Yep.  A Criminal Minds opening.  That’s where I’m going.

Trust.  That’s why we lost at home to Northwestern for the first time since 1999.  That’s why we’re .500 in the Big Ten (again).  That’s why our coach is going to lose his job.  Trust.

Bruce Weber is a worrier.  I think he would tell you this to your face.  He worries about everything.  Remember last March on Selection Sunday when reports surfaced that Weber didn’t watch the show with his team, instead pacing the hallway outside because he just couldn’t bear to watch?  That’s who he is.  He’s a worrier.

I should know – I’m a worrier too.  When I’m golfing, and I look at the scorecard on the 16th, and I realize I could shoot a pretty good score, my backswing on the 17th tee barely gets to the top.  Just don’t screw this up, Robert.  It’s a great score for you if you just settle for two bogies here.  Nothing shanked, half swing, keep it in the fairway, let’s just finish this without any mistakes.  Any guess as to what usually happens?

Or this: if I were to ever coach college football, you all would hate me.  Get the ball at our 20 at the end of the first half with :58 on the clock?  I’m running it a few times and then taking a knee.  Interceptions are frightening.  Or if I was a basketball coach, I’d probably be obsessed with bleeding clock.  6 point lead with 3:00 to play?  I think if we stretch every possession and play solid defense, we can win without having to score again.

Sound familiar?

Worriers make poor coaches.  Why?  Because they can’t trust their players.  The bench will shrink and shrink because the coach is frightened that the backups will make more mistakes than the starters.  I don’t care if we’re exhausted at the end – just give me 42 points if the other team scores 41.

Sound familiar?

I believe we lost today’s game because we played only 6 players.  We didn’t play good (any?) defense in the last 8 minutes (because we were tired), we couldn’t make anything happen on offense besides a Brandon Paul three (because we were tired), and we lost at home to a Northwestern team that only played 6 players due to several injuries.

Why did we do this?  Because our coach is frightened to play his bench.  Why is he frightened to play his bench?  Because he cannot find it in himself to trust them.  He’s said in at least 5 postgame press conferences this season that he needs to go to his bench more.  I’m sure he said it again today.  But when the rubber meets the road, he just can’t do it.  Because he’s frightened that they’ll screw up.

Each year, his sideline antics increase.  Each year, he’s less calling for motion and more telling his players that they’re out of position.  Other baseline, DJ.  Screen, Joe.  No, Brandon, don’t shoot that.  Plus last year’s “MIKE DAVIS YOU PROMISED”.  Why does he do this?  Because he does not trust them.  If they’re not going to do what he asks, he’s going to instruct them during the flow of play.

Or he might even call a timeout.  7 seconds left on the shot clock and it’s not going right?  TIME OUT.  We just got a momentum-changing dunk but we’re not doing what we’re told on defense? TIME OUT. I don’t think he calls these timeouts because they need a breather – I believe he calls them because he doesn’t trust them.

My ideal coach for today’s game is the anti-me.  He would do everything the exact opposite of my natural inclination (who ARE you, George Costanza?).  Instead of worry, aggression.  Instead of repudiation, trust. Northwestern was a wounded animal, and it was time to pounce.  We needed to go 10 deep, push the tempo, and come at them in wave after wave.  Their walk-on guard hits three after three? Fine – let’s see what he has left late in the second half after we run him all over this court.

Instead, playing a team with only 6 available players, we actually had less minutes from our bench than they did.  Once more, with emphasis.  Northwestern only got 20 minutes from their bench, all from the same player, and we actually used our bench less.  Why?  Because Bruce Weber doesn’t trust Myke Henry, or Tyler Griffey, or Nnanna Egwu.  In his immediate, worry-filled mind, the mistakes they would make outweigh any benefit we would receive from resting the starters.  And I doubt the thought of one of those players actually having a hot hand and improving our chances at victory even enters his mind.  All he sees are the mistakes that might lead to a loss.

And that’s the saddest thing about all of this.  That’s what has me so upset tonight.  Does he not understand that placing trust in his players might actually improve our results?  Does he see that the constant benchings and doghouses and timeouts and “MOVE DJ” only communicates to his players that he doesn’t believe in them?  I’m all for Frank Martin screaming and Patrick Chambers staring if that’s what it takes to instruct, but in the end, the players must feel emboldened.  When I watch our games, I don’t see players that behave as if that’s true.

So here we are again.  Beat Ohio State but lose to Penn State.  Beat Michigan State but lose to Northwestern (Northwestern!) at home.  No double digit wins in 2 months.  Playing each game to do just enough to finish one point ahead of the opponent.  These players deserve better.

And in about a month, I think they’ll get it.

And we’ve been through the whole thing about how I grew up in the St. Louis area (on the Illinois side), and how I live on the Missouri side now, and how Missouri fans are among the most vacuous people on the face of the earth, and how I had to sit in the gym locker room this afternoon and listen to two guys discuss how Mizzou is a lock for the national title, and with our 9 game Braggin’ Rights winning streak long gone and our .500-in-the-Big-10-the-last-5-years thing holding me down, there’s really nothing I can say to rebut them anymore?  We’ve established all of that, right?

Good.  Because I just watched Missouri beat Kansas on TV.  And Robert is gettin’ upset.  Where’s MY Gameday in Champaign?  Why don’t I have a top-5 team playing on the feature game on ESPN on a Saturday night?  If any team from the Mid-Mississippi Valley area of the United States of America is going to be successful, it should be the University of Illinois.  Not Missouri.  Illinois.  Me.  Mine.

In this aggravated state, I have come up with a list of demands for tomorrow.  I might regret posting this tomorrow, but at this moment, the fact that we’re looking up – way up – at Missouri is crushing my soul.  So here they are.

1) We need to destroy the Purple People tomorrow.  Destroy.  Demolish.  I want to beat them so bad that Pat Fitzgerald feels it.

The last time we won a game by double digits was Coppin State on December 11th.  Tim Beckman had been the head football coach for only a few days, and the so-27-seconds-ago commercials were still actually clever.  We shouldn’t go that long between double digit victories Ever.

So I need a demolition tomorrow.  I need a 22 point win.

2) I need to get up off my couch and pump my fist.  I don’t care if it’s Meyers Leonard on the oop, or Brandon Paul posterizing someone with a facial dunk, or even a dagger three from DJ where I get up off my couch and kind of crawl towards the television until erupting when the ball goes through – I need cold water to the face.

I just need to feel again.  Watching Missouri fans – they of 3,500 person crowds 7 years ago for non-conference games – rocking and rolling in a sold-out Paige Arena when Denmon made that go-ahead three made my soul fall out.  I need a SportsCenter Top-10 kind of play to make it all better.

3) I need us to go deep into the bench.  I need a Myke Henry three and a Nnanna Egwu put-back and a Tracy Abrams dish on the fast break.  We have one of the most athletic rosters in the Big Ten and Northwestern has the least.  I need us to come at them in waves and never let up.  I don’t care if we shoot poorly – attack them and never let up and we win by 22.

And I need some Tyler Griffey.  Every time he’s in the game, he seems to get an important offensive rebound or hit a surprising three.  Yet he’s buried deep in Weber’s doghouse and didn’t even play against Michigan State.  Through the UNLV game he was averaging around 8 points per game and he had 14 rebounds against SIUE – and now he doesn’t even play?  We have all these weapons and different looks we can throw at people, yet we seem content to play it close to the vest and try to win by 3.

Most of all, I just need hope.  Nearly all of these players return next year, and with Brandon Paul figuring it out over the last 5 games, we have a go-to guy who can take us far. I want to go far.  I want to return to Illinois Basketball.  I want a sold-out Assembly Hall to erupt on a Saturday night when DJ Richardson hits a go-ahead three late, not Marcus Denmon.

These are my demands.  If they are not met by 4:00 pm tomorrow, I will have no choice but to eat zero chicken wings at my Super Bowl party.  Don’t make this hunger strike a reality, Brandon Paul.  Hear my plea, Mattoscalco.  I need us to destroy the nerds, and then I need to eat some wings.  Make it so.

We scored 42 points… and won.  Has to be our lowest winning total since the set shot.

Michigan State had 18 rebounds on their end of the floor.  We had 22 rebounds on their end of the floor.

We shot 32.6% from the field (!!), 17.6% from three (!!!), 52.9% from the free throw line (!!!!), and we won.

Brandon Paul missed the front end of three one-and-one’s, including two in the last 30 seconds, giving Michigan State three shots at the win… and they missed them all.

Basically, the only way we win that game is if Michigan State – #10 Michigan State – shoots like, say, 24% and turns the ball over 15 times with only 4 assists.

4 assists!

The only equivalent I can come up with would be some baseball game where you get only 3 hits and score on a passed ball and then a wild throw to third, but you win 1-0 because the other team left 16 runners on base.  That’s how this feels.  We didn’t deserve to win, but thank you, better team, for missing at least 6 point blank layups and having your best player cuss at the ref, sit with three fouls, and THEN injure his knee when he could have rescued his team in the last 5 minutes.

But you know what baseball people say after a game like that.  Seriously, you know what baseball people say after a game like that.  Say it with me.  A. Win. Is. A. Win.

Which makes me start to look at a best case scenario for this team the rest of the season.  Which makes me lament the Minnesota loss.  Here’s one for you: when Hollins drives for Minnesota, if Leonard would have laid down on the ground and let him make an uncontested layup… we’d be 6-3 and tied with Michigan State and Michigan a game out of first place in the B1G.

(!!!!!!)

And don’t even make me revisit the Penn State game.  Ok, I need to stop doing that.  Pull out those close games, and we probably lose this one.  We just play down-to-the-wire game after down-to-the-wire game, and it all evens out in the end.  Beat Michigan at home, and we’ll lose at Nebraska.  Win at Wisconsin, and we’ll lose at home to Northwestern.

I guess that’s where we’ll have to settle with this team.  If we’re a 7 or a 10 seed in the tournament, and we win our first game, and we’re watching to 2/15 game to see who we’ll play, I’ll be indifferent about our opponent.  If the 2-seed wins, I’ll feel confident that we can hang with them the entire game.  If the 15 seed wins, I’ll feel confident that we’ll play down to their level and it will be a one point game with 1:35 to go.  In 2012, we haven’t played a single game that wasn’t decided by 5 points or less.  I guess that’s just the way the rest of the season will go.

42 points.  And we won.  What?

OK, laying down is a dumb idea. Just go guard the three point line. In fact, I’m surprised we collapsed the defense so much. I know it’s habit, but I’d hope we would be trained to, in that situation, simply guard the three point line. If they drive, they drive, but don’t let them shoot a three. And if they do drive, don’t let them kick for a three. Just let the guy go.

But we didn’t. And Meyers fouled him. And Minnesota won.

And yes, Meyers did foul him. If you don’t believe me, check out the screenshot my friend Sean grabbed. Yep, that’s a foul. Yep, we lost. Yep, we’re 4-4 in the B1G.

After the Ohio State game, fresh off my BP3 high, I said that I thought we could pull off 4-1 in the next 5 games and head to Indiana 8-2. Yep, 0-3 so far, with the toughest of the 5 games coming up on Tuesday.

So now it’s back to bubble math. I’m so very tired of bubble math. I’m so very tired of pondering whether 8-10 in the conference might get us in to one of the First Four games. For the most part, from 1982 to 2006 – with the exception of the probation years after the Bruce Pearl sanctions – we haven’t had to do much bubble math. Take out 1991 (when we were ineligible for the tournament) and 1992 to 1996 (when the recruiting sanctions dragged down our talent level and we had to rebuild), we really only ever did bubble math… wait – did we ever do bubble math?

1982/83 through 1989/90 we were never once on the bubble – always solidly in the tournament. Then we were banned from the tourney, then restricted to 2 scholarships per year and no off-campus recruiting, and we finally cleared the “Sanctions Years” in 1996/97. From 1996/97 through 2005/06 we were never on the bubble. We missed the tournament one year (1998/99) but the other 9 years we were solidly in the tournament.

Now? 4 bubble watches the last 6 years, with one team that had no chance at the tournament and one team that was solidly in. Let’s put all of that in a little chart.

1982/83 through 1989/90: 8 years, 8 NCAA tournaments, never on the bubble.
1990/91: Banned from the NCAA tournament
1991/92 through 1995/96: 5 years, 3 NCAA tournaments, twice on the bubble.
1996/97 through 2005/06: 10 years, 9 NCAA tournaments, never on the bubble.
2006/07 through 2011/12: 6 years, 3 (possibly 4) NCAA tournaments, 4 times on the bubble.

Why do I bring all of this up? Because, as an Illini basketball fan, I believe I’m entitled to. Look, I’m a huge Illini football fan. But being a fan of that program comes with many restrictions. Ohio State loses their coach amidst a scandal and attracts Urban Freaking Meyer. Why? Because they’re Ohio State football – they’ve earned the ability to do that. Meyer has 6 weeks to put together a recruiting class and he attracts 4-stars and 5-stars while we struggle to get anyone to visit. Why? Because they’re Ohio State and we’re Illinois – that’s just how it works. We know our place in the world, and it would take dozens of winning seasons before we could begin to behave the way that they do. We’d have to earn it.

It’s just the opposite in basketball. I firmly believe that in the 24 years listed above (1982/83 through 2005/06), we were one of the top 10 programs in all of college basketball. 24 years, 20 NCAA Tournaments, and 2 Final Fours. And 1998/99 was the only year that we missed the tournament where it wasn’t directly linked to recruiting sanctions.

And this is all in a state which produces the second highest number of NBA players and is top-10 in attendance nearly every single year. This is (was?) a top-12 coaching job. We had earned the right to change coaches and immediately recruit 5-stars. We were in the Ohio State seat, with advantages that Iowa and Minnesota could only dream about. We were Illinois Basketball.

Now? I’m not sure what we are, except bubble bound again. And yes, that makes me angry. Because I’m entitled. Because I can be. The location of this university and the size this fanbase allow for advantages that not many schools can claim. And for the 5th consecutive year, we’re not capitalizing on those advantages. That’s important to me, and I hope it’s important to Mike Thomas. With the talent on this roster, this thing could be turned around quickly. Here’s hoping that happens soon.

Hopefully, this is the end to Richmond’s downward spiral.  In 2011, he left the team for a few days in January, left school to declare for the NBA in April, (went undrafted in June), was arrested in August, and tested positive for marijuana while out on bond in October.  A kid who looked like a lock for NBA stardom as a high school freshman now must work his way in through the D-league or Europe.

I really don’t want to turn this into a “stay in school, kids!” post.  While it’s true he declared for the draft too early, it’s clear that Jereme Richmond’s issues extend beyond basketball.  I really feel for the kid.  There’s so much pressure on a child that gets named a top-20 player nationally as a high school freshman.  You’re 14 or 15 years old and everyone has already decided that if you’re not in the NBA by age 20, you will have failed.  Add to that the anger issues that led to his dismissal from his high school team (and a rumored fight with a teammate last year), and it’s a structure that’s set up to fail.  I hope he gets the help he needs as he tries to make a run at his dream through the back door.

But I’m still left to wonder – what if he had stayed?  What if he never declared for the NBA and stayed in school? What if he had worked through his issues? What if the structure of college basketball had helped him turn things around last summer?  Is he the piece that’s missing?

I have a friend who certainly thinks so.  He’s my most Weber-loving friend, and all season he’s been pointing to the loss of Richmond as the reason for certain losses.  He staunchly maintains that with Richmond in the starting lineup, we would have beaten Missouri, Penn State, and now Wisconsin.  Bring Richmond back, put him at the 4, and in his eyes, we’re 18-2.

I tend to dismiss a lot of what this friend says of late – he honestly can’t see anything but an “unfair campaign to run Bruce Weber out of town”.  He sees the world through “Weber can’t catch a break” glasses and refuses to even acknowledge that Weber’s seat is the slightest bit warm.  There’s always a reason (or excuse) why we’re underperforming, and I tend to ignore his emails more than I respond.

But today, I considered his Excuse Du Jour:  If Richmond stays, we’re 18-2 and headed for a top-4 seed.  Is my friend… correct?

On one hand, his case certainly has merit.  This is a McDonald’s All American kid with a year of experience who would help in some of the areas we lack, namely offensive rebounding.  Give Jereme a few put-backs every game, give us a legitimate frontcourt option next to Meyers – remember how well Jereme understood the art of the up-fake? – and this team would have a serious second option down low.  Add to that Jereme’s passing ability and ballhandling skills (he could play the point in a pinch), and it’s hard to see us losing at Penn State with him in the lineup.

On the other hand, it really isn’t hard to see us losing to Penn State with him in the lineup.  Would Jereme Richmond really help when we’re needlessly passing the ball around the perimeter waiting for something to open up that’s just not there?  I’m really not sure if personnel is the issue at this point.  Myke Henry can play a pretty solid flashing 3/4 against a zone, but he doesn’t get to play because he struggles on defense.  Would having a talented 4 who could play on the wing or down low really help us when we’re folding up shop while Purdue goes on a massive run?  Many of the issues in our losses have been mental, and I’m not sure Jereme Richmond’s instability would really help in that regard.

So which is it?  I vote no.  As in no – we’d probably still be 15-5 with Jereme Richmond in the lineup.  The main reason: I spent 90% of the breakdown above talking about offense.  Our coaches spend 90% of the time in practice coaching defense.  And with Jereme’s mental lapses on D last year, I’m not sure he’d prevent the easy looks and offensive putbacks that killed us in games like Purdue and UNLV.  It would be nice to have another (athletic) option on D, but I’m not sure one player could fix our faults.

What’s that?  Our coaches spending “90% of the time in practice coaching defense” sounds preposterous? Hey, those aren’t my words.  Here’s what beat writer extraordinaire (and I mean that – he rocks) Paul Klee had to say in this IlliniHQ podcast:

The mentality of this staff is defensive minded, 85-90 per–whatever you want to put it–that’s the percentage of time they spend on defense, and that’s what their belief is. They want to muddy it up.

There.  There’s my answer.  My answer is no – Jereme Richmond would not improve this team right now (at least not to the point of 18-2).  He would simply be one more player in practice going through defensive drills over and over.  And while having an athletic wing forward would probably improve our defense, and the offensive putbacks he would provide might improve our offense, I believe the struggles of Brandon Paul and Meyers Leonard would be his struggles, too.  Sometimes, talent just can’t overcome a hesitant offense, a short bench, and a team that isn’t meshing with the coach.  We’re 6 times more talented than Penn State – I’m not sure pushing us to 7 times more talented would be enough to pull out a victory.

So there’s my answer, Michael, you ubiquitous strawman of Weber defense.  I think our problems extend beyond talent.  We have 7 RSCI top-100 players on this roster – I’m not sure an 8th would really make much of a difference.

And sorry for burying the lede.  Here – I’ll close with it.

85-90% OF PRACTICE TIME ON DEFENSE ZOMGWTFBBQ

So, random football and basketball stuff:

Black….Cat..Black….Cat

It’s no secret that I’m a huge Terry Hawthorne fan. In fact, the very first words of the very first (legitimate) post here at ALE compared Terry Hawthorne to Deron Williams. No, really.

I get a Deron Williams vibe from Hawthorne. Part of a tandem of top recruits at his school, all the way until the end of his senior season the other guy was hyped more, and near the end articles like “you know, Terry Hawthorne might be the best player in the entire Midwest” start popping up.

That summer, before he played a single snap, I suggested insisted that he should return every kick and punt for the next 4 years. And, using his high school nickname, I even said the following:

When Terry Hawthorne drops back to return a kickoff against ISU in 53 days, I want the scoreboard to show the intro to the Janet Jackson “Black Cat” video as the crowd begins to chant “Black……..Cat..Black……..Cat”. Then cue the wildcat growl, then the music, and watch the stands come alive as the guitar riff wails. Hawthorne plays some air guitar in the south endzone, pyrotechnics blast from the ends of the goal posts, the horseshoe erupts, and as the kick sails in the air towards Black Cat, you’ll see me dancing in the aisle of section 122 like the guy in the polka-dot shirt at the 1:23 mark.

WHY HAS THIS NOT HAPPENED YET?? Well, I guess I can tell you why it hasn’t happened yet: An injury as a freshman prevented him from finding the field until October (with no kick returns). Another injury as a sophomore gave Jack Ramsey the punt return job. And this year, well, this year Ron Zook insisted on giving the punt return job to Ryan Lankford. WORTH NOTING HERE: We had 39 punt return yards in the 12 regular season games, and then Hawthorne had 31 yards in the Hunger Bowl.

This is not to disparage Ryan Lankford. I’m certain he’ll do a fine job in 2013. But this fall, it’s Black Cat time. (By the way, the first time I interviewed Terry Hawthorne I asked him if he liked the nickname – he loves it. Another aside – in an interview I was unable to post right after the KFHB I told Jonathan Brown that I had started the #badnewsbrown hashtag – he also loves it. He then told me has very high goals for himself next year. And then he gave me a hug. Cool story, Hansel.)

Where was I? Yes – Black Cat and Bad News Brown. That’s your 2012 Illini defense. I hereby set the expectations for both players at First Team All Big Ten. And I want Black Cat returning every single punt and kickoff. With music. And pyrotechnics.

It Was So Wisconsiny Of Them

It’s amazing how quickly I can hate a Wisconsin player these days. I mean, it took me 93 seconds to hate Ben Brust. And I already have all of this built-up Gasser hate from last year, which, combined with my Bruesewitz hate, makes my head hurt. And if Jordan Taylor wasn’t so awesome and ice cold assassin-y, I’d hate him too.

So to lose a game like that yesterday, well, that wasn’t good for my blood pressure. It’s almost impossible for me to watch the entire Wisconsin bench erupt after a made three pointer in Assembly Hall. It’s like all the kids you couldn’t stand in high school, all gathered together mocking you. I wanted to throw something at the screen.

Less than a week ago, I suggested that we could go 4-1 through the @PSU, Wisconsin, @Minnesota, MSU, NW portion of our schedule and find ourselves still in first place when we head to Indiana. Now that we’ve lost the first two of those, I’m seeing 2-3. And after that, we’re hoping for .500 the rest of the way (we have to go to Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio State in the final 8 games). Something tells me Jerry Palm’s 2-seed projection was a bit of a reach.

And that’s all I have to say about that.

Get Out Of ALE Free Card

Here at A Lion Eye Inc, from time to time, we hand out free passes. And Tim Beckman will receive one for the 2012 Illini recruiting class.

Let’s be honest here – it’s probably going to be ranked as the worst class in the Big Ten. It was ranked second to last when Beckman took over, and the only 4-star recruit (linebacker Keith Brown) has since decommitted and verballed to Louisville.

With limited time (and limited scholarships), Beckman and his new staff are behind the 8-ball trying to put this class together. It’s gone about as good as you could hope in the last few weeks, gaining commitments from linebacker TJ Neal (who once listed Nebraska as his favorite and also had offers from Auburn and Florida) and defensive tackle Teko Powell (who had offers from Florida and Wisconsin and Florida State and others). But kids like that are few and far between in January, so it appears that Beckman is concentrating on kids he was recruiting to Toledo that he feels could play in the Big Ten. This includes linebacker Mason Monheim (he was down to Toledo and Illinois I believe, so Toledo’s coach taking the Illinois job made his decision a no-brainer), wide receiver Justin Hardee, running back (defensive back?) Devin Church, and cornerback Javaris Little (who visited Toledo the weekend after Beckman left for Illinois, visited Illinois this weekend, and picked the Illini yesterday).

But in the recruiting battle, we have to do better than “guys Beckman was recruiting to Toledo”. This is the Big Ten, and the way the upper echelon is recruiting, we’ll be in big trouble if we don’t step it up.

The good news: I think Beckman steps it up. Given the number of talented in-state players next year and the staff Beckman put together, I think we can pull in a top-25 class in 2013. If not, we’ll be in big trouble, talent-wise. So 2013 needs to be a monster class.

2012 does too, but Beckman gets a free pass. Just this once.

We all want to win, right?  We’re somewhere between the 12th and 14th most successful college basketball program in history, depending on which metric you use.  And we consider ourselves a basketball school, so I think we can all agree that we expect Sweet 16′s on a regular basis.  We’re top-5 nationally in fertile recruiting grounds, and I don’t think we’ve dropped out of the top 12 in attendance figures in a long time, so the elements are all there for a successful basketball program.

That’s the baseline – we all want to win.  So why do some people get angry when you suggest we make a coaching change?

Nine years is a long time.  In that time, Bruce Weber took us to the Final Four.  Hey, awesome.  Had Luther’s three fallen, I think we win.  Too bad it didn’t fall.

Now, we’re in a funk, which is probably a 5-6 year funk, and we can’t seem to get out of it.  We just lost our third straight game at Penn State.  We beat a top-5 team and then stub our toe against the worst team in the league.  We just can’t escape the middle of the pack of the Big Ten.

And the product on the court is messed up, too.  We had 2 fast break points tonight (against the worst team in the league).  We drew up a final play and couldn’t get a shot to hit the rim for what seems like the 9th consecutive time.  I was thinking in the second half – when was the last time I exclaimed “oh nice pass” when someone found an open Joseph Bertrand or Tyler Griffey under the hoop for two.  Remember the Frankie/Serge/Arch teams?  It feels like I said “oh nice pass” about 3 times per game back then – partly because Frankie could create, and partly because that team just flowed and we got multiple easy looks every game.  We don’t even do one tenth of that any more.

So why not try something different?  Why not fire the coach and get someone else in here?  Why does me saying that cause half of you to get angry?  Why do we need sides?

To me, it’s simple.  It’s not working.  Something’s not right.  Yes, we beat Ohio State and Jerry Palm made us a 2 seed.  But when you look at this team – when you really investigate it – something is missing.  Communication between the coach and the players just isn’t clicking.  This roster just doesn’t seem to understand the offense like Dee and Deron did.  Opposing coaches know how to attack it, and unless we’re shooting well, we don’t seem to know how to adjust.  This is a problem that has been going on for 5 1/2 years.  A time frame where we’re .500 in the Big Ten and have only 1 NCAA tournament victory.

So why not try something different?  When some communications company hits a funk, they change CEO’s.  No hard feelings, thanks for your 6 years, here’s your buyout, let’s try something different. When a school system is underperforming, you get a new superintendent.  New ideas, fresh concepts, let’s keep pushing to make this thing great.  I don’t understand why we don’t just do that.  Even if we go to the Sweet 16 this year.

I know that most people on Team Weber will read this and say “you’re not playing the middle here – this is just another angle on hating Weber.”  But I don’t hate Weber.  That’s the thing.  I’m genuinely pleased that he took us to the Championship Game and has now turned around the recruiting that led to our funk.  I’ve met him before – seems like a nice enough guy.  His daughters seem well-raised.  He cleans the pool for his wife.  He can even be funny here and there and entertain us.

But he loses too many basketball games.  He can’t beat Penn State.  He’s taken a solid program and made it worse.  He struggles to draw up plays when we have the ball with the shot clock off.  He doesn’t seem to communicate and click with Brandon and DJ the way he did with Deron and Dee.

I guess what I’m saying is that we beat Ohio State because of Brandon Paul, not Bruce Weber.  And we lost to Penn State because of Bruce Weber, not Brandon Paul.  The occasional hot night from BP3 will beat Ohio State, and the occasional late game heroics from Sam Maniscalco will rescue us from an embarrassing loss to Illinois State, but for the most part, this basketball team has underperformed 5 of the last 6 years.  And we’ve won 1 tourney game in that span.  And we haven’t been to the Sweet 16 since 2005.  The machine is broken, so we should fire the coach.  It’s that simple.

If I was Mike Thomas, I’d make a change this year, even if we made the Sweet 16.  The wins that would get us there can’t mask the issues of the last 5+ years.  At Illinois, if you consistently lose to Penn State, you get fired.  The end.  This team – this roster – could be really good next year if they were playing in a system they enjoyed.  They don’t appear to enjoy, nor do they excel in, the current system. We struggle to execute, it takes a hot shooter for us to win, and we can’t score on the break nor find an open man under the basket for an easy layup.  It’s just not working, and this is a school with enough resources that it MUST work.

So why not try something different?

Instead, Jerry Palm says we’re a 2 seed.  Um, what?

And I didn’t even mention the fact that we trailed St. Bonaventure 39-30 with 5:00 left.  Or that we were tied with Cornell with 1:30 remaining (at home).  Or that we were tied with Nebraska with 1:00 remaining (at home).  If we just go 50/50 in our close games, we’re 12-6 or maybe even 11-7.  Instead, we’re 15-3, ranked, and, according to some bracketologists, on our way to a two seed.

What?

In 2009/10, I documented all of our close losses.  I believe I played the opposite angle – 4 shots go in and we’re headed for a 3 seed and not the bubble.  So I fully realize that this very thin line is what separates the great from the good.  Win the close ones, gain confidence, and it builds upon itself.  Lose the close ones, and you end up playing at Stony Brook in the first round of the NIT because the circus is in town.

So will this build upon itself?  Well, the schedule certainly sets up that way.  With our next 5 games (at Penn State, Wisconsin, at Minnesota, Michigan State, Northwestern), another 4-1 stretch is possible.  I, for one, would very much enjoy going into our February 9th game at Indiana still sitting in first place in the Big Ten at 8-2.  But I can also see us going into that game 5-5 because our late-game heroics dried up and we started to tailspin.  This is my conundrum.  We’re either much better than I even realize or the luckiest team in NCAA basketball.

Which means the two sides of my personal Jekyll/Hyde Illini personality appears.  The pessimistic Illini fan in me says we all know what’s happening tonight - Penn State wins, probably at the buzzer, likely by some walkon’s banked-in three pointer.  The Kool-Aid Illini fanatic in me says we have a better chance than any other B1G team at the Big Ten title and a 1-seed.  WHAT?  Yeah, a 1-seed.

OK – we’re not getting a 1-seed.  That’s ridiculous.  Yes, the Big Ten is strong, so the Big Ten champ probably gets a 1-seed.  But the Big Ten is strong – no chance we emerge unscathed.  10-8 in conference is much more likely than 15-3.

Which puts me in a weird place.  I have no idea how to feel about the game tonight.  And I honestly have no idea where this season will end up. At this point last year, especially after the loss at Indiana, we pretty much knew where the season was headed.  Same in 2009/10 – we knew by mid-to-late January that we were headed for a bubbly mess.

This year?  No clue.  We might spiral down to the bubble.  We might surge to a 2-seed.  We might go 8-10 in the Big Ten and still make the tourney.  We might win the Big Ten.

OK, we’re not winning the Big Ten.  That’s ridiculous.  Or is it?  Yes, ridiculous.  Or maybe not.

Yes, THAT game.  Here’s why.

Because of some scheduling conflict, the big Easter dinner/celebrate my mother-in-law’s birthday deal got moved to Saturday, March 26, 2005.  I remember praying for a Friday-Sunday Sweet 16 bracket, but when that didn’t happen, I knew what I had to do: I had to record the game and watch it on tape delay.  There was no way to miss the Easter/birthday thing, and there was no way I could escape to the basement for 2.5 hours of basketball.  This would be good.  I could skip the commercials and watch it quickly.  And besides, we’re going to destroy Arizona.

So I turned off my phone, avoided all media (I wouldn’t even turn on the radio driving home for fear of some radio DJ spilling the beans), and started watching the game around 11:30 that night.  Oh – I should note that my in-laws are not Illini fans.  They’re from Idaho.  They might or might not have even known the NCAA tournament was going on at the time.  So to execute this plan, their house was a perfect hideout.  They live in the middle of nowhere with no cell service – my brother-in-law seeing something on his phone was an impossibility as well.

Once we got down 15, I’ll admit to watching the game on fast forward.  My heart was pounding.  Like you, I was in total disbelief, but I had the advantage of speeding up that disgust.  I remember rubbing my face in an “I can’t believe this is happening” moment and then looking up and seeing we’re down 7.  I remember thinking that if I took it off fast forward, I might jinx our comeback (yes, while watching a game on tape at 12:45 in the morning).  So I kept watching on fast forward until we cut it to 3.  And then I watched from Deron’s 3 to the end while pacing.

When Arizona’s desperation heave missed and the game was over, I ran around my house looking for someone to high five.  We had a cat at the time, and I think I lifted the cat in the air in celebration.  I turned on my phone to find 7 voicemails and dozens of texts.  I had my own little “we’re going to the Final Four” celebration at 1:00 in the morning.

So I was prepared for tonight.

My son had an event at his school, and I had some extra work to do for a meeting tomorrow, so I stayed at work until 9:15 and then picked up my son.  I wanted to watch the Ohio State game live – you know, just in case – so I turned off my phone at 8:00 and avoided anything Illini internet.  I turned on my phone on my way to get him so I could let him know I was on my way and oops – a text pops up from a friend simply saying “here they come!” So now my heart was racing.  We must have been down, but we must be fighting back.  I noted the time of 9:13.

I got my son at his school and we headed home.  Left the radio off.  Talked about homework and his nose that might be broken from wrestling with his brother and the fact that he doesn’t have school on Monday.  When we got home, I gave him some instructions: go inside and make sure the TV is not on ESPN.  The last thing I wanted to do was make it this long only to walk in and see the score late in the game.  He came back out and gave me the coast is clear signal, and I headed in to watch the game “live”.  I had a mini-panic attack making sure the game was recording (I look at that little red light like people look at pregnancy tests – “Is it on? Is that red?  That looks orange – DOES THAT MEAN SOMETHING ELSE?”)  My son went to bed, my wife was asleep, the dog was asleep – I made it.  Now to watch the game “live”.

BOOM.  Brandon Paul.  That just happened.  I ran upstairs and woke up my son just because I had to tell someone.  Then I spent an hour looking over message boards and Twitter and watching for SportsCenter highlights.  And now it’s 12:56 and I’m nowhere close to sleep.  Some thoughts:

+ One of the posts I started but never published over the weekend was a post comparing the Ohio State football game in October to the Ohio State basketball game tonight.  I looked at the parallels between the two games – both of our teams were winning close games and surprising some opponents right up until the Ohio State game, and then reality hit.  For the football team it meant 6 straight losses.  What would it mean for the basketball team?

Now I’m really glad I didn’t post it.  In the same way the football loss was the beginning of a tailspin, this basketball win can be the beginning of a rally.  We have 9 days off now, so there’s plenty of time to get past the hangover.  The next three games – at Penn State, Wisconsin at home, at Minnesota – are all winnable.  So if we really want to make something of this season, the table is set.  If Michigan State loses at Michigan next week, we’ll take the court in Happy Valley tied for the Big Ten lead.  Win that and have a few other things go our way this weekend and next, and we could emerge the following week in sole possession of first place in the B1G.

*slams on brakes* Sorry, got a little carried away.

+ There’s really nothing I could say about Brandon Paul’s performance tonight.  No words would be able to describe it.  We’ll simply forever refer to this game as The Brandon Paul Game.  I refer to a lot of things like that – The Andy Kauffman Shot, The Jack Ingram Game At Wisconsin, etc. – and this is the next one.  In 23 years, when your kids are having kids, you’ll say The Brandon Paul Game to your brother-in-law and he’ll know what you’re talking about.

That sequence where he hit the shot with Craft’s hand an inch from his face and then the block on Sullinger at the other end – I can’t remember a sequence like that in a long time.  Frankie against Iowa with Dick Vitale going crazy?  That’s the last “what an INSANE sequence” I can remember.*

* please note that I exclude the Arizona game from these lists.  If allowed, every Illini reference, from best comeback to craziest steal to best block of a three pointer, would source back to the Arizona game.

An all-time ridiculous stat line for Paul tonight: 43 points, 8 boards, 4 blocks, 2 steals, 2 assists, and 7 turnovers.

+ Amazing how un-broken our offense looks when Paul scores 43 points.  The bench doesn’t score a single point, Maniscalco doesn’t play, DJ plays all 40 minutes with his iffy wrist, JoeBert plays the majority of his minutes at the 4, and we looked better than we have since the Gonzaga game.

We can’t expect to shoot 60% every game (Ohio State took 21 more shots than we did – and they lost by 5), and we can’t expect Paul to get to 23 points, let alone 43.  But if we can build on the confidence from this game – we were aggressive on the offensive end, and it paid off – then we could really put Humpty back together again.

+ I’m still reeling from how many times we fought back after Ohio State made a run.  Was it 4 times? 5?  It felt like 5 times where they’d push out to a 6-9 point lead, only to have us rattle off 7 straight points.  Amazing.

OK, I need to get some sleep. I’ll probably read this over in the morning and realize I jumped way too far ahead based on one game, and that the same issues that were there at Purdue will be there at Penn State. I guess I can worry about that next week. For tonight, what a game.

It’s Broken

Our offense.  It’s broken.  Sorry – I should be more specific.  The motion offense that Bruce Weber uses for the basketball team is broken.  It needs to be fixed.  I realize that you might be confused, given that the offense for the football team was broken and in need of repair as well.  But this subsection is for the basketball offense.

It’s broken.  Nothing works.  In our last 5 games at Assembly Hall, we were tied with Nebraska with 2 minutes to go (a team we should have destroyed), we went to double overtime with Minnesota (a team we should have destroyed), we beat Cornell by 4 (a team we should have destoryed), we led Coppin State by only 2 with 7:00 to play (a team we should have destroyed), and we beat St. Bonaventure 48-43 in a game where we trailed 39-30 with 5:30 to go.  Oh, and the Bonnies were a team we should have destroyed.

Why are all of these games close?  Because the offense is broken.  Yes, Maniscalco is injured, and DJ hurt his wrist – there’s certainly some excuses out there for why the offense looked so poor yesterday.  But this is the 5th consecutive game at Assembly Hall where our offense sputtered against an inferior opponent.  The last seven minutes against Coppin State and the second overtime against Minnesota are the only times I can remember thinking that the offense was clicking.  The rest of the time, if the ball isn’t in Joseph Bertrand’s hands, we’re in big trouble.

(Sorry to the 3 readers who have been in comas for the last 3 months.  Yes, that’s really what I typed.  Our offense is in huge trouble if the ball isn’t in Joseph Bertrand’s hands.  He’s our best scorer by a country mile.  Yes, really.  Oh, and Kim Jong-il died.)

If we don’t fix the offense, I’m pretty sure we’ll lose 6 of our next 8 games.  And if we lose 6 of our next 8 games, I’m pretty sure we miss the tournament.  And if we miss the tournament, I’m pretty sure Bruce Weber gets fired.  So, hey, Bruce: you might want to fix the offense.

Lost In Transition

As we enter the Beckman era, I’m curious how much rope Illini fans will give.  Whenever there’s a coaching change, I always automatically look forward to Year 3 as being the time that the new staff/schemes begin to make a surge.  Part of this is because of Ron Turner and Ron Zook, who both went from nothingness to a bowl game in Year 3.  Part of this is because other programs, from Barry Alvarez at Wisconsin to Kirk Ferentz at Iowa, usually see a big surge in the third or fourth season.  The systems are in place, the players are recruited for those systems, and patience pays off as the teams continue to climb.

This scenario is a bit different.  Tim Beckman is inheriting a team that has been to back-to-back bowls (albeit a 6-10 Big Ten record those two seasons).  He probably won’t need 3 to 4 years to get the program on track.

Or will he?  Zook’s recruiting fell off in 2010, and while that class fortunately contained many impact players, the 2011 and (so far) 2012 classes are ranked much lower than any other classes that Ron Zook put together.  So if there’s going to be a talent dip approaching, it probably hits somewhat next year and a lot in 2013.

So how much rope will Illini fans give Tim Beckman?  Next year is a transition year – brand new offense, brand new defense, playmakers gone on both sides of the ball, and an entirely new way to go about everything from training camp to team meals.  Look no further than Michigan in 2008 (or Minnesota and Indiana last year) to see that teams with new coaching staffs can sometimes look completely lost the first few years.

And the schedule gets tougher, too.  No more 8 home games, tough slate of non-conference games next year, Washington and Cincinnati in 2013 (with Nebraska and Michigan State added to the schedule), etc.  Beckman will have his hands full working through the last of the Guenther-regime schedules.

So here’s how I see it playing out:  Tim Beckman brings in a fantastic 2013 recruiting class.  Given a full year with his recruiting-heavy staff, he pulls in a legitimate top-25 class next year.  And the next year, while not as great, is still a very solid recruiting class.  But he goes 5-7 one year and 4-8 the other year, and impatient Illini fans start to wonder why we fired 6-6 Ron Zook for 4-8 Tim Beckman.  Will he get enough rope to get those great recruiting classes to their junior and senior years?  Do we have enough talent on the roster to bridge the gap between now and then?  We shall see.