With the rumors swirling last night that the Big Ten would announce their divisions this evening, I had two fears when I woke up this morning.  OK, three, with one being Blaine Gabbert having 6 seconds to throw on every down this Saturday.  But the Big Ten realignment fears were twofold: Would we be placed in the Group Of Death, and, more specifically, would the realignment destroy what was a very promising 2011 football schedule?  The latter I wrote about a few weeks ago…

That feeling that just hit your gut? Yep – hit mine too. Here’s the scenario that scares me to death:

We struggle at the beginning of 2010. The new schemes, the freshman QB, the difficult schedule – it’s ugly for 6 weeks. But in the second half of the season, things start to take shape. We start winning a few close games, the players start grasping the new schemes more and more, and we finish the season on a little roll. We look around, realize that nearly everyone is coming back, and start ramping up for what might be a nice little 2011. Excitement returns, but then someone taps us on the shoulder and reminds us of the revised Big Ten schedule, which could read…

Iowa
at Penn State
Wisconsin
at Michigan State
at Ohio State
Northwestern
at Michigan
Nebraska

Let’s break down each fear and see how we did.

Divisions

As you have certainly seen by now, here’s the teams we’ll be playing year in, year out, for eternity:

Ohio State
Penn State
Wisconsin
Indiana
Purdue

I’ll take it.

My first reaction is that I would have rather been paired with Michigan and Nebraska. Ohio State is an unstoppable force right now, and Penn State is showing no signs of slowing down. Both Michigan and Nebraska have been through multiple “wow – no bowl?” seasons recently, and I’d love to fight them for a shot at the new championship game instead of OSU and PSU.

But that’s just 2010 talking. Say these divisions were put together 10 years ago. Penn State was coming off their first losing season in 13 years, and the cries for JoePa to retire were growing strong. Ohio State was in the middle of a 6-6, 8-4, 7-5 stretch, while Michigan was 9-3 and three years removed from a National Championship. Speaking of National Championships, Nebraska had won three in the 90′s and was in the middle of a nine year run where they finished in the top-10 eight times. If these divisions were announced 10 years ago, we’d be throwing so-you’re-saying-there’s-a-chance parties.

Overall, I think the Big Ten did a fine job with the divisions. As my boy Lindsey Willhite pointed out, the two Big Ten divisions have equal .580 winning percentages since 1993.  That’s pretty well done.  Sure, we have to face Penn State and Ohio State every year, but we also get Indiana and Purdue every year.  And we get a bonus.  As “protected rivalries” go, we’re pretty lucky to have Northwestern.  Sure, they may be on a nice little two year run, but big picture, I’ll absolutely take that yearly game.  Point #20 of the 19 Point Plan – make it our goal to keep the program above Indiana, Purdue, and Northwestern.  Consistently beat these three teams every fall and schedule ourselves three wins in the non-conference… BOOM, yearly bowls.  Get to that point and then we can start thinking about upsetting Wisconsin or Penn State and winning 8 or 9 games.

2011 Schedule

This could have been so much worse.  With four winnable September non-conference home games next fall, I was totally expecting to get screwed and have to deal with the nightmare schedule listed above.  Instead, Nebraska has to.  (Seriously, replace “Nebraska” with “Minnesota”, and that’s their conference schedule for their first two years in the Big Ten. Welcome Cornhuskers!)

The first 6 games in 2011?

9-3 Arkansas State
9-10 South Dakota State
9-17 Arizona State
9-24 Western Michigan
10-1 Northwestern
10-8 @ Indiana

Yes, seriously. Are my eyes deceiving me, or do I see a punchers chance at a 6-0 start? Depending on whether Northwestern takes a step forward or a step back this fall, we might be favored in all 6 games. 6-0 OHIO STATE VS. 6-0 ILLINOIS IN CHAMPAIGN SATURDAY OCTOBER 15TH, 2011 WITH ESPN GAMEDAY IN TOWN MARK YOUR CALENDARS NOW.

*takes breath, collects self*

Let’s just get back to a bowl first. Heck, let’s just go to our first non-BCS bowl since Clinton was in office. With the full 2011 schedule, I think we can get there. Our last 5 games are at Purdue, at Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin, at Minnesota. (At Minnesota, in their new outdoor stadium, after Thanksgiving? Yikes.) That’s probably a 2-4 finish (or maybe 1-5), but hey, rattle of the first 6, and we’re talkin’ Gator Bowl, baby.

(Slow Down. Baby Steps. Breathe.)

Overall, it’s fairly comparable with our first 2011 schedule. We kept Wisconsin and Northwestern home games, held on to Indiana and Purdue road games, and swapped at Iowa, Michigan State, at Michigan, Penn State for at Minnesota, Ohio State, at Penn State, Michigan. All in all, an OK trade. I don’t like getting Ohio State back on the schedule, but at least it’s at home. And instead of at Michigan and home for Penn State we’re home for Michigan and at Penn State. Add to that a game at Minnesota instead of a game at Iowa and, well, I’ll take it. What could have been disastrous turned out to be just OK.

Whew.