Recalculating January 9, 2013
First things first. Minnesota is good. Really good. Maybe Big Ten title good. Fantastic defense, big time post players, well coached – if they don’t break that “no NCAA wins since 1997″ streak this year, I’ll eat my hat. My delicious bacon hat.
And when Minnesota gets 29 points from a guy like Joe Coleman (30 points in his last four games, 29 tonight), and when they shoot 60% from three, and when they make 42 foot spinning banked threes at the shot clock buzzer, I don’t care what we do – we’re not winning that game. Play like that, and they could win five NCAA Tournament games. (Just not six. Because I’ll intervene if Minnesota wins a basketball title before we do this decade.)
But the main feeling I’m left with after watching that is not one of “we just got beat by a much better team”. At least not entirely. I’m left to recalculate just how good I think we are.
After the Gonzaga win, I think I tweeted something like “come at us, America – we’ll play anyone, anywhere”. So that was fun.
After Missouri, I dialed it down. After Auburn, I pulled it back even more. As I looked at the start of the Big Ten season, it wasn’t hard to see 0-4. So I wrote down the nine Big Ten wins we need to get into the tournament. That’s the goal. Nine wins and a tournament bid for the team that finished last season 3-12 and was picked ninth in the Big Ten this year. We all know we’re overrated in the polls, finding ourselves in the low teens. Just find me nine wins and I’m happy.
Then we lost to Purdue, and I pulled it back even further. Can we get in with eight Big Ten wins? Probably. I even considered a post title “Eight Is Enough”. 21-11 (8-10) with wins over Butler and Gonzaga is probably enough in this Big Ten. Maybe an 11 seed, but enough. OK, just find me eight wins.
Then we beat Ohio State. With ease. And I cranked everything back up again. Can we win ten Big 10 games? Heck, if we can beat Ohio State by 20, maybe we can win 11 or 12 in the conference. Wait, if we’re 25-7 (12-6), we’re probably a protected seed. Why am I over here biting my nails and begging for eight conference wins? Most brackets have us as a three seed or a four seed right now. Why not put all my energy into finding a way for us to win 12 Big Ten games?
Oh. That. That’s why. A team like Minnesota can come in and make us look silly in our own house. When we shoot 3-24 from deep, we’ll probably struggle to beat Penn State. Three for twenty four? Can that be correct? That’s 12.5%. Twelve point five percent?
Recalculating…
Man, we’re losing to Wisconsin this weekend, aren’t we? Yep – hello 1-3 Big Ten start. OK, I’m back on the Just Get To Nine bandwagon. Let’s go through that whole list again.
at Purdue W (-1)
Ohio State L (even)
Minnesota L (even)
at Wisconsin L
Northwestern W
at Nebraska W
Michigan L
at Michigan State L
Wisconsin W
Indiana L
at Minnesota L
Purdue W
at Northwestern W
Penn State W
at Michigan L
Nebraska W
at Iowa W
at Ohio State L
OK, so we’re right on track. Shouldn’t have lost to Purdue, shouldn’t have beaten Ohio State. Alright, I’ve recalculated myself back to where I should have been the whole time. I got out of control today hoping against hope that we’d win, but when thinking with a level head, I knew we were losing this game. I think I even talked about it back in December when we were undefeated. Let me look. Yep.
I still think Minnesota beats us twice (Rodney Williams and Trevor Mbakwe will both have 23 and 15 in both games). Michigan beats us twice, too. And I can’t see road wins at Ohio State or Michigan State or even Wisconsin.
OK, I’ve fully settled back in my 9-9 groove. Next time I get out of hand I’ll make myself write some sentences on the board.
It would be a great accomplishment for this team, picked 9th, to make the tournament. Nine Big Ten wins is the goal.
It would be a great accomplishment for this team, picked 9th, to make the tournament. Nine Big Ten wins is the goal.
It would be a great accomplishment for this team, picked 9th, to make the tournament. Nine Big Ten wins is the goal.
Alright, this feels good. My internal GPS has recalculated itself and I can clearly see the map again. Fight against the big boys and maybe steal a few (like Ohio State), take care of business against the lower-half. Don’t get too high, don’t get too low. Just get in the tourney and then try to surprise some people.
Of course, if we find some way to beat a struggling Wisconsin team this weekend on the road…
Robert, I am slightly more optimistic, by one game. 10 BIG wins. IF we beat WI then we steal one on the road for a loss at home. MN looked good but we did not play well. A 30 second disaster in the second half when we were moving in to tie or take the lead compounded by a technical foul halted the big MOMENTUM. OK: We play MN 10 x and probably win 3 or 4. Regardless, this team is better than they looked vs. MN. Merge the OSU win and the MN loss and you have the messy picture of where we are. Just beat WI on the road and things will start to look up again. Lose and we are back to your 9-9 scenario. One thing I like about this team is they don’t give up and they will not wilt in future games. How many teams win when they shoot under .300 for most of the game. I was wondering, “How can we still be 6 or 4 pts down shooting less than .300! We are better than we played tonight.
Illinois will lose this weekend to Wisconsin. Then beat Northwestern at home. They’ll be sitting at 2-3 going to Nebraska. Win that game, and they can salvage the NCAA tourney. Lose it, and forget about it.
So yeah, a game at Nebraska is the game of the season for Illinois.
Weird eh?
Who picked this team 9th in the Big 10?
Nebraska, Penn State, Northwestern are really bad.
So I guess finishing ahead of Purdue or Iowa is considered overachieving?
I think you guys have a really good shot at beating us this Saturday. Badgers are really young this year, and losing Gasser pre-season is killing us now b/c we have zero leadership/experience in our backcourt. I’m looking forward to next year, but in my head I’ve already written this season off as a rebuilding year.
All I’m hoping for this year is to make the tourney so that Bo doesn’t lose that streak…
Robert I think you along with many other Illini fans have the goal of the nine wins. But I think deep down we all are hoping for 10 or 11 wins, which is not out of the question. That being said, its not like 7 wins is out of the equation either. With 9 wins we easily make the tourney and hopefully we make noise. But with 10 or 11 wins we easily surpassed expectations and feel great where this whole program is headed.
Joe John- I respect that you are not sold on this team but you act like you have to win every basketball game to be good. Losses happen, you can easily have lose 5 to 6 games a year and be a good team, that is what makes it different than football. And not every win is a blowout by 20 points, thats just how it goes. I feel like you expect perfection and the first sign of trouble you think the team is crappy.
There is a lot of fight in this team. It is fun to watch and you know they will never call it quits. As others have stated, we had no business being anywhere close in last night’s game, yet amazingly we were within striking distance time and time again. We will see this team get better throughout the season and hopefully will see a peak come B1G tourney time. Won’t need a win by then, but I think we will see the fiery nature of John Groce fully implanted in our team by that time.
We get a steal down 44-42 and are coming down on the break, Tracy turnover. So instead of a tie/lead (even after the ridiculous half court shot clock three) we’re down 4, soon to be 9. And ballgame.
I can’t remember watching a game where I thought 1 play made such an impact.
They were better. They’re the best team we’ve played all year, but have to say that I like this Illini team.
If we don’t shore up our transition defense, we’re going to lose a lot more games.
But frankly, I like our chances in a rematch with Minnesota, even if it’s at their house. They had no answer for Abrams, and if he can stay on the court, he can score 20 and have 7 or 8 assists. Paul missed a LOT of the first half with that nosebleed, and we shoot so poorly from 3 that we simply CAN’T do that again.
If we can get back on defense, and keep Abrams on the court, I think we can beat Minnesota in a rematch.
With that being said, that Minnesota team is super impressive. Strong, athletic, and when they can make a few perimiter shots, they can beat anyone. They’re going to make a LOT of teams look bad. Personally, I think they’re better than Indiana.