.  He worries about everything.  Remember last March on Selection Sunday when reports surfaced that Weber didn’t watch the show with his team, instead pacing the hallway outside because he just couldn’t bear to watch?  That’s who he is.  He’s a worrier.

I should know – I’m a worrier too.  When I’m golfing, and I look at the scorecard on the 16th, and I realize I could shoot a pretty good score, my backswing on the 17th tee barely gets to the top.  Just don’t screw this up, Robert.  It’s a great score for you if you just settle for two bogies here.  Nothing shanked, half swing, keep it in the fairway, let’s just finish this without any mistakes.  Any guess as to what usually happens?

Or this: if I were to ever coach college football, you all would hate me.  Get the ball at our 20 at the end of the first half with :58 on the clock?  I’m running it a few times and then taking a knee.  Interceptions are frightening.  Or if I was a basketball coach, I’d probably be obsessed with bleeding clock.  6 point lead with 3:00 to play?  I think if we stretch every possession and play solid defense, we can win without having to score again.

Sound familiar?

Worriers make poor coaches.  Why?  Because they can’t trust their players.  The bench will shrink and shrink because the coach is frightened that the backups will make more mistakes than the starters.  I don’t care if we’re exhausted at the end – just give me 42 points if the other team scores 41.

Sound familiar?

I believe we lost today’s game because we played only 6 players.  We didn’t play good (any?) defense in the last 8 minutes (because we were tired), we couldn’t make anything happen on offense besides a Brandon Paul three (because we were tired), and we lost at home to a Northwestern team that only played 6 players due to several injuries.

Why did we do this?  Because our coach is frightened to play his bench.  Why is he frightened to play his bench?  Because he cannot find it in himself to trust them.  He’s said in at least 5 postgame press conferences this season that he needs to go to his bench more.  I’m sure he said it again today.  But when the rubber meets the road, he just can’t do it.  Because he’s frightened that they’ll screw up.

Each year, his sideline antics increase.  Each year, he’s less calling for motion and more telling his players that they’re out of position.  Other baseline, DJ.  Screen, Joe.  No, Brandon, don’t shoot that.  Plus last year’s “MIKE DAVIS YOU PROMISED”.  Why does he do this?  Because he does not trust them.  If they’re not going to do what he asks, he’s going to instruct them during the flow of play.

Or he might even call a timeout.  7 seconds left on the shot clock and it’s not going right?  TIME OUT.  We just got a momentum-changing dunk but we’re not doing what we’re told on defense? TIME OUT. I don’t think he calls these timeouts because they need a breather – I believe he calls them because he doesn’t trust them.

My ideal coach for today’s game is the anti-me.  He would do everything the exact opposite of my natural inclination (who ARE you, George Costanza?).  Instead of worry, aggression.  Instead of repudiation, trust. Northwestern was a wounded animal, and it was time to pounce.  We needed to go 10 deep, push the tempo, and come at them in wave after wave.  Their walk-on guard hits three after three? Fine – let’s see what he has left late in the second half after we run him all over this court.

Instead, playing a team with only 6 available players, we actually had less minutes from our bench than they did.  Once more, with emphasis.  Northwestern only got 20 minutes from their bench, all from the same player, and we actually used our bench less.  Why?  Because Bruce Weber doesn’t trust Myke Henry, or Tyler Griffey, or Nnanna Egwu.  In his immediate, worry-filled mind, the mistakes they would make outweigh any benefit we would receive from resting the starters.  And I doubt the thought of one of those players actually having a hot hand and improving our chances at victory even enters his mind.  All he sees are the mistakes that might lead to a loss.

And that’s the saddest thing about all of this.  That’s what has me so upset tonight.  Does he not understand that placing trust in his players might actually improve our results?  Does he see that the constant benchings and doghouses and timeouts and “MOVE DJ” only communicates to his players that he doesn’t believe in them?  I’m all for Frank Martin screaming and Patrick Chambers staring if that’s what it takes to instruct, but in the end, the players must feel emboldened.  When I watch our games, I don’t see players that behave as if that’s true.

So here we are again.  Beat Ohio State but lose to Penn State.  Beat Michigan State but lose to Northwestern (Northwestern!) at home.  No double digit wins in 2 months.  Playing each game to do just enough to finish one point ahead of the opponent.  These players deserve better.

And in about a month, I think they’ll get it.

And we’ve been through the whole thing about how I grew up in the St. Louis area (on the Illinois side), and how I live on the Missouri side now, and how Missouri fans are among the most vacuous people on the face of the earth, and how I had to sit in the gym locker room this afternoon and listen to two guys discuss how Mizzou is a lock for the national title, and with our 9 game Braggin’ Rights winning streak long gone and our .500-in-the-Big-10-the-last-5-years thing holding me down, there’s really nothing I can say to rebut them anymore?  We’ve established all of that, right?

Good.  Because I just watched Missouri beat Kansas on TV.  And Robert is gettin’ upset.  Where’s MY Gameday in Champaign?  Why don’t I have a top-5 team playing on the feature game on ESPN on a Saturday night?  If any team from the Mid-Mississippi Valley area of the United States of America is going to be successful, it should be the University of Illinois.  Not Missouri.  Illinois.  Me.  Mine.

In this aggravated state, I have come up with a list of demands for tomorrow.  I might regret posting this tomorrow, but at this moment, the fact that we’re looking up – way up – at Missouri is crushing my soul.  So here they are.

1) We need to destroy the Purple People tomorrow.  Destroy.  Demolish.  I want to beat them so bad that Pat Fitzgerald feels it.

The last time we won a game by double digits was Coppin State on December 11th.  Tim Beckman had been the head football coach for only a few days, and the so-27-seconds-ago commercials were still actually clever.  We shouldn’t go that long between double digit victories Ever.

So I need a demolition tomorrow.  I need a 22 point win.

2) I need to get up off my couch and pump my fist.  I don’t care if it’s Meyers Leonard on the oop, or Brandon Paul posterizing someone with a facial dunk, or even a dagger three from DJ where I get up off my couch and kind of crawl towards the television until erupting when the ball goes through – I need cold water to the face.

I just need to feel again.  Watching Missouri fans – they of 3,500 person crowds 7 years ago for non-conference games – rocking and rolling in a sold-out Paige Arena when Denmon made that go-ahead three made my soul fall out.  I need a SportsCenter Top-10 kind of play to make it all better.

3) I need us to go deep into the bench.  I need a Myke Henry three and a Nnanna Egwu put-back and a Tracy Abrams dish on the fast break.  We have one of the most athletic rosters in the Big Ten and Northwestern has the least.  I need us to come at them in waves and never let up.  I don’t care if we shoot poorly – attack them and never let up and we win by 22.

And I need some Tyler Griffey.  Every time he’s in the game, he seems to get an important offensive rebound or hit a surprising three.  Yet he’s buried deep in Weber’s doghouse and didn’t even play against Michigan State.  Through the UNLV game he was averaging around 8 points per game and he had 14 rebounds against SIUE – and now he doesn’t even play?  We have all these weapons and different looks we can throw at people, yet we seem content to play it close to the vest and try to win by 3.

Most of all, I just need hope.  Nearly all of these players return next year, and with Brandon Paul figuring it out over the last 5 games, we have a go-to guy who can take us far. I want to go far.  I want to return to Illinois Basketball.  I want a sold-out Assembly Hall to erupt on a Saturday night when DJ Richardson hits a go-ahead three late, not Marcus Denmon.

These are my demands.  If they are not met by 4:00 pm tomorrow, I will have no choice but to eat zero chicken wings at my Super Bowl party.  Don’t make this hunger strike a reality, Brandon Paul.  Hear my plea, Mattoscalco.  I need us to destroy the nerds, and then I need to eat some wings.  Make it so.

(Yo Gabba Weber. Yep. Entering Year Four, and I just ran with Yo Gabba Weber.)

Here’s how these posts work.  Because I’m OCD for the Illini, I watch all of the recruits on tape throughout the year.   In the Signing Day Breakdown, I give you my opinion on each player.  And I rank them in categories: Instant Impact Players, Great Gets, Recruits I’m Excited About But Can’t Really Tell You Why, Recruits I’m Not That Excited About But Can’t Really Tell You Why, and Recruits I Just Don’t Know Much About.  Since this is the 4th of these, let’s see how I did with the 2009 class:

Instant Impact Players: Terry Hawthorne
Great Gets: Nathan Scheelhaase, Lendell Buckner, Justin Green, Michael Buchanan
Excited About, Can’t Tell You Why: Walt Aikens, Eric Watts, Steve Hull, Hugh Thornton, Bud Golden
Not Excited About, Can’t Tell You Why: Leon Hill, Justin Lattimore, Greg Fuller, Jake Feldmeyer
Don’t Know Enough To Make A Judgement Call: Darryl Lee, Aaron Gress, Andrew Carter, Tommie Hopkins, Tim Kynard, Joelil Thrash, and Akeem Spence.

I was doing so well until that very last name, wasn’t I?

Before I get in to this class, three general thoughts:

1) This is probably our lowest ranked class in about 10 years.  And I really don’t fault Tim Beckman one bit.  This class was ranked last in the Big Ten when he took over, and he’s done the best he can in the last 6 weeks to scrape together a full recruiting class.  As I said a few weeks ago, he gets a Get Out Of Jail Free card with this one.

2) This class proves that recruiting is about relationships.  Of the 10 players that he brought in for his first class at Illinois, 6 of them were guys he was actively recruiting at Toledo.  Knowing his limitations with a 6 week timeline, I’m guessing he targeted guys from his Toledo list who he felt could play in the Big Ten.  That’s all good and fine for this class, but next year, he has to develop those relationships with what looks like the best in-state class in years.

3) Hello Cleveland.  Rock and roll.  Beckman grew up in Berea, Ohio (suburb of Cleveland), and 5 of the 10 recruits he added to this class are within a 30 minute drive of Berea.  Remember how Zook had a high concentration of players from Jacksonville, Florida (Disch) and Washington DC (Locksley)?  It looks like the main area where Beckman will try to get plugged in is Cleveland.

OK – to the list.

INSTANT IMPACT PLAYERS

TaJarvis Fuller (3-star on Rivals, 3-star on ESPN, 3-star on Scout)
Safety/Linebacker
Fort Meyers, FL (Dunbar)
Best offers: Georgia Tech, Louisville, Wisconsin, UCLA

The biggest reason I think TaJarvis will be an instant impact player: he’s already in school.  He’s one of two recruits in this class (Daniel Rhodes is the other) to enroll early, so he’ll get a head start on learning Tim Banks’ defense in the spring.  Another reason: if he can play strong safety, he might play right away.

Watching his film, he probably projects as a linebacker type.  He was a Zook recruit, and I believe Vic Koenning had designs on making him a Busseybacker.  There’s been a lot of talk that Beckman’s defenses have always had a “star” linebacker (more or less a Busseybacker – half safety, half linebacker), so it’s possible that Fuller could end up there.  But part of me still wants him as a big-hittin’ Kevin Mitchell safety.

ALE Projection: These projections will be hard this year, mostly because we don’t know the specifics of the schemes yet.  So I’ll go out on a limb and say that Banks’ defense has room for a linebackery safety, and Fuller gets some minutes backing up Supo Sanni.

Here’s Fuller when he signed with Illinois:

GREAT GETS

TJ Neal (3-star on Rivals, 3-star on ESPN, 3-star on Scout)
Linebacker
McKeesport, PA
Best Offers: Auburn, Florida, Nebraska, USC

Of all the players I reviewed, Neal probably looks the best on tape.  You know how some linebackers just seem to toy with the offensive lineman getting to the second level that are trying to block them?  How they kind of keep them at arms length until they’re ready to shed them and make the tackle?  That’s what I love about Neal.  He shed’s his block and wraps up – looks like he’s had good coaching in high school.

But I’m putting him down here and not in “Instant Impact Players” because we’re just fine at linebacker next year.  Jonathan Brown in the middle, Houston Bates (and maybe Henry Dickinson) one one side, Ashante Williams (or maybe Earnest Thomas or Zeph Grimes) on the other.  So I think Neal is coming in and trying to fight Ralph Cooper for backup middle linebacker.

ALE Projection: No redshirt, special teams player, a few spot minutes at middle linebacker.  But in the future, I think he’s Jonathan Brown’s replacement.

Dami Ayoola (3-star on Rivals, 3-star on ESPN, 3-star on Scout)
Running Back
Ft. Lauderdale, FL (St. Thomas Aquinas)
Best Offers: Notre Dame, Auburn, Wisconsin, West Virginia

I know you’re wondering – it’s pronounced “Dommy Uh-YOO-luh”.  And he comes from the top high school program in the country (St. Thomas Aquinas in Fort Lauderdale).  I thought we’d lose him to Notre Dame, and I was certain that he would decommit – he verballed to Illinois only 2 days before Zook was fired – but in the end, even though it appeared he might go to Boston College, he stuck with Illinois.

Ayoola is an interesting little tailback.  He’s short (5′-9″ or so), but he’s not a scatback.  He’s more of a power runner, with thick legs and a powerful drive.  The thing I like best about him is his change of direction.  He has that quick hop to the left or right to avoid a tackler that Pierre Thomas has.  It will be interesting to see how we use him.  Next year, Donovonn Young is the power back and Josh Ferguson is the scatback, but Ayoola will probably get carries as well.  He’s 5′-9″, but I think we use him more like Young than Ferguson.

ALE Projection: We need three tailbacks, so one of the freshmen will play.  I’m guessing Ayoola is the guy.  I think he’ll be 4th on the team in rushing next fall, behind Scheelhaase, Young, and Ferguson.

V’Angelo Bentley (3-star on Rivals, 3-star on Scout, not rated by ESPN)
Cornerback
Cleveland, OH (Glenville)
Best Offers: Iowa, Pittsburgh, Kansas, Air Force

He’s not ranked as high as some of these other guys, and he doesn’t have the offers that the players above have, but I might be more excited about Bentley than any other player in this class.  We need cornerbacks so very badly, and I think this kid can be a great one.  Go watch some of his highlights from this video to see what I’m talking about.  It’s 14 minutes long, so just skip to the 2:10 mark and watch all of his highlights from the game that Glenville played at Ohio State’s stadium.  Punt return for a touchdown, fumble return for a touchdown, and several great runs (he was a tailback in high school but projects as a corner in college).

I’m a huge fan of high school tailbacks at cornerback (see: Green, Justin).  And with Green and Hawthorne set to graduate next year, we’ll have openings for starters at both cornerback spots.  I’m guessing Bentley will hold down one of those spots in 2013.

ALE Projection: I don’t think he redshirts.  I think he’s our 3rd or 4th corner next year, and a starter in 2013. That’s probably putting too much on a kid who only had 4 or 5 BCS offers, but I really like his film.  And his high school.  And his hat.

Teko Powell (3-star on Rivals, 3-star on ESPN, 2-star on Scout)
Defensive Tackle
Miami, FL (Norland)
Best Offers: Florida, Florida State, LSU, Wisconsin

I see a theme developing.  It’s called “recruit guys from high school powerhouse programs”.  Ayoola is from St. Thomas Aquinas.  Bentley from Cleveland Glenville.  And Powell is from Miami Norland.  These are high schools that produce multiple FBS athletes every single year, so I’m glad that Beckman’s staff is targeting the factories.

Powell fits a big need – we’re pretty short on defensive tackles once Glenn Foster graduates and Akeem Spence possibly leaves for the NFL (something I think he does after next season).  We have Jake Howe and Austin Teitsma, and I think redshirt freshman Chris O’Connor might play some DT, but that’s it.  So getting a good DT from a good program with a great offer list is a big win.

ALE Projection: I still think he redshirts, though.  Next year, we’ll have Spence and Foster starting with Howe and Teitsma backing them up – I think Powell redshirts and adds some weight to his current +/- 280 pounds (ESPN lists him at 250 pounds).

RECRUITS I’M EXCITED ABOUT BUT CAN’T REALLY TELL YOU WHY

LaKeith Walls (3-star on Rivals, 2-star on ESPN, 3-star on Scout)
Running Back / Athlete
Cleveland, OH (Rhodes)
Best Offers: Iowa, Louisville, NC State, Pittsburgh

All Cleveland all the time.  That’s a theme you’ll see in this class and hopefully the next eight.  Our head coach is more plugged-in in Cleveland than any other city, so that’s where we’ll recruit the hardest.

Walls is an interesting prospect.  He doesn’t go to one of the football factory schools in Cleveland, so he’s a little off the radar, but I feel like we found a steal.  He’s maybe too tall for a running back but has many long runs on his film.  And he runs kind of weird (upright with shoulders moving), but he’s deceptively fast.  So my hope is that he finds his way to safety, learns some technique, and then uses that speed to blow up receivers over the middle.

And, of course, by “blow up” I simply mean “gently help to the ground within the rules of football”.

ALE Projection: Tried at tailback, sitting behind Young, Ferguson, and Ayoola, switches to safety as a redshirt freshman, blows people up starting in 2014.

Vontrell Williams (3-star on Rivals, 3-star on ESPN, 3-star on Scout)
Defensive Tackle
Chicago, IL (Mt. Carmel)
Best Offers: Michigan State, Kansas, Indiana

All Chicago all the time.  If we’re going to get plugged in with Cleveland Glenville and Miami Norland, let’s get in good with Mt. Carmel as well.  And if we’re going to get in good with Mt. Carmel, why not bring in an athletic defensive tackle who can move a little bit?

I really like Williams on film, and I have no idea why he only had 3 other BCS offers.  He’s big, strong, and surprisingly mobile.  I think he challenges for playing time in 2013.

ALE Projection: Redshirt for strength, he and Powell push Teitsma and Howe for playing time in 2013.

Joseph Spencer (3-star on Rivals, 3-star on ESPN, 3-star on Scout)
Center/Guard
Mason, OH
Best Offers: Cincinnati, NC State, South Florida

I really like this guy.  I like what some of the talent evaluators at Rivals had to say.  I like that he finishes blocks on film.  I like that he projects as a center.  I like that he’s an offensive lineman from Ohio, because for some reason, in my head, offensive linemen from Ohio are 31% better than offensive linemen from any other state.

ALE Projection: Redshirt for strength (duh), and then he’s immediately in the competition with Jake Feldmeyer and Tony Durkin for the starting center position after Graham Pocic graduates next year.

Devin Church (3-star on Rivals, 2-star on ESPN, 3-star on Scout)
Running Back
Bloomfield, MI (Brother Rice)
Best Offers: Boston College, NIU, Toledo

Flipped him from NIU, so he’s automatically going to be as diamond-in-the-rough as Jon Asamoah, another player we flipped from the Huskies.  And I like him on film – great vision.  If you’ve read this blog for long, you know I’m a sucker for great vision.  What made Mikel Leshoure great in my book was his ability to see a hole before it was there.  And run full speed at that spot until it appeared.  And then make one extra cut once he got through that hole.  I see some of that in Church’s film.  Does he have the physical skills to make it work?  We’ll see.

I’m also working on some Rick Reilly-ish quips for Church in a few years.  Stuff like “CALL ME SEVENTH-DAY ADVENTIST BECAUSE I LIKE CHURCH ON SATURDAYS”.  It’s gonna be epic(ally bad).

ALE Projection: I’m 50-50 on Church redshirting.  If Ayoola can be our #3 tailback, then yes, I think Church redshirts.  But there’s a chance he plays.  There’s also a chance that all three tailbacks work out and we move Church to corner (like Justin Green).

RECRUITS I’M NOT THAT EXCITED ABOUT BUT CAN’T REALLY TELL YOU WHY

Ryan Frain (2-star on Rivals, 2-star on ESPN, 3-star on Scout)
Kicker
Indianapolis, IN (Scecina)
Best Offers: Georgia Tech

I always have to begin players listed in this category with a giant NO DISRESPECT disclaimer. I’m simply calling it like I see it. And this one I don’t get.

Yes, we lost Derek Dimke. But at kicker, we have Nick Immekus. And Taylor Zalewski. And Baron Von Mieghem. And Patrick Dunn. Out of those four we can’t find a solid kicker? To the point where we had to use a scholarship to get one?  I don’t get it.

(This means Frain will win the job and kick a 59 yarder to beat Northwestern)

(Just kidding. No chance we’d need a last-second field goal to beat Fitzee)

BJ Bello (2-star on Rivals, 2-star on Scout, not evaluated by ESPN)
Safety
New Lenox, IL (Lincoln Way West)
Best Offers: Toledo, Western Michigan, Bowling Green, Ball State

We do need safeties.  But I’m not sure if we need safeties who we flipped from Western Michigan.  Sorry, BJ, nothing personal, but the word “Western” followed by the word “Michigan” makes me flinch.  So while I’m glad you chose the orange and blue over that awful school from Kalamazoo, I’m still gonna keep one eye on you, because there’s a 17% chance you’re a Western Michigan spy.

Mason Monheim (3-star on Rivals, 2-star on ESPN, 3-star on Scout)
Linebacker
Orrville, OH
Best Offers: the entire MAC conference (seriously – 11 offers, 10 from the MAC and one from Illinois)

We need linebackers?  I didn’t know we needed linebackers.  After TJ Neal and Tajarvis Fuller, I kinda thought we didn’t need any more linebackers.  With BadNewsBrown and RBOBK (Houston Bates) and Dickinson and Cooper and Zeph Grimes and Earnest Thomas, I thought we were pretty set at linebacker.  Add Neal and Fuller to that mix, and I’m surprised we also added Monheim and…

Mike Svetina (3-star on Rivals, 2-star on ESPN, 2-star on Scout)
Linebacker
Cleveland, OH (St. Ignatius)
Best Offers: Syracuse, Air Force, Toledo

We need linebackers?  Gosh, I’m being unfair here.  Monheim and Svetina could be J Leman and Brit Miller, and here I am claiming there’s no room at the inn.

Wait – Svetina is in the 6′-2″/6′-3″ range, right?  Any chance we can bulk him up and move him to defensive end?  We can? GOOD.  I’m on board.  Welcome Mike Svetina.

RECRUITS I JUST DON’T KNOW THAT MUCH ABOUT

Robbie Bain (3-star on Rivals, 2-star on ESPN, 3-star on Scout)
Guard/Center
Bolingbrook, IL
Best Offers: Colorado State, Western Michigan, Bowling Green

I get to use this once per year, so I’m choosing to use it here: Offensive linemen are a crapshoot.  2-star guys go to the NFL, 4-star guys never find the field.  So with many offensive linemen recruits, I don’t pay much attention.  Redshirt, get stronger, understudy, let’s see what you got in 2014.

Daniel Rhodes (2-star on Rivals, unknown, unknown)
Tight End
Charlotte, NC (Independence)
Best Offers: can’t remember

Totally forgot about Rhodes. He was one of the guys that was on our committed list last year right up until signing day, and then he and Hunter Wells went elsewhere (Wells eventually ended up at Miami, FL, and Rhodes disappeared). Well, as of today, he’s back. And I can’t remember anything about him besides thinking “maybe he’ll grow into a left tackle” last year.

Taylor Barton (3-star on Rivals, 2-star on ESPN, 2-star on Scout)
Safety
Orlando, FL (Lake Highland)
Best Offers: Syracuse, Temple, Ball State

We need safeties.  He’s a safety.  That’s all I got.  His offer list isn’t strong, but he’s a defensive back from Florida, so that makes me happy.  Given the numbers issues, he might find the field sooner rather than later.

Jevaris Little (3-star on Rivals, 2-star on Scout, not evaluated by ESPN)
Cornerback
St. Petersburg, FL (Lakewood)
Best Offers: Indiana, Kansas, Toledo

This one came down to Illinois and Indiana, with Illinois coming out on top.  The good news: he’s a defensive back from Florida.  The bad news: this one came down to Illinois or Indiana.

Justin Hardee (2-star on Rivals, 2-star on Scout, not evaluated by ESPN)
Wide Receiver
Cleveland, OH (Glenville)
Best Offers: Toledo, Bowling Green, Ohio

There’s that Cleveland word again.  How many Browns fans can one team recruit?  Hardee is a teammate of Bentley and projects as a wide receiver.  But given his size and athleticism, I want him at safety.

Jason Robertson (2-star on Rivals, 3-star on ESPN, 3-star on Scout)
Wide Receiver
Frankfort, IL (Lincoln Way East)
Best Offers: Western Michigan (his only other listed offer)

Every year, there’s a guy in the class that I should pay more attention to but don’t. For whatever reason. It was Akeem Spence in 2009 – I was all fired up about the late flip of Justin Green from Ohio State to Illinois that I didn’t pay attention to a defensive tackle from Florida who committed late. This year, it’s Robertson. Scout and ESPN both list him as one of our top-5 recruits. Why would I more or less ignore an in-state receiver listed highly like that?

I promise to do better next year. And I’ll go watch more of his film later and maybe come back and edit this.

FINAL THOUGHTS

It is now time to DO. WORK.  As of right… NOW the grace period for Tim Beckman’s recruiting is over.  He found some nice pieces in the last 6 weeks, fought off some other suitors for guys like Ayoola and Powell, and filled some needs last minute with guys like Bentley.

But now – as in, right now – it is time to DO. WORK.  The 2013 class in-state keeps looking better by the day.  Guys like Ty Issac and Logan Tuley Tillman already look like 5-star possibilities.  Aaron Bailey MUST be our quarterback of the future.  We need top-end talent and soon.  At the high point of his recruiting, I believe Ron Zook had 19 four-star players on his roster at the beginning of 2009.  After the final whistle next November in Evanston, we’ll be down to one (Nathan Scheelhaase) for 2013.  One.

You can’t win 8 games in the Big Ten with one blue chipper.  You just can’t.  So it it imperative that Tim Beckman bring in talent talent talent in 2013.

OK, I can’t close with that.  The label for the 2012 class can’t be “hope we get some blue chippers in 2013″.  Guys like Teko Powell, TJ Neal, and Dami Ayoola could have named their school, and they picked Illinois.  Welcome, gentlemen.  Time for you to be the class that builds the foundation for the new era of Illini Football.  Where every other player is a linebacker.

We scored 42 points… and won.  Has to be our lowest winning total since the set shot.

Michigan State had 18 rebounds on their end of the floor.  We had 22 rebounds on their end of the floor.

We shot 32.6% from the field (!!), 17.6% from three (!!!), 52.9% from the free throw line (!!!!), and we won.

Brandon Paul missed the front end of three one-and-one’s, including two in the last 30 seconds, giving Michigan State three shots at the win… and they missed them all.

Basically, the only way we win that game is if Michigan State – #10 Michigan State – shoots like, say, 24% and turns the ball over 15 times with only 4 assists.

4 assists!

The only equivalent I can come up with would be some baseball game where you get only 3 hits and score on a passed ball and then a wild throw to third, but you win 1-0 because the other team left 16 runners on base.  That’s how this feels.  We didn’t deserve to win, but thank you, better team, for missing at least 6 point blank layups and having your best player cuss at the ref, sit with three fouls, and THEN injure his knee when he could have rescued his team in the last 5 minutes.

But you know what baseball people say after a game like that.  Seriously, you know what baseball people say after a game like that.  Say it with me.  A. Win. Is. A. Win.

Which makes me start to look at a best case scenario for this team the rest of the season.  Which makes me lament the Minnesota loss.  Here’s one for you: when Hollins drives for Minnesota, if Leonard would have laid down on the ground and let him make an uncontested layup… we’d be 6-3 and tied with Michigan State and Michigan a game out of first place in the B1G.

(!!!!!!)

And don’t even make me revisit the Penn State game.  Ok, I need to stop doing that.  Pull out those close games, and we probably lose this one.  We just play down-to-the-wire game after down-to-the-wire game, and it all evens out in the end.  Beat Michigan at home, and we’ll lose at Nebraska.  Win at Wisconsin, and we’ll lose at home to Northwestern.

I guess that’s where we’ll have to settle with this team.  If we’re a 7 or a 10 seed in the tournament, and we win our first game, and we’re watching to 2/15 game to see who we’ll play, I’ll be indifferent about our opponent.  If the 2-seed wins, I’ll feel confident that we can hang with them the entire game.  If the 15 seed wins, I’ll feel confident that we’ll play down to their level and it will be a one point game with 1:35 to go.  In 2012, we haven’t played a single game that wasn’t decided by 5 points or less.  I guess that’s just the way the rest of the season will go.

42 points.  And we won.  What?

As this site has grown, I’ve received more and more emails.  Some people just saying hi, others wanting to talk football schemes and basketball recruiting.  And I feel like nearly every email I’ve responded to began with “sorry it took me so long to write you back”.  I suck.

So I’ve decided to not suck anymore.  If you’ve emailed me in the past few months, expect a reply tonight.  2012: the year I stop sucking.

My excuse has always been that I receive so many notifications on this email address that your emails get lost in the shuffle.  I get notifications on people registering to read the RSS feed, for people registering to comment, and I even have it set up to track new Twitter followers.  Because I’m sometimes getting 25 emails per day, and because I don’t always check that email daily, you’re emails have been difficult to separate from the pile.

But then I came up with this brilliant idea – TWO email addresses.  I know, right?  BRILLIANT.  One for communication with all of you (I really do enjoy reading your emails) and one for blog stuff.  So I’ll keep CriticalMass@alioneye.com, but I’ve added Robert@alioneye.com for communication with you. Got a tip?  Want to know how some player looked in the spring game?  Email me.  I love tapping my fingers on a keyboard and writing words about Illini sports, but not all of them need to be posted here.  Some can be simply be in emails, where your thoughts shape my own.

I’ve also updated a few pages.  I changed the “About” page to tell you a little about myself – I get emails about that, too, so I thought a page on the blog with a mini-bio was appropriate.  And I’ve added a “Contact” page.  I really do mean this statement:  if you want to email me about anything, please do.  My thoughts about Illini spots are shaped by conversations with friends, message board flame-wars, and, yes, emails from all of you.  I hope to keep that dialogue going.  Or, well, at least I hope to keep up my end of that dialogue.

Thanks to all of you who have reached out in the past.  Here’s to more great conversations in the future.

OK, laying down is a dumb idea. Just go guard the three point line. In fact, I’m surprised we collapsed the defense so much. I know it’s habit, but I’d hope we would be trained to, in that situation, simply guard the three point line. If they drive, they drive, but don’t let them shoot a three. And if they do drive, don’t let them kick for a three. Just let the guy go.

But we didn’t. And Meyers fouled him. And Minnesota won.

And yes, Meyers did foul him. If you don’t believe me, check out the screenshot my friend Sean grabbed. Yep, that’s a foul. Yep, we lost. Yep, we’re 4-4 in the B1G.

After the Ohio State game, fresh off my BP3 high, I said that I thought we could pull off 4-1 in the next 5 games and head to Indiana 8-2. Yep, 0-3 so far, with the toughest of the 5 games coming up on Tuesday.

So now it’s back to bubble math. I’m so very tired of bubble math. I’m so very tired of pondering whether 8-10 in the conference might get us in to one of the First Four games. For the most part, from 1982 to 2006 – with the exception of the probation years after the Bruce Pearl sanctions – we haven’t had to do much bubble math. Take out 1991 (when we were ineligible for the tournament) and 1992 to 1996 (when the recruiting sanctions dragged down our talent level and we had to rebuild), we really only ever did bubble math… wait – did we ever do bubble math?

1982/83 through 1989/90 we were never once on the bubble – always solidly in the tournament. Then we were banned from the tourney, then restricted to 2 scholarships per year and no off-campus recruiting, and we finally cleared the “Sanctions Years” in 1996/97. From 1996/97 through 2005/06 we were never on the bubble. We missed the tournament one year (1998/99) but the other 9 years we were solidly in the tournament.

Now? 4 bubble watches the last 6 years, with one team that had no chance at the tournament and one team that was solidly in. Let’s put all of that in a little chart.

1982/83 through 1989/90: 8 years, 8 NCAA tournaments, never on the bubble.
1990/91: Banned from the NCAA tournament
1991/92 through 1995/96: 5 years, 3 NCAA tournaments, twice on the bubble.
1996/97 through 2005/06: 10 years, 9 NCAA tournaments, never on the bubble.
2006/07 through 2011/12: 6 years, 3 (possibly 4) NCAA tournaments, 4 times on the bubble.

Why do I bring all of this up? Because, as an Illini basketball fan, I believe I’m entitled to. Look, I’m a huge Illini football fan. But being a fan of that program comes with many restrictions. Ohio State loses their coach amidst a scandal and attracts Urban Freaking Meyer. Why? Because they’re Ohio State football – they’ve earned the ability to do that. Meyer has 6 weeks to put together a recruiting class and he attracts 4-stars and 5-stars while we struggle to get anyone to visit. Why? Because they’re Ohio State and we’re Illinois – that’s just how it works. We know our place in the world, and it would take dozens of winning seasons before we could begin to behave the way that they do. We’d have to earn it.

It’s just the opposite in basketball. I firmly believe that in the 24 years listed above (1982/83 through 2005/06), we were one of the top 10 programs in all of college basketball. 24 years, 20 NCAA Tournaments, and 2 Final Fours. And 1998/99 was the only year that we missed the tournament where it wasn’t directly linked to recruiting sanctions.

And this is all in a state which produces the second highest number of NBA players and is top-10 in attendance nearly every single year. This is (was?) a top-12 coaching job. We had earned the right to change coaches and immediately recruit 5-stars. We were in the Ohio State seat, with advantages that Iowa and Minnesota could only dream about. We were Illinois Basketball.

Now? I’m not sure what we are, except bubble bound again. And yes, that makes me angry. Because I’m entitled. Because I can be. The location of this university and the size this fanbase allow for advantages that not many schools can claim. And for the 5th consecutive year, we’re not capitalizing on those advantages. That’s important to me, and I hope it’s important to Mike Thomas. With the talent on this roster, this thing could be turned around quickly. Here’s hoping that happens soon.

With signing day coming up next Wednesday, I thought I might go through the three-deep again to see if our current class is lining up with our future needs.  I’m not gonna lie – Terry Hawthorne, Michael Buchanan, and Akeem Spence flirting with the NFL but returning to school makes this three-deep much more attractive.

I have to make a few guesses with this depth chart.  We don’t really know the schemes that Gonzales/Beatty and Banks will run, so I really don’t know if I should put down four wide receivers or two tight ends.  So I’ll try to cover all positions on offense (except for fullback), and I’ll return us to a basic 4-3 defense with no bandits or Busseybackers.  I’m also taking out the weak/strong offensive line and going back to having a left tackle and a right tackle.

QB: Nathan Scheelhaase (JR) / Reilly O’Toole (SO) / Chase Haslett (rs-FR)
RB: Donovonn Young (SO) / Josh Ferguson (rs-FR) / Ean Days (SO)
TE: Evan Wilson (JR) / Jon Davis (SO) / Justin Lattimore (JR) / Matt LaCosse (SO)
LT: Simon Cvijanovic (rs-SO) / Patrick Flavin (rs-FR) / Chris Boles (rs-FR)
LG: Hugh Thornton (SR) / Tyler Sands (SR) / Ted Karras (rs-FR)
C: Graham Pocic (SR) / Jake Feldmeyer (JR) / Tony Durkin (rs-FR)
RG: Alex Hill (rs-SO) / Shawn Afryl (rs-SO) / Kevin Griffin (rs-SO walkon)
RT: Michael Heitz (rs-SO) / Corey Lewis (SR) / Scott McDowell (rs-FR)
WR1: Darius Millines (JR) / Jeremy Whitlow (rs-FR) / Kenny Knight (rs-FR)
WR2: Spencer Harris (JR) / Jordan Frysinger (rs-FR) / Fritz Rock (rs-SO)
WR3: Ryan Lankford (JR) / Miles Osei (JR) / Jake Kumerow (SO-walkon)

DE: Michael Buchanan (SR) / Justin Staples (SR) / Brandon Denmark (JR)
DT: Glenn Foster (SR) / Jake Howe (rs-SO) / Chris O’Connor (rs-FR)
DT: Akeem Spence (JR) / Austin Teitsma (rs-SO) / John Valentine (rs-FR walkon)
DE: Tim Kynard (JR) / DJ Woods (rs-SO) / Kenny Nelson (rs-FR)
WLB: Houston Bates (rs-SO) / Henry Dickinson (SO) / Beau Sullivan (JR walkon)
MLB: Jonathan Brown (JR) / Ralph Cooper (SO) / Alex Porter (SO walkon)
SLB: Ashante Williams (SR) / Earnest Thomas (rs-SO) / Zephaniah Grimes (rs-FR)
CB: Terry Hawthorne (SR) / Eaton Spence (rs-FR) / Kaeman Mitchell (JR walkon)
FS: Steve Hull (JR) / Ben Mathis (JR-walkon) / Austin Abner (rs-FR walkon)
SS: Supo Sanni (SR) / Patrick Nixon-Youman (SR) / Nick North (rs-FR)
CB: Justin Green (SR) / Valdon Cooper (SO) / Jack Ramsey (SR)

K: Taylor Zalewski (rs-FR) / Nick Immekus (rs-SO) / Brennen Van Mieghem (rs-FR)
P: Justin DuVernois (SO) / Brad Janitz (rs-SO) / Garrett Stroup (rs-FR)

So next year looks very defense-y.  2013 looks very offense-y.  And 2014 looks very scary.

With Hawthorne, Buchanan, and Spence back, Tim Banks has a lot to work with next year.  The loss of Mercilus, Thomas, Wilson, and Henry will be large – I have no idea who will be the nickel corner next year (Jack Ramsey?) – but there are some legitimate stars in Jonathan Brown, Terry Hawthorne, Michael Buchanan, and Akeem Spence.  Get a few big senior years from Justin Green and Glenn Foster and maybe this defense won’t take that large of a step back.

But in 2013, from this view, yikes.  Gone are Buchanan, Foster, Williams, Hawthorne, Sanni, Green, and PNY, with a good chance Akeem Spence declares early and also the possibility of Jonathan Brown leaves. Good luck, Tim Banks.

The good news is, the offense should be solid in 2013.  Next year we’ll likely only have 2 seniors contributing – Hugh Thornton and Graham Pocic.  Every other position – even going 4 deep at tailback and 6 deep at receiver – there are no seniors.  What we see next year is basically what we’ll see in 2013.

But in 2014, from this view, yikes.  We’ll lose almost all of our passing game (Scheelhaase and possibly his top 4 targets) and maybe a few more offensive linemen.  Reilly O’Toole will have to develop a rapport with a whole new crop of receivers.

Now, at this point I realize the ridiculousness of projecting the 2014 team.  60% of those players aren’t even on the roster yet.  But that’s why I’m doing this.  I’m trying to find our needs in a few years.  Football recruiting isn’t about next year – it’s about recruiting for 2-3 seasons from now.  What are our needs then?  In order:

1. Secondary.  After next season, we’ll have 4 scholarship players in the secondary: Steve Hull, Valdon Cooper, Eaton Spence, and Nick North.  We should have 8 or 9.
2. Defensive Line.  Defensive Tackle more than Defensive End, but we need both.
3. Running Back.  No seniors, no juniors.  At tailback right now we have Donovonn Young, Josh Ferguson, and converted safety Ean Days.  We should have 5 or 6 on the roster.
4. Offensive Tackle.  We have a lot of guard-and-center types, but I only see 4 true tackles.  I’d like to see two more.

So how does the current class break down?

QB – 0
RB – 2
OL – 3 (2 OG/C, 1 OT)
TE – 0
WR – 3
DE – 0
DT – 2
LB – 2
CB – 1
S – 2
K – 1

Combine those two lists, and here’s where it leaves us: with issues defending the pass.  In a few years we’ll be woefully short at defensive end, cornerback, and safety. We’ve spent a lot of time recruiting bandits (undersized defensive ends that can also line up on a slot receiver like Brandon Denmark and Darrius Caldwell), and now we’ll be asking them to play more of a traditional defensive end role.

On offense, we’ve addressed the tailback situation (although we’ll need two more tailbacks next year), but I still feel we’re short at offensive tackle.  And what happens at receiver after the Millines/Lankford/Harris trio graduates?  One more thing – we’ll need a QB in next year’s class who can come in and understudy for a few years.

So in the next 5 days, I’d sure love to close on a few defensive linemen (I’m looking at you, Vincent Valentine) and maybe another cornerback (hi there, Sean Draper).  And next year, a QB, a few offensive tackles, a stud receiver, a monster defensive end, two athletic corners, and a ballhawking safety are desired, nay, required.  It’s only the most important recruiting class of your career – no pressure, Coach Beckman.

Hopefully, this is the end to Richmond’s downward spiral.  In 2011, he left the team for a few days in January, left school to declare for the NBA in April, (went undrafted in June), was arrested in August, and tested positive for marijuana while out on bond in October.  A kid who looked like a lock for NBA stardom as a high school freshman now must work his way in through the D-league or Europe.

I really don’t want to turn this into a “stay in school, kids!” post.  While it’s true he declared for the draft too early, it’s clear that Jereme Richmond’s issues extend beyond basketball.  I really feel for the kid.  There’s so much pressure on a child that gets named a top-20 player nationally as a high school freshman.  You’re 14 or 15 years old and everyone has already decided that if you’re not in the NBA by age 20, you will have failed.  Add to that the anger issues that led to his dismissal from his high school team (and a rumored fight with a teammate last year), and it’s a structure that’s set up to fail.  I hope he gets the help he needs as he tries to make a run at his dream through the back door.

But I’m still left to wonder – what if he had stayed?  What if he never declared for the NBA and stayed in school? What if he had worked through his issues? What if the structure of college basketball had helped him turn things around last summer?  Is he the piece that’s missing?

I have a friend who certainly thinks so.  He’s my most Weber-loving friend, and all season he’s been pointing to the loss of Richmond as the reason for certain losses.  He staunchly maintains that with Richmond in the starting lineup, we would have beaten Missouri, Penn State, and now Wisconsin.  Bring Richmond back, put him at the 4, and in his eyes, we’re 18-2.

I tend to dismiss a lot of what this friend says of late – he honestly can’t see anything but an “unfair campaign to run Bruce Weber out of town”.  He sees the world through “Weber can’t catch a break” glasses and refuses to even acknowledge that Weber’s seat is the slightest bit warm.  There’s always a reason (or excuse) why we’re underperforming, and I tend to ignore his emails more than I respond.

But today, I considered his Excuse Du Jour:  If Richmond stays, we’re 18-2 and headed for a top-4 seed.  Is my friend… correct?

On one hand, his case certainly has merit.  This is a McDonald’s All American kid with a year of experience who would help in some of the areas we lack, namely offensive rebounding.  Give Jereme a few put-backs every game, give us a legitimate frontcourt option next to Meyers – remember how well Jereme understood the art of the up-fake? – and this team would have a serious second option down low.  Add to that Jereme’s passing ability and ballhandling skills (he could play the point in a pinch), and it’s hard to see us losing at Penn State with him in the lineup.

On the other hand, it really isn’t hard to see us losing to Penn State with him in the lineup.  Would Jereme Richmond really help when we’re needlessly passing the ball around the perimeter waiting for something to open up that’s just not there?  I’m really not sure if personnel is the issue at this point.  Myke Henry can play a pretty solid flashing 3/4 against a zone, but he doesn’t get to play because he struggles on defense.  Would having a talented 4 who could play on the wing or down low really help us when we’re folding up shop while Purdue goes on a massive run?  Many of the issues in our losses have been mental, and I’m not sure Jereme Richmond’s instability would really help in that regard.

So which is it?  I vote no.  As in no – we’d probably still be 15-5 with Jereme Richmond in the lineup.  The main reason: I spent 90% of the breakdown above talking about offense.  Our coaches spend 90% of the time in practice coaching defense.  And with Jereme’s mental lapses on D last year, I’m not sure he’d prevent the easy looks and offensive putbacks that killed us in games like Purdue and UNLV.  It would be nice to have another (athletic) option on D, but I’m not sure one player could fix our faults.

What’s that?  Our coaches spending “90% of the time in practice coaching defense” sounds preposterous? Hey, those aren’t my words.  Here’s what beat writer extraordinaire (and I mean that – he rocks) Paul Klee had to say in this IlliniHQ podcast:

The mentality of this staff is defensive minded, 85-90 per–whatever you want to put it–that’s the percentage of time they spend on defense, and that’s what their belief is. They want to muddy it up.

There.  There’s my answer.  My answer is no – Jereme Richmond would not improve this team right now (at least not to the point of 18-2).  He would simply be one more player in practice going through defensive drills over and over.  And while having an athletic wing forward would probably improve our defense, and the offensive putbacks he would provide might improve our offense, I believe the struggles of Brandon Paul and Meyers Leonard would be his struggles, too.  Sometimes, talent just can’t overcome a hesitant offense, a short bench, and a team that isn’t meshing with the coach.  We’re 6 times more talented than Penn State – I’m not sure pushing us to 7 times more talented would be enough to pull out a victory.

So there’s my answer, Michael, you ubiquitous strawman of Weber defense.  I think our problems extend beyond talent.  We have 7 RSCI top-100 players on this roster – I’m not sure an 8th would really make much of a difference.

And sorry for burying the lede.  Here – I’ll close with it.

85-90% OF PRACTICE TIME ON DEFENSE ZOMGWTFBBQ

So, random football and basketball stuff:

Black….Cat..Black….Cat

It’s no secret that I’m a huge Terry Hawthorne fan. In fact, the very first words of the very first (legitimate) post here at ALE compared Terry Hawthorne to Deron Williams. No, really.

I get a Deron Williams vibe from Hawthorne. Part of a tandem of top recruits at his school, all the way until the end of his senior season the other guy was hyped more, and near the end articles like “you know, Terry Hawthorne might be the best player in the entire Midwest” start popping up.

That summer, before he played a single snap, I suggested insisted that he should return every kick and punt for the next 4 years. And, using his high school nickname, I even said the following:

When Terry Hawthorne drops back to return a kickoff against ISU in 53 days, I want the scoreboard to show the intro to the Janet Jackson “Black Cat” video as the crowd begins to chant “Black……..Cat..Black……..Cat”. Then cue the wildcat growl, then the music, and watch the stands come alive as the guitar riff wails. Hawthorne plays some air guitar in the south endzone, pyrotechnics blast from the ends of the goal posts, the horseshoe erupts, and as the kick sails in the air towards Black Cat, you’ll see me dancing in the aisle of section 122 like the guy in the polka-dot shirt at the 1:23 mark.

WHY HAS THIS NOT HAPPENED YET?? Well, I guess I can tell you why it hasn’t happened yet: An injury as a freshman prevented him from finding the field until October (with no kick returns). Another injury as a sophomore gave Jack Ramsey the punt return job. And this year, well, this year Ron Zook insisted on giving the punt return job to Ryan Lankford. WORTH NOTING HERE: We had 39 punt return yards in the 12 regular season games, and then Hawthorne had 31 yards in the Hunger Bowl.

This is not to disparage Ryan Lankford. I’m certain he’ll do a fine job in 2013. But this fall, it’s Black Cat time. (By the way, the first time I interviewed Terry Hawthorne I asked him if he liked the nickname – he loves it. Another aside – in an interview I was unable to post right after the KFHB I told Jonathan Brown that I had started the #badnewsbrown hashtag – he also loves it. He then told me has very high goals for himself next year. And then he gave me a hug. Cool story, Hansel.)

Where was I? Yes – Black Cat and Bad News Brown. That’s your 2012 Illini defense. I hereby set the expectations for both players at First Team All Big Ten. And I want Black Cat returning every single punt and kickoff. With music. And pyrotechnics.

It Was So Wisconsiny Of Them

It’s amazing how quickly I can hate a Wisconsin player these days. I mean, it took me 93 seconds to hate Ben Brust. And I already have all of this built-up Gasser hate from last year, which, combined with my Bruesewitz hate, makes my head hurt. And if Jordan Taylor wasn’t so awesome and ice cold assassin-y, I’d hate him too.

So to lose a game like that yesterday, well, that wasn’t good for my blood pressure. It’s almost impossible for me to watch the entire Wisconsin bench erupt after a made three pointer in Assembly Hall. It’s like all the kids you couldn’t stand in high school, all gathered together mocking you. I wanted to throw something at the screen.

Less than a week ago, I suggested that we could go 4-1 through the @PSU, Wisconsin, @Minnesota, MSU, NW portion of our schedule and find ourselves still in first place when we head to Indiana. Now that we’ve lost the first two of those, I’m seeing 2-3. And after that, we’re hoping for .500 the rest of the way (we have to go to Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio State in the final 8 games). Something tells me Jerry Palm’s 2-seed projection was a bit of a reach.

And that’s all I have to say about that.

Get Out Of ALE Free Card

Here at A Lion Eye Inc, from time to time, we hand out free passes. And Tim Beckman will receive one for the 2012 Illini recruiting class.

Let’s be honest here – it’s probably going to be ranked as the worst class in the Big Ten. It was ranked second to last when Beckman took over, and the only 4-star recruit (linebacker Keith Brown) has since decommitted and verballed to Louisville.

With limited time (and limited scholarships), Beckman and his new staff are behind the 8-ball trying to put this class together. It’s gone about as good as you could hope in the last few weeks, gaining commitments from linebacker TJ Neal (who once listed Nebraska as his favorite and also had offers from Auburn and Florida) and defensive tackle Teko Powell (who had offers from Florida and Wisconsin and Florida State and others). But kids like that are few and far between in January, so it appears that Beckman is concentrating on kids he was recruiting to Toledo that he feels could play in the Big Ten. This includes linebacker Mason Monheim (he was down to Toledo and Illinois I believe, so Toledo’s coach taking the Illinois job made his decision a no-brainer), wide receiver Justin Hardee, running back (defensive back?) Devin Church, and cornerback Javaris Little (who visited Toledo the weekend after Beckman left for Illinois, visited Illinois this weekend, and picked the Illini yesterday).

But in the recruiting battle, we have to do better than “guys Beckman was recruiting to Toledo”. This is the Big Ten, and the way the upper echelon is recruiting, we’ll be in big trouble if we don’t step it up.

The good news: I think Beckman steps it up. Given the number of talented in-state players next year and the staff Beckman put together, I think we can pull in a top-25 class in 2013. If not, we’ll be in big trouble, talent-wise. So 2013 needs to be a monster class.

2012 does too, but Beckman gets a free pass. Just this once.

We all want to win, right?  We’re somewhere between the 12th and 14th most successful college basketball program in history, depending on which metric you use.  And we consider ourselves a basketball school, so I think we can all agree that we expect Sweet 16′s on a regular basis.  We’re top-5 nationally in fertile recruiting grounds, and I don’t think we’ve dropped out of the top 12 in attendance figures in a long time, so the elements are all there for a successful basketball program.

That’s the baseline – we all want to win.  So why do some people get angry when you suggest we make a coaching change?

Nine years is a long time.  In that time, Bruce Weber took us to the Final Four.  Hey, awesome.  Had Luther’s three fallen, I think we win.  Too bad it didn’t fall.

Now, we’re in a funk, which is probably a 5-6 year funk, and we can’t seem to get out of it.  We just lost our third straight game at Penn State.  We beat a top-5 team and then stub our toe against the worst team in the league.  We just can’t escape the middle of the pack of the Big Ten.

And the product on the court is messed up, too.  We had 2 fast break points tonight (against the worst team in the league).  We drew up a final play and couldn’t get a shot to hit the rim for what seems like the 9th consecutive time.  I was thinking in the second half – when was the last time I exclaimed “oh nice pass” when someone found an open Joseph Bertrand or Tyler Griffey under the hoop for two.  Remember the Frankie/Serge/Arch teams?  It feels like I said “oh nice pass” about 3 times per game back then – partly because Frankie could create, and partly because that team just flowed and we got multiple easy looks every game.  We don’t even do one tenth of that any more.

So why not try something different?  Why not fire the coach and get someone else in here?  Why does me saying that cause half of you to get angry?  Why do we need sides?

To me, it’s simple.  It’s not working.  Something’s not right.  Yes, we beat Ohio State and Jerry Palm made us a 2 seed.  But when you look at this team – when you really investigate it – something is missing.  Communication between the coach and the players just isn’t clicking.  This roster just doesn’t seem to understand the offense like Dee and Deron did.  Opposing coaches know how to attack it, and unless we’re shooting well, we don’t seem to know how to adjust.  This is a problem that has been going on for 5 1/2 years.  A time frame where we’re .500 in the Big Ten and have only 1 NCAA tournament victory.

So why not try something different?  When some communications company hits a funk, they change CEO’s.  No hard feelings, thanks for your 6 years, here’s your buyout, let’s try something different. When a school system is underperforming, you get a new superintendent.  New ideas, fresh concepts, let’s keep pushing to make this thing great.  I don’t understand why we don’t just do that.  Even if we go to the Sweet 16 this year.

I know that most people on Team Weber will read this and say “you’re not playing the middle here – this is just another angle on hating Weber.”  But I don’t hate Weber.  That’s the thing.  I’m genuinely pleased that he took us to the Championship Game and has now turned around the recruiting that led to our funk.  I’ve met him before – seems like a nice enough guy.  His daughters seem well-raised.  He cleans the pool for his wife.  He can even be funny here and there and entertain us.

But he loses too many basketball games.  He can’t beat Penn State.  He’s taken a solid program and made it worse.  He struggles to draw up plays when we have the ball with the shot clock off.  He doesn’t seem to communicate and click with Brandon and DJ the way he did with Deron and Dee.

I guess what I’m saying is that we beat Ohio State because of Brandon Paul, not Bruce Weber.  And we lost to Penn State because of Bruce Weber, not Brandon Paul.  The occasional hot night from BP3 will beat Ohio State, and the occasional late game heroics from Sam Maniscalco will rescue us from an embarrassing loss to Illinois State, but for the most part, this basketball team has underperformed 5 of the last 6 years.  And we’ve won 1 tourney game in that span.  And we haven’t been to the Sweet 16 since 2005.  The machine is broken, so we should fire the coach.  It’s that simple.

If I was Mike Thomas, I’d make a change this year, even if we made the Sweet 16.  The wins that would get us there can’t mask the issues of the last 5+ years.  At Illinois, if you consistently lose to Penn State, you get fired.  The end.  This team – this roster – could be really good next year if they were playing in a system they enjoyed.  They don’t appear to enjoy, nor do they excel in, the current system. We struggle to execute, it takes a hot shooter for us to win, and we can’t score on the break nor find an open man under the basket for an easy layup.  It’s just not working, and this is a school with enough resources that it MUST work.

So why not try something different?