SOC – Indiana October 26, 2012
It’s strange trying to get back into the Friday night Stream Of Consciousness groove after a bye week. Well, I should say, after a bye week after we started 2-5. After a bye week after we started 2-5 losing five games by 17 points or more. After a bye week after we started 2-5 losing five games by 17 points or more with the last football we watched being negative two yards in the second half against Michigan’s second string defense.
It’s strange. May is always so depressing. Rantoul led to FOOTBALL led to more football led right into basketball and then March Madness followed by spring football. And then, after the spring game, a 100-day dead period. It feels like the season will never arrive. I can hardly wait until I can sit down here and type out the first SOC.
And now, seven weeks into the season, it feels like not having a game last Saturday was better than having a game. Kind of like crossing a busy street and finally making it to the median. It was exciting when I stepped off the curb, but then it was immediately terrifying. This median is great, though. No danger, nothing to worry about. The only bad part is that now we have to step out into traffic again. Worst game of Frogger EVER.
2-5. Five absolute blowout losses. I’m not really sure how the season could have started worse. Which reminds me – I looked back at the ESPN Big Ten Blog “Best Case, Worst Case” preseason post this week. Not sure why. Guess I wanted to see what Brian and Adam thought the worst case would be for this season.
Their best case scenario for this season had us beating Michigan in the Big Ten Championship Game and going on to the Rose Bowl (yes, really). Worst case said this:
They fired Ron Zook for this? Beckman finds that he’s not in Toledo anymore, as his transition to the Big Ten is a rough one. While the defense is solid, it misses Whitney Mercilus and Vic Koenning more than anyone realized. The spread system is an odd fit for a team that lacks many playmakers at receiver or running back, and neither Scheelhaase nor Reilly O’Toole is fully able to master it in a seesaw quarterback competition. Much like the second half of last year, Illinois simply can’t score, and its special-teams play hasn’t improved much.
The Beckman era gets off to a shaky start when Western Michigan — which played a close game in Champaign a year ago — springs the upset in the opener. The Illini are 0-2 after a loss at Arizona State. They rebound to win the next two but are crushed at home by a Penn State team that’s angry about all those Illini assistants sniffing around State College this summer. That begins a spiral of losing, as the next two games are blowouts on the road at Wisconsin and Michigan. Illinois beats Indiana but falls at Ohio State, drops another home game to Purdue and ends the year getting pushed around by resurgent Northwestern. The Wildcats somehow win the Big Ten and prompt Chicago to dye the river purple. Meanwhile, the Illini sit at home after a 4-8 season, wondering what the future holds.
Ouch, baby. Ouch. At this point I’d take 4-8. I’m guessing you would, too.
OK, this is getting depressing. Let’s talk Indiana game.
Yes, they’re improved. NERDstats have them #6 nationally in offensive efficiency. On the surface this looks like loss #6. But let’s dig deeper before I chalk this one up as a loss.
Our first three Big Ten opponents are a combined 10-0 in the conference. Our next three home opponents are a combined 0-9 in the Big Ten. So our schedule is going to improve.
Navy was shut out at home by San Jose State. Then, last week, they beat Indiana 31-30. Ready to wake up, offense? This might be your chance.
Indiana is the only team in the country that hasn’t lost a fumble yet. Seven games, four fumbles, they recovered them all. The 1972 Miami Dolphins of turnovers are getting ready to toast each other. Nobody goes eight full games without losing a fumble. Their luck is going to run out soon. Maybe to the tune of a four fumble game.
Jonathan Brown is getting close to 100%. Terry Hawthorne will return. Nathan Scheelhaase has been cleared to play. Hugh Thornton should be back close to 100%. This will be as healthy as we’ve been since the opener.
Indiana has won six Big Ten road games since 1995. 17+ seasons, six road wins. 6-63 on the road in conference over that span.
All of this means one thing: we pretty much have to win tomorrow. Yes, IU’s offense is greatly improved. Just like Arizona State, if they get on a roll early, this could get out of hand quickly.
But it’s Indiana. At home. And their defense is terrible. And we’re at home. Against Indiana. Who is playing on the road in the Big Ten. And we’re coming off a bye and desperately need the win. Over Indiana. At home.
Illinois 28, Indiana 24
You are such the eternal optimist, Robert, even with a steaming pile of crap team staring you in the face.
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Indiana 32, Illinois 20
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Really really hope I’m eating my words tomorrow sitting in the horseshoe.
If Illinois wins, I expect to hear a jubilant from the stands where Robert pontificates about “yep, just where I thought we’d be..heading towards 5-6 going to NW”
If Illinois loses, I would like to hear an angry Robert that lets loose on Tim Beckman. Not the indignant Robert after the Penn State game “I’m going to be here dammit no matter what”…no an angry fired up Robert that is tired of losing and says he’s off the Tim Beckman express.
Guess we’ll see what we get..
Robert, I wish I had your faith in believing this team can beat IU. I really do. However, I remain skeptical mainly because of our point total production on offense when compared to IU.
Last three games:
UI 7, 14, 0
IU 27, 49, 30
Something is dreadfully wrong with the picture. And, keep in mind that two of the teams IU played were MSU and OSU.
IU is as desperate for a win as we are. The only logical reason I can pick our boys is based on the rationale that the true Illinois team has not been seen because most of the players playing are not starters and supposedly we will have the team at full strength finally. Based on that, look out IU!
I see no reason to believe IU won’t pull our pants down today and spank our butts. They should be able to score more than 30. I don’t see a world in which we score more than 24 the rest of the way.
LaTech had a terrible defense and they stomped us by forcing turnovers. So we can’t just assume we will score on a terrible defense.
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Also, I would be wary about playing the game of “This team beat this team at home who got shut out by this team who beat this team THEREFORE we know we can score against them.” This is especially true with service academies. Teams usually only get one week to prepare for an insanely different style of play calling, blocking, and reads. That is usually (and I hate to admit this being an AF grad) why we can ever compete. Teams just either overlook us, aren’t 100% ready for triple option reads, or do just enough to stay ahead without tearing up their starters.
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I say all that to say we can take your Navy analogy in a different direction. Air Force hung with Michigan and was one awkwardly thrown pass from tying it up late. Navy recently beat Air Force in overtime. Therefore, it would seem Navy would have been able to hang with Michigan. If Indiana barely lost to Navy, Indiana also probably could have scored on Michigan. Which means they will beat us handily.
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All of this is absolutely irrelevant because this type of thinking doesn’t actually work in football. So again, I’d be careful with the line of thinking that we will score on Indiana…or even that we COULD score on Indiana. Our offense just isn’t good. I think we lose…but man I hope I’m wrong.