5 Things We Don’t Know About This Football Team September 27, 2011
There are 5 things we don’t know about this team. OK, maybe there are 19. Maybe 3. But the number 5 makes for great lists – start out strong, questionable #2, better #3, difficult-to-resolve #4, and then BAM, killer closer. I mean, who wants to read a list with 19 different items?
So here goes: Five things we don’t really have a clue about.
1. Can we stop the run?
BOOM. Starting out strong. So far we have faced a passing team, a passing team, a passing team, and, finally, a passing team. I saw some discussion on some message board somewhere talking about how we’re 5th nationally in rushing defense, only allowing 56 yards per game, and pointing to that as a reason we can stop Wisconsin. I’d point to it as a reason we won’t be prepared for Wisconsin.
Our next opponent, Northwestern, is 23rd nationally running the ball. But that’s a bit deceiving. With Dan Persa back for this game, they’re likely to return to their aerial ways. And Indiana has been struggling running the ball as well, so we’ll likely face a pass-heavy opponent in our next game as well. It’s not until Ohio State comes to town that we’ll find out of this defense can stop a run-happy offense. And that’s mostly because Ohio State can’t throw the ball to save their lives.
So can we stop the run? Our base defense this year seems to be a 3-2-6 (Trulon being #6). What will that defense do against Ohio State’s run game? Sure, we’ll bulk up to a traditional 4-3-4 look, but do we have the horses to run that defense? Do we have the defensive line depth to last 4 quarters against a ground-and-pound offense?
Fortunately, we won’t have to find out this week. Northwestern has run the ball a lot the first three weeks, but that’s mostly because their backup quarterback can’t throw – they’re not a ground-and-pound offense. But that brings up another question…
2. Can we handle a mobile quarterback?
Say Persa isn’t ready – say his listing on the depth chart is all a smoke screen and that Kain Colter will start at QB for Northwestern on Saturday. Are we ready for a mobile QB? So far this season, we’ve faced a pocket passer, a pocket passer, a pocket passer, and, finally, a pocket passer. 3-2-6 works great when you’re cutting off passing lanes and blitzing from all directions. What about when you’re facing a quarterback that can run? What if they spread us out in our zone and then scramble right to the heart of it?
If you haven’t noticed, the Big Ten is full of mobile QB’s this year. Denard Robinson will be coming to Champaign, Braxton Miller will be coming to Champaign, and Russell Wilson is no slouch when running the ball, either. How will this defense handle a mobile QB? We really don’t know yet.
3. Is this offensive line any good?
I’m hesitant to go back and look at some of the things I said about the offensive line in Rantoul. I know I said they were the strength of the team, I probably said a few things like “it’s the one thing I’m not worried about at all – this will be a fantastic offensive line”, and there’s a better than 50% chance I said something like “top offensive line in the Big Ten”.
Have we seen that? I don’t think so – not even close. Yes, we’re 14th nationally in rushing yards, but I’m wondering how that holds up in the Big Ten. Especially since we’re currently 89th nationally in sacks allowed. If we’ve given up 10 sacks against a schedule with the likes of Arkansas State and Western Michigan, will we give up 25 sacks in the Big Ten?
All of this leaves me wondering if we miss Ryan Palmer and Randall Hunt more than we thought we would (or, at least, more than I thought we would). I expected this offensive line to pick up right where we left off in Houston, and we just haven’t seen that at all.
4. Is Nathan’s shoulder an issue?
I’m the ultimate worrier (fantasy football team name alert!). We lead Northwestern 41-27, they haven’t stopped the run all game, we’re in field goal range, there’s 3 minutes left, and I still can’t celebrate. You see enough “Eddie just totally threw it right to their safety” in your day, you become a worrier.
Same with the Texas Bowl. Mikel punches across another touchdown to make it 30-14 with 7 minutes left, and I can’t exhale until the extra point goes through. If we miss that extra point and only hold a 16 point lead, I’m totally convinced we’re about to see two long Baylor drives and two 2-point conversions.
So when I hear that Nathan’s shoulder is fine, I worry that it’s not. I worry that it’s going to be an issue the entire season, limiting our budding superstar to a more reserved, run-heavy, barely-throw approach. I’m worried he’ll struggle to throw the ball this Saturday and we’ll suddenly get hit with a “Scheelhaase to miss the Indiana game to rest sore shoulder” story next Sunday.
Of course, I’m also worried we’ll miss a bowl after a 4-0 start, so take me with a giant grain of salt.
5. Do we get it?
Do we realize that you can’t just say “we learned our lesson against WMU: we can’t take any team for granted” – we have to really learn it? When we repeat Martez Wilson’s outrage at Fitzee’s “we recruit a different kind of player” claims from our game last year, do we understand that you can’t catch lightning in a bottle? That we have to be legitimately outraged to play like we’re outraged?
This is always my concern with a newly ranked team, football or basketball. Once the ranking arrives, the coaches and players will receive 200 media questions asking if they can “handle” this new-found success. And they always repeat the same answers – “we haven’t accomplished anything yet”, “we have to stay hungry”, etc.
The difference is, in my estimation, that some teams actually get it. They realize that with a ranked target and an in-state little brother headed to town, they’ll have to bring 3 times more emotion to the game on Saturday than they think is necessary. That after an embarrassment inside their purple-painted baseball stadium last year, Northwestern will arrive with legitimate revenge on their minds. That despite the fact that they gave up 300+ rushing yards to Army, Northwestern’s defense could shut down our run game this Saturday fueled by emotion alone. This is the Big Ten portion of the schedule – every game will be a dogfight.
Do we get that? Man, I hope we get that. I want to spend my holidays somewhere warm.
Points 4 and 5 are all I can focus on – congrats on the extra strong finish, Ultimate Worrier (btw, he might be the first person ever to wear the binding wraps around his biceps – now everyone does it, so give credit where credit is, well, not really worth giving – and I speak of the Real Ultimate Warrior, not Robert). Re: 4, was the Reilly O’Toole wife-swapping experiment on Saturday a way to sort of mask Nathan’s shortcomings? I really didn’t understand it at all while it was happening but I came to this as my conclusion during the game. Re: 5, we were always notorious for cracking the top 25 and then immediately falling out. We actually hung on this time but I’m afraid there is too much orange Kool-Aid being served (printed) along with the fact that we spanked NU last year. Is there any way we’re taking them as seriously as we need to? I’m guessing Persa is playing and he’s super-hyped for this game. I fear a reversion to the mean. 5-0 sounds just crazy when attached to Illini football and I sense a loss. I’m a bad fan for thinking that way, I know.
1. Yes.
2. No test yet.
3. Marginal at best.
4. Obviously.
5. No.
1. Yes 2. Probably not. 3.Kind of sort of. They’ll get better. 4.it was an issue last saturday but i dont think itll be a problem for weeks to come. 5. I hope so, only time will tell.
Ya know . . .
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You have a point about those 19 point lists . . .
Well, here are my answers:
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1) Yes, we can stop the run and will down the road when it matters. It will be the result of quality coaching and Koenning is very good.
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2) Of course we can handle a mobile quarterback, but there is a huge gap between a cagey veteran type of runner like we may see in Persa this weekend and a true running threat like we will see from Meatchicken. I am not worried about Persa’s running as they would be foolish to let him take a chance at getting injured again fresh off the layoff. So expect a game plan almost identical to the WMU plan – quick three step drops and the ball is gone on timing to prevent any pass rush and negate blitzes. Thankfully we have seen three competent variations of this attack already this season. I am more worried about well run trick plays given the two weeks of prep time Fitzee has had. FWIW, I am less confident about our ability to stop Shoelaces, mostly because he has much more talent around him. The hope is that he is dinged up once again by November. In this sense the scheduling Gods are smiling on us. First game back for Persa and Mich plays at Iowa the week before us. I will send roses to Norm Parker if he roughs Denard up.
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3) Everyone exhale about the O-line. Have they been Texas Bowl good? Not close. I am willing to give them the benefit of the doubt though, that a number of things have contributed. Heitz is thrashing to learn on the job, Palmer and Hunt were good veterans who are missed, and they just haven’t come together well yet. Having said that we are still rushing for nearly 250 per game while figuring things out.
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To me, however, the biggest reason for our failings has been the playcalling of Petrino. The B10 knows by now what plays we run in the running game, but the beauty of what we do when run well is the multiple plays that can be run from similar formations and the multiple types of runs in the playbook. Very hard to prepare for and harder still to simulate. We have iso plays, we have sweeps, we have pistol formation triple option, we have read option, we have speed option, we have trap plays. To top it all off we have Nate on designed QB draws and on freelance scrambles. This is one of the few things Zook has gotten absolutely correct. Pick an offensive scheme that is hard to defend.
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Well, Petrino has been very vanilla thus far. Also, our opposition to date has made a conscious decision to gamble on Scheelhaase’s inability to beat them deep versus allowing us to gash them repeatedly up the middle. Thus they are sticking eight or even nine in the box. Hell even Dinardo realized that in the first half last week Petrino tried to take read option (Nate’s biggest strength) out of the playbook to protect his shoulder. In the second half we had both Heitz and Simon in the game due to Lemmonier’s douchery and we still ran for nearly 200 yards just by reverting to what we are good at.
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4) So yes, obviously Nate’s shoulder is an issue. Go back and watch the WMU tape. Partly due to growing pains (read Heitz) in the pass blocking, partly due to well timed blitzing, partly due to Nate favoring his shoulder, he is simply not going through his progressions and rarely finding a second option beyond a check down. I wish I could see the film the coaches have because the B10 single camera view usually sucks and misses the receivers more than five yards from the line of scrimmage. One thing I did notice is that often three Illini receivers run patterns and they are all within ten yards of the line of scrimmage. Petrino has definitely been protecting Nate. Heaven forbid he could have had more time at game speed to work on his progressions. The solution is more rest and it is surely not to bring in O’Toole only in passing situations. That is too much of a telegraph. Let’s hope we see NU overcommitting to stop the run and a few well timed deep balls that beat their secondary.
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5) Do we get it? No chance we truly get it. For once I agree with Tate. NU seems to always be up for this game than the Illini. Yes it is irritating to those who bleed orange and blue. Yes to many of us NU, the coach, the players and the fans are often arrogant (though this is also partly our own insecurities that we have been denied our place at the Big 10 football big boy table for so long). And Fitzee is the poster child for the arrogance despite being from Palos Heights, not Winnetka. He is probably pissed we didn’t recruit him and he is also super competitive. I have to give him credit that despite his smugness, he has done a great job motivating his guys to play well against us.
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But, I am going to look beyond the emotional disadvantage we will face and the absolutely monumental schematic disadvantage Zook’s indescribable brutality at coaching special teams forces upon us (save FGs). The fact is that there is one nearly immutable aspect of college football can’t be schemed away completely. The game is won in the trenches. The team that runs the ball and stops the run usually wins. But, but, but you say we have struggled running the ball! Bullshit, I respond! This is more about the Wildcats than it is about us.
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To wit, here are NU’s stats since and including our domination at Wrigley:
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11/20/10 ILL 70 rushes, 519 yds (7.4 per)
11/27/10 WIS 54 rushes, 329 yds (6.1 per). WI 559 total yards offense.
1/1/11 TTU 29 rushes, 183 yds, (4.6 per). TTU threw 56 times
9/3/11 BC 30 rushes, 104 yds, but they are just awful. BC had 479 total yards.
9/10/11EIU 26 rushes, 132 yds, D2 team, nuff said. EIU had 341 total yards & suck.
9/17/11 ARMY 75 rushes, 381 yds (5.1 per, 6 passing yds).
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I submit to you the stats from the last six games of NU going back to the Wrigley massacre. Throw out EIU and NU has given up over 1,500 rushing yards against FBS teams in their last 5 games. Fair in that there is an all passing game (TTU) with an all running game (Army) in the stats. What exactly would lead anyone to believe that NU can all of a sudden stop teams from rushing it down their throats? We all heard Petrino’s quote this week in response to the “NU recruits a different type of player” BS. His quote, “”It should make our kids mad. I don’t know what they meant, but I’d say we have a bunch of great kids. By (Fitzgerald) saying that obviously he doesn’t think we have good kids. That’s good. We’ll go find out again.”
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Let me translate – “we will beat your asses running at will until you cry for your mommies”. NU has simply not shown me how we don’t rush for whatever we want on Saturday. I am pretty sure they are the same team at the core that we faced at Wrigley. If our players don’t get it I believe that Petrino does. 50 rushes by the Illini Saturday for over 300. That will happen and we won’t lose.
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Illini 34 – Kittycats 23
Robert, I looked back over last season real fast, and the Kittycats only beat ONE team with a winning record….ONE…and that was with this almighty Dan Persa at the helm through most of the season. I point this out, and just wanted to get your prospective on the stat/analysis. So, what do you think?
I hate to say it brandoncantu, but to get to our bowl last year, the only team of note that we beat was Penn State (and they were really in the midst of an identity crisis at QB at the time). Throw out NIU and SIU and we feasted on Indiana, Purdue and, yep, patsy-playing Northwestern. And we didn’t lose our QB at all during the year. I hear what you’re saying and sort of agree with you. I just wish we could make that claim with our own chests puffed out a little more.