Tyler Griffey. DJ Richardson.

Those are the two names I want to add to the first list. The list of “guys who put it all together as seniors.” I love nothing more than a Nate Bussey-like senior year. Relative obscurity, never quite there, and then BOOM senior star. Here’s my recollection of each player from that hastily-put-together list:

Chris Gandy

Gandy is the best example of what I hoping to see from DJ and Tyler. He never quite found his place under Henson, but in his senior seasion, with Lon taking over, suddenly he’s our go-to post player with a pure baseline jumper. That was a fun season in 1996/97. Kiwane’s final year where he climbed to #2 on the all-time scoring list, Gandy surprised, Heldman/Hester/Turner showed why they’d be vital pieces the following season, and we found ourselves ranked and playing a 14 seed for a shot at the Sweet 16. I won’t tell you how that ended.

Kevin Turner

And then the next year, BOOM, Kevin Turner scores 33 at UCLA and suddenly the tag-along recruit we signed with Bryant Notree is a first-team All Big Ten performer. I’m totally going from memory there. Maybe he scored 31. Might have been USC or something. And maybe he was only second team. But at least in my head, it’s 33/UCLA/1st Team. That was another fun season. And if we’re looking for an example of two players who put it all together at the same time, why, look no further than…

Jerry Hester

Quick, what’s your first thought when you think of Jerry Hester? You said the game at Indiana where Teddy Valentine kicked Bobby Knight out of the game and Hester took over in the second half, didn’t you? Well, to be honest, that’s not what I’d say – I’d say overtime of the 1996 Missouri game where Hester took over and we broke our 4 game losing streak and Larry Connelly screamed “I’m telling you he’s the guy” on ESPN. That’s what I think of. But that’s because I watched that game on VHS approximately 50 times.

I picked Hester, but I could have said several other players on the 1998 Big Ten Championship team. What a perfect time for the seniors to step up. Hey, speaking of seniors stepping up.

Jack Ingram

Quick – how many minutes did Jack Ingram play in the two Final Four games in 2005? Would you believe 51? All season Big Jack kept progressing and progressing until he was firmly entrenched as our 6th man. And if he doesn’t tip the ball away against Arizona, we’re looking back on 2005 as a huge disappointment. Tyler Griffey – go watch some film of 2005 Jack Ingram and then do exactly that next season. Including the two dagger threes at Wisconsin.

Warren Carter

WarCat! Averaged 2 points per game as a sophomore, averaged 4 points per game as a junior, and then BOOM 2nd team All Big Ten as a senior. Completely out of nowhere. With a Gandy-like baseline jumper. Now is when I want DJ to listen. No, I’m not comparing you to WarCat. But remember that baseline floater you loved in high school but couldn’t ever use in the motion offense? Rediscover that. You’ll be glad you did.

Trent Meacham

I saw Trent Meacham at Custard Cup once. There’s nothing more to that story – just that I saw Meacham at Custard Cup and now The Cup has found it’s way into Illini meme lore what with Bruce leaving his presser and immediately heading out for a Berry Delightful Parfait and I thought that was somehow significant.

OK, so maybe this is a good goal for DJ. Meacham increased everything his senior year – his shooting percentage, his 3-point percentage, his free throw percentage, everything. Most of all, I remember his senior year as the first time he really looked comfortable on the court. My recollection of that season was simply Chet and Trent gelling as a backcourt and everything falling into place from there.

There are other examples that aren’t coming to mind, I’m sure. The name Craig Tucker keeps popping up in my head, although I was too young to really remember anything back then. And Larry Smith had a great final season in 1991. I’m sure there are others.

My point: I want DJ and Tyler to be the next two on this list. A new offense, a new coach, a new start. I’m hoping the urgency of their senior seasons combined with the new mindset from a new coaching staff will produce a Chris Gandy/Kevin Turner result.

I’d add BP3 to this list, but he was our leading scorer last season, so it’s hard to see a breakout season in the future. Although, if he wanted to, say, turn his 14.7 points per game into 19.7 points per game, I won’t complain.

I also wrote some stuff on our new hoops transfer, Sam McLaurin, but I was trying way, way too hard to be funny. Get this – I was going to title the post “Play It Again, Sam” and make lots of Sam Maniscalco/Sam McLaurin comparisons. This post included, I kid you not, a bit about “who’s next – Sam Worthington?” and, AND, the word “ManiscalifragilisticexpialiAWESOME”. I’m not kidding – I was going to use that word. And it was going to be FUNNY. You people have no idea how much you’d dislike me if I published everything I wrote.

It’s especially hard to not post such things in the offseason, when there’s very little to write about. Topics are few and far between from May through July. There’s lots of basketball recruiting stuff, and I’m pretty excited about following that again, and I have an expansion on the “rank all 89 players who might contribute to the football team this fall” series planned for this summer, but beyond that, the topic pool is thin. Which leads me to type things like “who’s next – SAM WORTHINGTON?”

So when I find myself in that place, I delete those posts and write a post like this. It’s my way of apologizing for no new posts while also communicating my goal to never post anything substandard on this site (which invites great irony given the substandard nature of this post, but now we’re running in circles).  I need Camp Rantoul to get here like Pat Fitzgerald needs substandard non-conference scheduling.

Hey, there’s a nice offseason statistic that would fit in a post complaining about the lack of offseason topics to write about: the absolutely incredible non-conference streaks that Illinois and Northwestern have compiled the last five years.  Illinois hasn’t played a non-conference opponent with a below .500 record since Syracuse in 2007.  Northwestern hasn’t played a non-conference FBS opponent with an at-or-above-.500 record since Nevada in 2007.  Here’s the lists:

The Illinois Streak
1. Ball State 2007 – 7-5
2. Missouri 2008 – 9-3
3. Louisiana-Lafayette 2008 – 6-6
4. Western Michigan 2008 – 9-3
5. Missouri 2009 – 8-4
6. Cincinnati 2009 – 12-0
7. Fresno State 2009 – 8-4
8. Missouri 2010 – 10-2
9. Northern Illinois 2010 – 10-2
10. Fresno State 2010 – 8-4
11. Arkansas State 2011 – 10-2
12. Arizona State 2011 – 6-6
13. Western Michigan 2011 – 7-5

The Northwestern Streak
1. Duke 2007 – 1-11
2. Eastern Michigan 2007 – 4-8
3. Syracuse 2008 – 3-9
4. Duke 2008 – 4-8
5. Ohio 2008 – 4-8
6. Eastern Michigan 2009 – 0-12
7. Syracuse 2009 – 4-8
8. Miami (OH) 2009 – 1-11
9. Vanderbilt 2010 – 2-10
10. Rice 2010 – 4-8
11. Central Michigan 2010 – 3-9
12. Boston College 2011 – 4-8
13. Army 2011 – 3-9
14. Rice 2011 – 4-8

So if you include our other non-conference games in 2007 (11-1 Missouri and 2-10 Syracuse) and theirs (6-6 Nevada), here’s the cumulative totals for the regular season records of the last 15 Illinois and Northwestern non-conference FBS opponents:

Illinois Fighting Illini: 123-57 (.683)
Northwestern Purple People: 47-133 (.261)

An orange non-con schedule that makes me cry, and a purple one that makes me laugh out loud.  The lesson we’ve all learned today: when struggling to come up with topics to write about in the offseason, point to the easiest non-conference schedule in college football history and laugh at Northwestern’s fake resurgence.

I don’t know about you, but I feel better already.

Now I have 33 minutes to tell you everything you wanted to know about how I feel about the last 48 hours. 32 minutes and 45 seconds.  I best just start typing.

Rayvonte Rice to Illinois

*loves*

I’m a huge fan of this move.  With Crandall Head leaving, Meyers Leonard off to the NBA, Michael Orris de-committing, and DJ, BP3, and Grif graduating, we have lots of room to get creative with the 2013 class.  Adding a transfer from the MVC might be a questionable move if you’ve only got one or two scholarships left, but we can add Rice AND have three more scholarships to give.

I’ve watched him play a few times, and my main reaction is this:  he’s kind of that pest that you hate to play against.  He’s that guy that always ends up with the loose ball with 45 seconds left.  He’s not the perfect height for a Big Ten wing (6′-4″ and 240 pounds), but he can overpower you and get into the lane (to the tune of 16.8 points per game last year at Drake).  But the thing I love the most are his other statistics: 11th in the MVC in rebounding (for a wing guard).  1st in the MVC in steals.  I think this is the perfect glue guy for the 13/14 and 14/15 teams.  And who knows – he might just be our leading scorer.

With those last three scholarships, I think we do this:  One is hidden in a desk drawer somewhere in an envelope with the words “do not open unless your name is Jabari Parker”.  One goes to Kendrick Nunn (or someone else who is a hired-gun shooter), and the third goes to a big (Gavin Schilling? Tony Farmer? Devin Williams?).  And if Parker ends up elsewhere, give that one to another big as well.

Whit to the Texans, AJ to the Niners

All we do is put players in the first round.

No, seriously, all we do is put players in the first round.

First round picks by school since 2008:

Alabama: 11
USC: 10
Florida: 6
Illinois: 5

Both exhilarating and infuriating, right?  Lots of first round talent since 2008 – and a 22-28 record.

But Tim Beckman is sitting in a pretty good position right now.  He can turn to high school defensive linemen and tell them how Keith Gilmore put Corey Liuget and Whitney the Mercilus in the first round.  He can turn to Laquon Treadwell and tell him that if AJ Jenkins can go from Illinois to the first round, he can do the same.  And he can walk into every living room and say “Alabama, USC, Florida… Illinois.”  With a straight face.

So congrats to Whitney and AJ.  I think I speak for all Illinois fans when I say we’re crazy excited for you both.  And I’d like to take just  a moment to say something about Paul Petrino:  after AJ cleaned out his locker and moved home after the 2009 season, he met with Zook and Petrino about the new offense we’d be installing.  And if I remember correctly, Petrino said that he would not only feature AJ if he came back, but that he’d put him in the draft.  Good work, Paul.  Oh – sorry about your brother and all.

And one more thing as well about the good position Tim Beckman is sitting in:

AARON BAILEY TO ILLINOIS

From 12 days ago, in my whiny “Alviti to Northwestern isn’t FAIR” post:

OK, I need to go to bed. And dream of 4-star quarterbacks coming to Champaign. Aaron Bailey, a weary Illini nation turns our eyes to you.

And he LISTENED.  If I didn’t have to leave in 11 minutes, I could type 2,000 words on this subject.  My mind is ablaze with trying to figure out which my my 34 thoughts to type out.  I’ll start here.

In the last 30 years, I think the order of “top-5 Illini QB recruits” goes like this:

1. Jeff George
2. Juice Williams
3. Aaron Bailey
4. Nathan Scheelhaase
5. Jeff Hecklinski

In the last 15 years, I think the list of “Baker’s Dozen of the Top Illini Recruits” goes like this:

1. Arrelious Benn
2. Martez Wilson
3. Rashard Mendenhall
4. Martin O’Donnell
5. Melvin Alaeze
6. Terry Hawthorne
7. Justin Green
8. Juice Williams
9. Aaron Bailey
10. Corey Liuget
11. Josh Brent
12. Ismail Abdufani
13. Nathan Scheelhaase

This is a big, big deal.  Similar to when Juice verballed to Illinois on May 28, 2005.  Zook was new on the job, recruiting started slowly, and then BAM the #3 QB on Rivals (#6 QB on Scout) verbals and the class takes off.  Yesterday? BAM the #4 QB on Rivals (#6 QB on Scout) verbals, and now the class should take off.

(I’m in this total panic now – I have, like 4 minutes left).

I think he’s the perfect QB for this spread.  I think he has enough arm that, although he doesn’t use it in high school, he can be groomed to be a fantastic college QB.  I think he’s the best runner of any QB we’ve ever recruited in 120 some years of Illini football.  I think he’ll have a 200 yard rushing game.  Maybe several.

And I think we can build an entire recruiting class around him.  I think crazy-good in-state players might actually listen when we call.  I think we might be able to land one of the top in-state tackles.

I think I’m out of time.  I’ll have to add more words later about Bailey.  But I’ll just say this:  he’s the biggest Illini recruit to verbal during the Obama Administration.  Football or Basketball.  This is a huge, huge deal.

Great, now I’m late.  Go Illini.

I had the opportunity to join Eric Loy on WDAN (Danville) this week to talk some Groce and some spring ball.  Link of the audio is below.  The end.

Hey go listen to me talk

See you at the spring game tomorrow.

The source of my unrest: this article. A simple article written by the Manhattan paper about their new coach and his history. With so many excuses and untruths that I simply must set the record straight. Please go read the article. If you agree with everything, here’s your second opportunity to stop reading. I’m serious – if this doesn’t interest you, just wait for tomorrow’s football post. Last chance. Here we go.

It was the morning of Feb. 11 when things took an ugly turn for Weber and the Illinois men’s basketball team. Mike Thomas, in his first year as the Illini athletics director, went on radio to answer questions from Illinois fans, and when Weber’s job security came into question, Thomas didn’t give his coach a vote of confidence.

“As I’ve always said, I will assess the situation at the end of the season,” Thomas said at the time. “I need to look at the total body of work and all of the things that come into play as far as making those decisions. Because those are important decisions and they affect a lot of people.”
The perception from coaches and college basketball analysts around the country was that Thomas made a critical mistake.

“Thomas is a new athletic director and everyone knew Bruce wasn’t his guy,” said ESPN college basketball analyst Doug Gottlieb. “Most people thought Bruce was on the hot seat, and even though we think that, it’s not really how you should handle it when you’re an AD.

“The moment he didn’t lend his support was the moment Illinois’ season torpedoed. It’s in direct correlation there. Somebody has to have your back even if they mean it or not. That sure as heck didn’t help.”

Completely false. I know Tom Izzo and Gene Keady and Doug Gottlieb and others keep repeating this, but it’s simply not. true. If Mike Thomas’ non-vote-of-confidence was a torpedo, then it was the dumbest torpedo in the history of maritime warfare, given that it was aimed at a ship that was already 90% under water.

How do I know? I lived it. So did you. We lived the last five years, four of which where the basketball team finished well below preseason expectations. Last year we were ranked #16 in mid-January, and then finished 20-14. This past season we were #22 in mid-January, and then finished 17-15. Mike Thomas had nothing to do with that.

This whole thing was very simple. A coach who had underperformed, and an athletic director who, after a season-sinking 5 of 6 losing streak with losses to Penn State, Minnesota, and Northwestern (at home), simply said “I’ll evaluate at the end of the season”, something that every athletic director on earth not named Ron Guenther would have done. He was sub-.500 in conference over six seasons at that point. That gets you fired at Wofford. And Mike Thomas was supposed to give him a vote of confidence? I seriously don’t understand.

“I think it’s so important to have support,” Weber said in an interview on Wednesday evening. “When you don’t have support I think you coach defensive, you coach not with the confidence you need to. It was hard. It was really hard on our kids more than anything.

“When the situation occurred I think we lost our spirit — the heart of our team. We kept battling. We battled every game. But it hurt the team — especially a young team that was very fragile. It just created a tough situation.”

Is it coach? It’s important to have support? “When the situation occurred” you think the team “lost their spirit”? Then please explain why you made these comments on February 15th, four days after Mike Thomas appeared on the radio.

“The sad thing about the whole thing, and I guess it’s my fault, is instead of creating toughness and developing a team, I coached not to lose all year,” Weber said.

“Instead of developing people, I’m worried about winning. Maybe sit Meyers down three weeks ago or a month ago or two months ago. And Brandon (Paul). But that’s my fault. You’ve got to develop a culture and I think the last three years all I did was worry about winning instead of developing a culture and a toughness. And that’s my fault.”

So let me make sure I’m following here. It was “hard on the kids” to hear that the athletic director said “I’ll evaluate the situation at the end of the season” (if they even heard about it), but it wasn’t hard on the kids for you to get in front of the press four days later and speak in past tense about the season that still had six more games on the schedule? Am I taking crazy pills? Does any of this make sense?

Just because Gene Keady and Tom Izzo keep saying that it was the AD’s fault, we’re all supposed to believe them and just nod our heads when it gets repeated? It’s patently false. But now even our former coach is saying it. And it’s so disingenuous that I can’t stay silent. Please, everyone, stop saying Mike Thomas sank the season. He didn’t. It’s just not true.

“The season was going along fine,” Kevin Stallings, the head coach of Vanderbilt, said in a phone interview with The Mercury. “When the lack of support became apparent in a very public way, then it affected his team and it affected him.

“From that point forward it became a very, very difficult proposition because he knew he didn’t have any support. Everything became more difficult and then it became very, very difficult for him. You can see the writing on the wall when you’re doing well and you don’t get public support.”

Great, we have to add Kevin Stallings to the list as well. This is some outstanding narrative control. Stunningly impressive, honestly. Can someone send this post to a Vandy beat writer? I want someone to ask Kevin Stallings this specific question: “If Mike Thomas ‘affected the team’ with his non-support, how do you feel Bruce Weber’s post-Purdue game comments four days later ‘affected the team’?”

“I spoke at a journalism professor’s class every year in the spring and the fall,” Weber said. “He wrote me a letter when we were going through the turmoil. He said ‘Coach, you screwed up. You did too well too early and you raised the expectations.’”

People close to Weber say those expectations, from the administration on down to the fans, simply became too difficult to replicate over his tenure at Illinois.

“I really think that this business is very, very difficult nowadays for a coach to be in one place for very long,” said Stallings, who just completed his 13th season as the head coach at Vanderbilt. “If you don’t have Tom Izzo-type success — it’s very difficult with the Internet and talk radio — eventually they’re going to focus on your warts, focus on the things that are negative.

“I think in Bruce’s case, he went there and set the bar at a level that Illinois had never known in their entire history of their program. And then he became a victim of his own success. He created his own monster with that success. I think that is more common these days than people would think and it’s really a shame.”

OK, I’m on Candid Camera. I have to be. Someone wrote this article simply to push all of my buttons and they’re now filming me as I contort my face and bang on the keyboard. Well, I guess I’ll give a good performance.

Illinois Basketball from 1984 to 1989: Elite Eight, Sweet Sixteen, Second Round, First Round, Second Round, Final Four.

Illinois Basketball during the Kruger and Self years: Second Round, Second Round, no tournament, Second Round, Elite Eight, Sweet Sixteen, Second Round.

And then Weber ran us to Sweet Sixteen, Final Four, Second Round. Did those seasons “raise the expectations”? If I’m really honest… maybe? Maybe going to the championship game – a height we hadn’t reached in our previous four Final Fours – cranked up expectations a notch?

But certainly not to the level being claimed here. Every Illini fan I know would say that Bill Self, through his recruiting and his performance in the conference (at at Assembly Hall, where I believe he only lost once), cranked up our expectations to “we could be a national program and inch towards elite”. I know not one person in my life who would say that Bruce Weber “raised the expectations” at Illinois. Every single one of them would say that Bill Self raised the expectations, and once Self’s players were gone, Weber failed to meet them.

OK, I can’t do any more quotes from that article. This whole thing feels gross. I hate writing this. I hate that our former coach is apparently so insecure that he’s trying to re-write the narrative of his Illinois years. I wish beyond anything in the world that he would own all of the issues raised in this article. I’d kill to hear him say “Eric Gordon? Honestly – I made some mistakes there in failing to land other guys like Evan Turner and failing to offer guys like Robbie Hummel.” Or “Mike Thomas’ comments? I was the one paid to win basketball games, and I just didn’t win enough to keep my job – I’m taking the lessons I learned from that and applying them to this basketball program here at Kansas State.”

If he says that, I’m fine. Even happy for him. It was very painful to watch his final press conference with his wife and daughters in the background, and I said at the time that I hope he meant what he said in the post-Purdue press conference, because if he did, then he’ll be successful at his next stop.

But he’s not saying that. He’s not owning any of it. He’s making excuses and trotting out false narrative. And possibly worst of all, he’s not owning the losses that got him fired. He was paid to win basketball games, he didn’t, so he lost his job. It’s that simple. Yet instead of learning from that, he’s saying things like this:

“I think we maybe took a little higher level of a player. Maybe we didn’t search out the toughness that you needed and that’s why we probably didn’t win the close games that we needed to (this past season).”

Wait. Didn’t he just say…

“You’ve got to develop a culture and I think the last three years all I did was worry about winning instead of developing a culture and a toughness. And that’s my fault.”

So which is it? The second feels like owning it – like a realization that in the end, it’s your job as the head coach to build a team, and you didn’t do that. The first feels like an excuse.

I’m going with B. Please go back to that one, coach. Own it, and we’re good. Spin it, and I won’t be able to not write eight more of these posts. I love this team too much to tolerate any untruths and spin. Especially those from a former coach.

About a month ago, I followed a link to the great Mgoblog (yes, a Michigan website can be “great”). Brian had linked my Ain’t No Sunshine post and said the following:

A Lion Eye is depressed; A Lion Eye is always depressed. A Lion Eye reminds me of me two years ago.

Always depressed, eh? Valid. I started this blog three years ago, and in that time, the basketball team is 58-44, and the football team is 17-21. And, perhaps most importantly, I looked at that 17-21 and said to myself “you know, not really half bad, considering”. A basketball team that went from the mountaintop seven years ago tonight to one tournament win in six years. A football team that has won seven regular season games only once in the last ten years. And two coaches who wore out their welcome, stayed a few years too long, and finished their careers with epic collapses, all in the last six months.

So yeah, I’m depressed. While driving to work today, I was thinking about a Wisconsin fan I met 20 years ago. In 1992, I watched The Laettner Game on the couch of a Wisconsin fraternity house while visiting Madison for the weekend. After the game, I got to talking to some Wisconsin kool-aid drinker about their football and basketball programs. He spoke of an awakening. A dawn. “Stu Jackson and Barry Alvarez are about to put Wisconsin athletics on the map.” If I recall correctly, he predicted a top-5 ranking for both teams within four years. He hit on football for sure; it took a while for Wisconsin basketball to get up and running.

But I thought of that guy today. How comfortable he must feel. We’ve made 3 tournaments in the last six seasons? Wisconsin has made 14 straight. Wisconsin basketball. Wisconsin. When we had that conversation in March of 1992, Wisconsin hadn’t been to the NCAA tournament since 1946. Let me say that again, in case you missed it. When I had that conversation with this guy, and he predicted future greatness for their basketball team, he was speaking of a team that had not made the NCAA tournament in 46 years. And now they’ve been to 14 consecutive NCAA Tournaments.

And football. We’ve made six bowl games the last 19 years. Wisconsin? 17 bowl games in 19 years. That day in 1992, while talking to the Wisconsin fan, we had been to eight bowls the previous 11 years and Wisconsin had been to zero bowls since 1984. I laughed in his face when he predicted Wisconsin dominance over the Illini. Like Wisconsin would ever rise above Illinois in athletic departments. Wisconsin.

Wisconsin. Here I sit, 20 years later, with 11 less bowls. And while Wisconsin has been to 14 straight NCAA tournaments, we’ve only been to 10 in that span. This guy was so right it’s insane. He predicted greatness for a football program without a bowl in 9 seasons and a basketball team without a tournament in 46 years, and he was right.

It makes me so insanely jealous. Do you know what I would give to approach this football season worried about 8 wins instead of 10? Does anyone understand how much money I’d pay to approach a basketball season without even a hint of worry about missing the tournament? Where I could write confident blog posts discussing what seed we’d get in the tourney, not if we’ll make the tourney? You think I write a lot of words on here in my spare time as it is? Just watch what would happen if we ever had an Outback Bowl – Elite Eight season. I’d start sleep-blogging.

Which leads me back to the MGoBlog comment. Do we remind people of Michigan fans two years ago, they of one NCAA Tournament since 1998 and mired in their worst three-year stretch of football in decades? Probably. Our marquee program is mired in its worst six-year stretch of basketball in decades, and our football program struggles to keep its head above water. He’s right. We’re a depressed bunch. Well, at least I am.

But looking at it that way offers hope. Two years ago, Michigan finished 5-7 in football and 15-17 in basketball. Now, two years later, they’re coming off a BCS Bowl – Big Ten Basketball Title year. Wisconsin hadn’t been to a bowl game in 9 years nor a NCAA Tournament in 46 years, yet with the right athletic director hiring the right coaches, they’ve climbed to the top in 20 years.

I’m not suggesting we’re going to suddenly become Michigan Football. Or even that we’re going to go to 14 consecutive NCAA Tournaments like Wisconsin. I’m saying that everything is new, and this could be a dawn. I’ve really enjoyed covering Illini sports in this space the last three years, but I could REALLY enjoy it in the near future.

As I pulled in to work, I realized that I had forgotten what it felt like in 1992 to have that conversation. We were coming off the late 80′s (bowl game nearly every year, top-4 tourney seed every year), and Wisconsin was completely inept in both sports. But these things are cyclical. At some point, Wisconsin football will fade. Michigan State basketball will fade. Just a few years ago, Ohio State basketball was horrendous, and look at where they are now. Purdue football faded. Iowa football surged. Minnesota’s athletic department faded horribly. Michigan State’s surged.

And if we’re at our lowest point as an athletic department since the late 1970′s, then I’m taking that as a sign that we’re about to surge. We have a new AD and two new coaches. We have football schedules that don’t contain Missouri, Cincinnati, and Fresno State in the same year. We have loaded in-state basketball classes the next few years. We have 5-star Kendrick Nunn on campus tomorrow.

This could really get fun again. I’m excited about the possibilities. I’m excited about the chance to write about these teams when they’re surging, not when they’re tanking and firing coaches. There’s enough talent on campus to make both teams successful as we begin this build. Basketball can probably get there quicker (it always does), but we have a program-builder as a football coach who is changing the competitive culture around Illini Football and attempting to build long-term success.

It’s been dark, but hopefully dawn is breaking. Maybe the next time I check the blog links, they won’t all be “check out how depressed this Illinois fan is”. Maybe they’ll be “this guy wrote 8,000 words about an Outback Bowl victory”. Or, better yet, a random Wisconsin fan, lamenting how they’re on the way down while we’re on the way up.

So I’ll just say it this way: I don’t get it. Given what we watched the last few years (top-3 recruiting class in the Big Ten each of the last 3 years and one tourney win), it’s hard to see how the K-State AD would see that and offer him a raise. Does one tourney run seven years ago really erase the last six seasons? We paid this man millions of dollars for one tournament win in six years, and now K-State wants to pay him more?

Which leads me to this: has this ever happened?  A basketball coach in a BCS conference gets fired and then gets another top gig three weeks later?  I bounced this question around with some friends, and the only examples we could come up with were mostly all non-performance firings (Bob Huggins was fired from Cincy after a spat with the University President in the fall of 2005 and then took the KSU job in March 2006). The only example we could come up with that technically qualified was Stan Heath, who was fired after going 82-71 at Arkansas and then immediately landed at South Florida (which is, in fact, a BCS conference basketball program).

It happens in football a fair bit (there’s this guy named Ron Zook…), but rarely happens in basketball.  So how did it happen in this case?  My only theory is that the influential people around Bruce Weber (Keady, Izzo) did a fantastic job of controlling the narrative.  That, and the first three years were high enough highs that even six years of low couldn’t replace them.

Here’s what I mean.  Gene Keady after Bruce Weber got the KSU job:

“He’s one of the best five coaches in the country.”

See now that feels insulting. And when combined with Izzo’s comments at the Big Ten Tournament, it implies that Illinois fans were wrong in wanting to get a new coach, and Mike Thomas was wrong in firing the man.  Were we?  Was he?

All of this, just in the last 5 seasons:

Miami (OH) 61, Illinois 58
Tennessee St. 60, Illinois 58
Penn State 68, Illinois 64
Penn State 52, Illinois 51
Penn State 38, Illinois 33
Penn State 64, Illinois 63
Western Kentucky 76, Illinois 72
Utah 60, Illinois 58
Bradley 72, Illinois 68
Georgia 70, Illinois 67
Northwestern 73, Illinois 68
UIC 57, Illinois 54
Penn State 57, Illinois 55
Indiana 52, Illinois 49
Northwestern 71, Illinois 70
Penn State 54, Illinois 52
Minnesota 77, Illinois 72
Northwestern 74, Illinois 70
Nebraska 80, Illinois 57

And believe me, this list is cherry-picked. Those are just the games that stick out over the last 5 years as inexplicable losses. There are many, many other games we could and should have won.

So the best I can do is this.  I hope Bruce Weber listened to himself after the Purdue game.  I hope he meant it when he said he realized why his teams went south the last few years – he stopped building a program and started trying to win each game.  He didn’t build confidence and toughness and swagger – his teams exhibited fear and hesitance.  Without self-motivated leaders like Deron Williams and Chester Frazier, his teams all appeared rudderless.  If he can fix that, he can be successful at Kansas State.  If not, K-State fans will be able to produce a list like the one above.

(And just before I hit “publish post”, I see this…)

Bruce Weber, on ESPN 1000 in Chicago today:

“I think if you go back it’s probably the best nine-year run in the history of the school or at least close.”

Ummm…

Weber’s nine years were 210-101 (.675) overall. Just looking at the 1980′s (80/81 through 88/89), Lou Henson was 211-77 (.733). One less win and 24 more losses isn’t “at least close”. Six consecutive top-four seeds in the NCAA Tournament (1984 through 1989) is a tiny bit different than a 1-seed in 2005 and a 4-seed in 2006 but no other top-4 seeds the other seven years.  Best nine-year run in the history of the school?  Hardly.  Kruger years + Self years >>>> Weber years, too.

And now I’m irritated again.  Why would he even say this?  Why prop himself up with statements that aren’t true?  You break up with a girl that you stayed with for several years too long, and you wish her well and say nice things like “it just didn’t work out”, and now you hear her on the radio saying she’s the best girlfriend you ever had.  How am I supposed to react to that?  Maybe it’s just me, but my reaction is to start saying things like “um, Utah Penn State Nebraska UIC Tennessee State Bradley Penn State Western Kentucky Miami (OH) Penn State”.

OK, I need to stop. I put this Groce balm on my wound and it’s starting to heal, yet now I’m picking at the band-aid.  Actually, that’s not true.  Bruce Weber is on the radio telling me there’s not really a wound.

Good luck at K-State, coach.  I hope it works out for you.  And I really hope you listened to yourself after the Purdue game.  Because if not, more UIC’s await.

And then, a few months later, Guenther retired. And then we got a new Chancellor. And then we got a new Athletic Director. And then we got a new football coach. And then we got a new basketball coach (two of them, actually). And soon we’ll have a new President (again).

The five biggest decision makers on campus when it comes to Illini athletics – the President, the Chancellor, the AD, the football coach, and the basketball coach – and every chair has a different occupant than a year ago today. Ron Guenther was here for 19 years. Bruce Weber for nine. Ron Zook for seven. And now a new AD, FB coach, and BB coach, all in the span of 232 days. I still can’t take it all in.

I started this blog a little over three years ago, and the athletic highlight in those three years is probably the Wrigley Field win over Northwestern to make us bowl eligible. The NCAA tourney win over UNLV was probably a close second, but it becomes a more distant second when I realized that I’m saying the athletic highlight was a win in the 8/9 game of the NCAA tournament.

Push that back further, and since Dee and Augie graduated in the spring of 2006, the basketball team is 121-85 and the football team is 32-42. Six years, 280 athletic contests either playing out on my television or in front of me in person, and we won 153 and lost 127.

Let’s get a little more specific. Let’s just look at Big Ten games. Since the spring of 2006, football has gone 18-30 in the Big Ten and basketball has gone 50-56. I know I’ve probably quoted this about a dozen times in my three years, but 50-56? Illinois Basketball? 154 Big Ten conference matchups since 2006 in football and basketball, and we’re 68-86. 68-86! And everyone kept their jobs! 2,210 days since Dee and Augie walked off the court against Washington, and on only 68 of those next 2,210 days did we get to go to sleep happy.

OK, I don’t want to turn this into my 34th post on the decline of Illini athletics. This is already well documented. I’ll just make one more point and then move on: 68-86!

Where I’m going with this: this is a STARVED fanbase, both in football and in basketball. Probably more so than any of us even realize. Six years, a couple bowl wins, and one NCAA tourney win. Truth be told, those two bowl wins in six years are probably pretty good as far as the football program is concerned. But this fanbase has been waiting 20 years for the football program to simply ascend to “middle of the pack in the Big Ten”, and it still hasn’t happened. Ever since John Mackovic left for Texas, we’ve been waiting… and waiting… and waiting…

Basketball sustained us through most of those years. The run from 2000-2006, where we were third nationally in total wins over that seven year span, was as much fun as we’ve ever had. But in the blink of an eye (I’d argue that eye-blink began with Rich McBride’s three pointer being a tenth of a second too late), we’re suddenly 121-85 over a six year span. Ever since Dee and Augie graduated we’ve been waiting… and waiting… and waiting…

So today, all things are new. Every coach is new. The AD, Chancellor, and President are new. Most importantly in all of that, the basketball coach is new. As much as my football-loving self has always chosen the north side of Kirby over the south side when asked the “which one of your kids do you love the most” question, I still fully understand that Illini Basketball is king. Recapture 2000-2006, and the entire state will pay attention. Which means John Groce might not have any idea what he signed up for.

You know that scene in It’s A Wonderful Life where George Bailey sees that there’s a run on the bank, and he heads to the Building and Loan, and he talks everyone out of going to Mr. Potter for their money, and then everyone inside is just staring at him, knowing that he has to do something, immediately, to fix their problem? Yeah, it’s kind of like that. This gigantic fanbase, fresh off the worst six year stretch since the 1970′s, is now staring at John Groce. He’s the only one who can fix our problem.

And it might just be the hope talkin’, but I feel pretty good about his chances. My friend’s text over the weekend when I was awash in Stevens hope (“answer this question honestly – who would be a better recruiter in Chicago: Brad Stevens or John Groce?”) is still resonating. Today’s press conference and the surprising media fawning in the last few hours really has me thinking that Groce will be able to do the one thing that will bring Illinois Basketball back: recruit top talent, and then inspire that talent to play hard.

Return this team to the top of the Big Ten, and John Groce has no idea the outpouring of support he will receive. Join together with Tim Beckman and put together an Outback-Bowl-followed-by-Elite-Eight season in a few years, and this fanbase will explode. Mike Thomas knows this, which is why he didn’t hesitate to change both coaches after their disappointing (and stunningly similar) seasons. Build a consistent winner, and watch all 12,869,257 people in the state pay attention.

Well, maybe 12,869,254. Guenther, Zook, and Weber are gone.

“I think we need to become better branded nationally, and that starts within the state. I think we need to be the king of the state; I think we need to be the king of Chicago. I think we need to be branded that way, and if we’re doing things the right way – if we’re winning at a high level, we’re working with integrity, and our kids continue to get it done in the classroom – then our goal is to be a national brand, identifiable from coast to coast. But that really starts in the state and then we’ll work ourselves out from there.”

So, um, Mr. Thomas, about that “national brand” thing.  Looks like you’re going to have to build it from the ground up.

Illinois athletics was a national brand only one time in its history – the late 80′s.  The basketball team had a nickname everyone knew and flew to the Final Four, the football team found a top-5 ranking a few times and beat top-5 teams like Colorado and USC, and teenage me really didn’t care about anything besides getting accepted at Illinois and being in the student section when more greatness happened.  Mackovic to Texas, Bruce Pearl’s recording equipment… my five years in Champaign with one tourney win and one bowl win.

Football never recovered, but basketball did.  And in 2005, basketball was a national brand.  Dee Brown was on the cover of everything.  The Final Four in St. Louis was completely orange.  We were finally reaching our true potential.

Now, seven years later (almost to the day), we’ve received a very strong message about our national brand: we’re not there anymore.  Shaka Smart looked at a reported eight-figure raise and said no.  Brad Stevens did the same.  And that wasn’t the end of it.  The last 72 hours were the craziest few days I can remember from any Illini coaching search, with confirmations and denials and trustee leaks and press conferences that never happened.  Unfortunately, to those watching from afar – namely, college basketball fans from Storrs to Tuscon – it was a tire fire.  Nobody wanted the Illinois job, the president resigned, the main candidates all said no, and Board of Trustee members were endorsing President Obama’s brother-in-law in the press.

And to top it all off, the leading Plan C candidate wasn’t a name that got anyone excited.  When you’re trying to tell everyone that you’re a top-15 program, and the leading candidate for your job is a MAC coach who is 34-30 in-conference over his four years, well, you have to drop the “top-15″ bit.  We’re not who we though we were.

But that doesn’t mean Groce is a bad hire.  Truth is, I would have been over the moon to get Shaka in Champaign, but there’s nothing that would have guaranteed his success.  It’s a crapshoot, and everyone is trying to find the Next Big Thing.  Our national reputation took a resounding hit over the last two weeks, and my “I trust every decision Mike Thomas has made in his eight months on the job” days are over, but it still doesn’t mean John Groce is a bad hire.  In fact, he might be a great hire.  Mostly because he has shown that he can recruit (Your Honor, I would like to present “Rivals 2006 Recruiter Of The Year” as exhibit A).

Recruiting is the one thing that has kept me interested in Groce.  Just how involved was he in bringing Oden, Conley, and Cook to Ohio State?  Or was that more Matta?  This article from Rivals (when they named him RotY) seems to suggest that Groce is solid in the living room:

Michael Conley Sr., whose first meeting with Groce also came when Groce was at Xavier, deals with dozens of coaches pursuing his players every season. Conley says Groce’s approach is unique – and far more sincere than just about anyone else.

“There are a lot of smooth talkers and guys that can sell real well,” Conley said. “But Groce doesn’t come across as a salesman. He has a certain way about him that comes off as a very honest individual and that was very important to me.”

A lot of coaches don’t have Groce’s communication skills. While Matta and each of his assistants work as a group, it was Groce who was able to make connections with seemingly everyone involved in the recruiting process – regardless of their age.

“He played a huge role,” the elder Conley said. “Assistants like him are out there watching the players more than the head coach. He found a way to relate to 17- and 18-year-old kids, 40-plus-year-old parents and the high school and AAU coaches.

“Also, as persistent as he was in following up on everything from sending letters to calling at the right time and being everywhere, you never felt he was being pushy. I don’t know how he did it. Other coaches felt they had to use pressure tactics. It takes a special individual to do all that.”

The fan in me wants to cling to that article and start building rosters of 4-star recruits.  The realist in me says that getting excited over our 3rd (possibly 6th) choice is ridiculous.  Tonight, I’m leaning a little more towards B.  But if I wake up in the morning and these reports that the Groce deal is finalized are untrue, I think I’ll be a little upset at the fact that we didn’t get him.

In the end, it’s easy to rest at “crapshoot”. Just look at the Big Ten.  If you think Groce’s .531 conference winning percentage was bad, Bo Ryan had a .464 conference winning percentage at Wisconsin-Milwaukee before moving to Madison (Ryan built his reputation as a Division III head coach).  Matt Painter had one year of head coaching experience before taking the Purdue job (and no tourney wins).  Tom Izzo was an assistant. Sometimes these coaches flourish, like a Buzz Williams getting the Marquette job and skyrocketing or Jamie Dixon getting the Pitt job and sustaining what Ben Howland had built.

And other times, they burn out.  Look at John Pelphrey at Arkansas.  Recruited a lot of the Teddy Dupay Florida team that lost to Michigan State in the finals.  Got the South Alabama job and built them into a tournament team.  Got the chance to go to Arkansas and use his recruiting skills and head coaching experience to rebuild the Razorbacks.  Four years and 25-39 in the SEC later, he was fired.  And that coaching search was very similar to ours, with Dana Altman accepting the job, holding a press conference, and then returning to Creighton a few days later.  My Arkansas coworker told me today that he was excited about Pelphrey at the time – at the end of their debacle, they got a solid recruiter as their Plan C.  And then he flamed out, just like Matt Doherty or Billy Gillispie (who I thought would kill it at Kentucky).

So crapshoot it is.  I like the recruiting potential (Groce will never be a Fran McCaffery in my book, a solid coach who will likely never recruit well enough to avoid a Round of 32 ceiling – Groce has a much higher ceiling), and I like the coaching tree.  But he still started out on Mike Thomas’ “other names to possibly consider” list, and now he’ll be introduced in Champaign tomorrow or Friday.

When you don’t land your top candidates, you can’t rate the hire any higher than a seven.  When the Board of Trustees is both suggesting candidates and leaking stories to the media, the reputation hit drops you a few more points.  So while I’m hopeful that John Groce can recruit well enough (and inspire his team well enough) to build Illinois Basketball again, he certainly has an uphill battle, given the current state of our program and the tattered reputation after this coaching search.  His hiring doesn’t produce the immediate “national brand” impact that Shaka Smart would have, but his recruiting acumen can hopefully get us back there quickly.  And he can start by winning the press conference.

I have work I need to get done.  My desk here at home is a mess.  The grass is a foot long.  Illini Football is in the middle of spring practice – one of my favorite times of the year – and I can’t even spare 15 seconds to think about it.  All I can think about is the coaching search.

I just want to get to the point where I can analyze it.  I just want to know who it will be so I can spend my time researching their background.  I want to see if they’re a good fit for next year’s team.  I want to look at their recruiting history.  But all I’ve been allowed to do so far in this coaching search is to get really, really disappointed.  I need a coach in the worst way.

I’m a total hypocrite, too, because three weeks ago I couldn’t wait for the coaching search to begin.  I thought it would be fun.  And it was fun.  Until it wasn’t.

See what I mean?  Here’s the structure of the paragraph above:

Statement.
Why I thought that.
Realization that I was right.
Realization that I really wasn’t right.

This is the most useless crap I’ve ever typed in this space. I should delete this. Maybe I will. Realization that I should. Realization that I won’t.

OK, focus. A list! A list would help. Three things that confuse me about this coaching search:

1) Worst. Smoke. Ever.

Before Twitter, you could pretty much rely on “where there’s smoke, there’s fire”. Even with crazy, unsourced internet reports, you could still get a feel for what was real and what wasn’t.  If some random radio station in Minnesota is reporting that Rick Majerus has accepted the Iowa job, you remain skeptical.  If seven different outlets are reporting that their sources are saying that Mike Anderson is going to take the Arkansas job, you believe in the smoke.  There’s fire behind it.

Except now, I can think of three instances in the last two weeks where there was all kinds of smoke surrounding a certain scenario playing out… only to have nothing come of it.  Yesterday (and today) there was all this smoke surrounding an imminent John Groce announcement… and then nothing.  To the point where I now wonder if we’re even considering Groce.  I know dozens of outlets have reported it as being very close to finished, but would it surprise you at all if Ohio came out tomorrow with a statement from Groce saying he was looking forward to coaching the Bobcats in 2012/13?

Any other coaching search, that would stun me.  This one?  Par for the course.

2) Please don’t, BOT

Lots of reports today that the Board of Trustees has been heavily involved in the coaching search.  Even to the point of possibly stepping in today to stop an announcement of the hire (again, all “sources say”, but it was reported).  I’m not sure I like that.  In fact, I know I don’t like that.

Specifically, this.

Montgomery later told the Associated Press that he had recommended Theus and Oregon State coach Craig Robinson, the brother-in-law of President Barack Obama, to the university president and the chairman of the board of trustees.

Recommending candidates? OK, I’ll let it slide (I know, the BOT is so scared). Recommending a candidate who is 61-70 at Oregon State, which means the recommendation might have been political and not athletic in nature?  I don’t like it.  They’re the trustees, and they should keep on trusteeing.  Let the athletic director direct athletics.

(See what I mean about this being my worst post ever? I just said “trusteeing” and “athletic director direct athletics”.  Someone get me a coach, stat.)

3) Eyes on Maui

Whenever this coaching search is getting me down, I think of the Maui Invitational.  I’m already so excited for the Maui Invitational.  I don’t care if we hire Mary Henson, I’m going to be excited about Maui.  No, I’m not going, but the idea of seeing a new coach on the sidelines in the premier preseason tournament makes me giddy.

It’s a great field.  Besides Chaminade, the other teams are Butler, Marquette, Mississippi State, North Carolina, USC, and Texas.  Sure, we’ll sneak past Mississippi State and then get destroyed by North Carolina or something, but I’m still crazy excited about some November basketball.  And I’m a football guy.  I just can’t wait to see what the new guy brings.

Which, I guess, tells me how I’m going to feel about this new coach at the beginning.  There will be plenty of time for dissecting his offense and his rotations and his sideline demeanor in the future – between now and Maui, it’s a honeymoon. And I’m ready to get that phase started with the announcement of our new coach.

That’s going to happen, right?