My friend Douglas sent me an email about something I wrote in Rantoul.  Just like last time, I decided to take our email conversation and make it a post – a very long post.  Doug’s words are in regular type, mine are in bold.  Because it’s my site, and I can make my words look more intimidating if I want to.  OK, Doug’s question, and then my response, and then, well, you get the idea…

“Sanni strong and Henry free.”  Is this a typo? Or do we use the strong and free safeties differently than most teams? It is hard for me to image our best “run stopper” safety (per the coaches) who has questionable footspeed and pass coverage skills playing FS.

Koenning doesn’t use the terms “strong” or “free”. And their duties are different than our safeties last year. But yes – when lined up on the field, Sanni is lined up off of the Sam linebacker’s shoulder, and Henry is opposite side.

He did mention that he wants to flip them all around at practice to get experience each side, so maybe they switch around, but from everything I saw, it was Sanni strongside, Henry free.

What is interesting about this alignment is that we seem to be loading up on strong side speed. Bussey is the strong-side LB, really a LB-safety hybrid. Then a fast guys like Sanni are behind in the secondary. Meanwhile, two of our best run stoppers, Ian Thomas and Trulon Henry (reported to be our “run stopping” safety) are lined up on the weakside. It almost seems like we are daring the opposition to run to the strong side. I wonder if this is what Koenning did at KSU and Clemson or if this is an adaption to existing talent.

Overall, Henry and Sanni are not going to be the best pass-coverage safeties in the Big Ten.

I’m not sure where you read that Trulon was our “best run-stopping safety” – I’m not sure if I agree. That was his reputation coming out of Juco – “is he a safety or is he a linebacker?” – but that’s not what I’ve seen on the field. I think he’s better at reading and reacting to pass plays than Shoop.

Granted, there’s the possibility that Henry grades out better at pass-D because Sanni gets a 4.4 (out of 10) and Henry gets a 5.1 or something. So you might be right; these two safeties might be on the low end of the Big Ten. Any time both of your safeties are making their first start in the same game, you expect trouble. Of the 5 positions on defense (DE, DT, LB, CB, S), I think safety probably ranks last.

In fact – that’s a good topic for discussion. I would rank those 5 positions this way:

1. Cornerbacks – Should be top-3 in the conference. Definitely #1 in 2011 (*ducks*).
2. Defensive Tackle – I’ve seen enough from Akeem Spence this camp to know that he can be a decent compliment to Liuget’s awesomeness.
3. Linebackers – Martez returns, Bussey and Thomas with a full year of experience.
4. Defensive Ends – Nurse will have a solid senior year; absolutely no idea what we’ll get out of Buchanan or Palmer (Or Mercilus. Or Staples.)
5. Safeties – Speaking of having no idea what we will get….

Yours?

I heard that Koenning saw Henry as our best run stopping safety quite a few times from multiple reporters and I THOUGHT from Koenning himself (but can’t confirm, so it might be my imagination).

My defensive position ranking would be the same except that I might go out on a limb and rank the DE’s ahead of the LB’s. As good as Nurse played last year, he is facing some stiff competition from Mercilus and Staples. The fact that Staples is at the rush end (he played WR in high school) suggests that they really like Buchanan and Palmer at the Bandit. We have some terrific athletes at DE and Koenning’s defenses have always seemed to bring out the best in that position.

On the flip side, I think there are more LB questions than most acknowledge. Bussey is experienced, but has never been a particularly good LB. Thomas is good against the run, but is undersized and struggles in pass coverage. And I’ve been expecting great things from Martez Wilson for too long. Until he delivers in live game action, I’ll have doubts. Looking at the second string, I’m not excited.

The development of the LB’s and safeties is the key to this defense. Will they make plays, against the run and pass?

To find the weak spots on a defense, I always rank the players 1-11. Somebody has to be at #10 and #11, either because of past struggles or inexperience. I would rank the defense like this:

1. Corey Liuget
2. Terry Hawthorne
3. Tavon Wilson
4. Martez Wilson
5. Clay Nurse
6. Ian Thomas
7. Nate Bussey
8. Michael Buchanan
9. Trulon Henry
10. Akeem Spence
11. Supo Sanni

The last 5 tell me that we might struggle with getting pressure on the QB and tracking multiple receivers. Neither safety has started one single game – that’s always a problem. Our corners can control the edges, but will the middle of the field look like Denario Alexander against us last September?

The good news is, I think we can create some turnovers. After two years of struggling to create turnovers, even in our own scrimmages, we’ve seemingly already started to improve under Koenning. Bussey and Tavon Wilson had interceptions in the spring game. Hawthorne and Sanni had interceptions in the Rantoul scrimmage. Yeah, it’s just a scrimmage, but Wilson and Hawthorne made interceptions that we never seemed to make last year – readjusting to an underthrown ball. Hopefully, this means our awareness is better.

Another positive: With Henry beating out Bellamy, we’re down to two seniors on defense (Bussey, Nurse), and only four seniors on offense (Fayson, McGee, Hunt, and Palmer). So, allowing ourselves to peek ahead to next year a little bit, Ashante Williams and Earnest Thomas fight over Bussey’s spot, and Whitney Mercilus and Justin Staples fight over Nurse’s spot – that’s it. The rest of the defense returns. I’ll be expecting a huge leap from the defense next year.

On offense, Corey Lewis returns to hold down right tackle (a starting job he would have had this year), Jack Cornell replaces Randall Hunt (something he might do this year), and we lose Eddie and Jarred but can pick our receivers from a list that includes Jenkins, Ramsey, Hull, Sykes, Millines, and Lankford. And maybe even a little Black Cat. The offense should be greatly improved next year as well.

What’s my point? None, really. Just wanted to inject a little excitement. Rantoul left me slightly down.

I’d generally have the same list. But I also like to stratify:

Have it all, NFL potential:
Liuget
Hawthorne
T Wilson

Proven solid:
Clay Nurse
Ian Thomas
Nate Bussey

Inexperienced but very promising:
Buchanan
Spence
Henry

Weak Link:
Sanni

It is hard to know where to put Martez. You would hope that he lands in the top “NFL” class, but based upon past production probably belongs in the “solid starter” class until he shows something special in an actual game. Strata assignments are fluid, so guys like Buchanan, Spence and Henry might rank above the solid guys by the end of the season.

My major concern is with Sanni. I’m just not convinced that he is a D1 safety, and the problem with defense is that a weak link can undermine the whole defense. If you have a weak WR, you can just not throw to him very often. But a weak link on defense will be picked on. That is why I really wish they would have moved a WR or RB into the secondary. As good as Hawthorne is as a CB, he would be all-big ten at free safety.

Finally, yes things should be much better for 2011. I’m just not sure the program can sustain the necessary positive momentum if we don’t win THIS year.

I agree. I try not to think about it, in fact.

Win 6 this year, go to a minor bowl, Zook has something to sell again, we top off this class with a few 4-stars and a rock solid left tackle (I’m looking at you, Chris Bryant), and we have enough momentum and talent to sustain the program going forward. A solid 2011 gives us the chance start recruiting like it’s 2008 again.

Or…

Win 4 this year, no bowl, Zook can’t sell three straight losing seasons, we finish with a recruiting class ranked at the bottom of the Big Ten again, and even if the senior-heavy 2011 team leads us back to a bowl, talent might have fallen so far behind our Big Ten brethren that we can’t sustain any momentum. 2011 just becomes 2007, or 2001, or 1999 – a one hit wonder. And I’m so sick of one hit wonders.

So yes – 2010 is vital. 6 wins could do wonders. And my biggest concern in getting there isn’t the defense – it’s the offense.

Can Ryan Palmer and Randall Hunt pass block? Will defenses respect Nathan’s arm enough so we won’t just see 9 in the box killing the run game? Can Jarred Fayson or Eddie McGee play a decent second fiddle to Jenkins? Is Evan Wilson the real deal? Are dumb penalties and poor clock management a thing of the past?

(These questions are mostly rhetorical, Doug. But if you wanted to answer a few of them, I wouldn’t mind…)

We finally disagree on something. My primary concern is with the defense. That concern isn’t based on the scrimmage or the depth chart (though I have concerns about both), but is really rooted in history. We haven’t had good defenses since Tepper was fired. For 15+ years our defenses have been “okay” in the very best years, and dismal in other years. Our offense wasn’t very good last year but at least we had a few bright spots in the running game. Our defense was completely dismal.

Part of my concern with the defense has to do with the offense. In 2007, we had the 7th best offense in the Big Ten. That was enough because our defense was (a) stingy and (b) made big plays with key turnovers. Similarly, I don’t think we will have a high scoring offense this year. If all goes well, we will be able to control the ball, hit a few big plays, be efficient in the red zone, come out ahead on turnovers, and score 24 pts/game. So to win our defense needs to be solid, not give up the big play, and generate turnovers. No matter how many WR we have on the roster, this team won’t be able to outscore the opposition as we did with Turner’s best teams. If we have one blown coverage per game, that 7pts will be the difference between a winning and losing season.

You take the offense and I’ll take the defense and I’ll get to The Dallas Football Classic before ye.

I think it’s mostly because I’m more sold on Koenning than I am Petrino. I think they’re both serious upgrades, but I think Koenning has a better track record of turning units around. Well, I don’t think he has a better track record – I know he has a better track record (mostly because Petrino doesn’t have one). I probably get too preachy with this, but Petrino has yet to make one play call in his life. Will he abandon the run? Will he stretch the field? Will he get conservative in the red zone? We have no idea, because he’s never called a game. Nobody knows what he will do, because nobody has seen him coordinate an offense apart from his brother. Which is why he didn’t get the Marshall head job, which is why he’s in Champaign. I’m thrilled to have him, but the jury is certainly out.

All of that to say this: It will take some time, but by next season, I think Koenning take these players and put together one of the better Illini defenses the last 15 years. That’s certainly not saying much, as you pointed out, but I think the talent is there for this to be a really good defense in 2011. And they might get there a bit early at the end of this season. Missouri, Ohio State, Penn State? I think Koenning will lose 3 years off his life. But by the end of the season, I can really see this defense coming around.

Let me clarify something: when I’m saying “solid defense”, I don’t mean that in the Ohio State sense. We don’t have the athletes to be that kind of top-end D. I’m saying that Koenning’s defenses have always excelled at 1) Giving up field goals instead of touchdowns, and 2) Forcing turnovers. His defense led all of college football in interceptions at Troy, so Clemson hired him. He had a top-25 defense for 4 years at Clemson until his head coach was fired, so he went to K-State. He improved their scoring defense from 110th to 46th in one year (without many starters back). The track record is there, and he has more talent here than he did at K-State.

The quotes scare me – the “these guys don’t know basic fundamentals that I learned in 6th grade” kind of stuff from last spring. And he looked like a defeated man after the Rantoul HS Scrimmage, sitting down to do his interviews. So this might be the biggest reclamation project of his career. But I really think the pieces are there, for the solid (not spectacular) just-enough-turnovers-forced defense you desire.

I agree with everything you said about Koenning. He is as proven as they get for a coordinator. What concerns me is exactly what you said: Koenning’s defeated look after the scrimmage. He also shared a
deep concern about the secondary this summer, a concern he didn’t have about the DL or LB. Guenther was concerned enough about the secondary to bring it up with Zook.

As for the Petrino situation, my sense is that everyone has deluded themselves into thinking we hired Bobby Petrino to run our offense. Toss in the fact that Paul is very articulate and energetic, and you can see why everyone is so caught up with the notion that we will have a high scoring offense. And we MIGHT have a high scoring offense. But even if we don’t, hopefully we hand the ball to LeShoure enough to
keep the chains moving (something it took us half a season to figure out last year).

You know, having time to reflect, I am beginning to see my disappointment from a different perspective. Our team finished 3-9 last year with frequent blow outs. Our returning players haven’t been well coached in their
entire college careers. We have suffered damaging attrition due to poor evaluations of recruits beyond athletic measureables, and as a result there are a lot of inexperienced players in the two-deep. Finally, we now have a mostly new coaching staff with completely new schemes on both sides of the ball.

Of course we aren’t very good right now! Duh! It was foolish of me to expect anything different. It is bloody hard to remain patient after 20 years of losing football.

IF we don’t suffer major injuries, AND the coaches are all we hope they can be, PERHAPS we will start to see a good team on the field by mid-season. If we want to go bowling it will require scratching out a few “ugly” wins early in the season, staying healthy for a second half stretch run and somehow keeping the team thinking positively when early losses mount (competitive losses would really help in that regard).

The thing we need – the one thing that is an absolute must if we want to have a surprising, minor-bowl season – is the Turnover Fairy. She needs to show up and bless us the way she gifted Minnesota in 2008 (something like +19 in turnover ratio their first 8 games of the season).

If you’re not familiar with the Turnover Fairy, my theory is this: Turnovers are 19% defensive talent, 34% defensive scheme, and 47% blind luck gifted from above by the Turnover Fairy. Tipped interceptions? Turnover Fairy directs where they will go. Fumble bouncing wildly on the turf? My girl TF. Broken-up pass floats in the air and falls into the arms of an offensive lineman who falls forward into the endzone for the game winning two point conversion? Yeah, she sucks sometimes.

When Oklahoma went to the championship game in 2008, they fumbled 16 times on the season… and lost TWO. The aforementioned 2008 Gophers started 7-1 with that inflated turnover margin. The Turnover Fairy then turned her back, and they lost their last 5 games by an average of 22 points. Here’s the killer stat: In 2008, Illinois and Texas were tied for 113th in interceptions with 6. 2009? Texas was #1 in the country with 25 interceptions. Illinois? Tied for last with only 5.

So the #1 thing I want from Vic Koenning is for him to put our defense in position to accept gifts from the Turnover Fairy. She owes us – we’ve had awful luck on that end for two straight seasons. (Worth noting – she was really good to us in 2007. As in, no way we beat Penn State in 2007 without four (4!) Anthony Morelli turnovers in the last 16 minutes of the game.) I just want an opportunistic defense that swarms so that when the ball is bouncing, or when the pass is tipped, we’re coming up with it.

Koenning was a DC at Troy, Clemson and KSU from 2003-09. Over that period, here are the numbers of INT’s garnered by his defenses annually: Troy 16, 25; Clemson 14, 14, 16, 19; KSU 13. Either luck is less of a factor than you think or Koenning is a very lucky man! Given that this is Koenning’s first year at Illinois, based on previous year 1 INT’s, I’m guessing that we will pull in 13-16 INTs, or roughly 1 more INT per game than last year. If we are getting stomped this extra INT won’t make a big difference, but if we can play teams close this is the difference between winning and losing.

That 2007 team: (a) decent pass rush; (b) superb secondary; and (c) a ball control rushing offense that often put the opposition in a position of having to throw late in the game.

I loved that 2007 secondary. Vontae, Kevin Mitchell, and my Second Most Underrated Illini of the Decade (Antonio Davis is #1): nickelback Justin Sanders. Sanders was great in the nickel that year. Segue alert!

Speaking of nickelbacks, did you see the video of Zook after practice the other day where he called Nate Bussey a nickelback? There’s your answer as to why Earnest Thomas isn’t practicing with the safeties – Koenning see’s the Sam Linebacker as more defensive back than linebacker. Bussey this year, then Ashante Williams and Earnest Thomas next year. I like how that sets up.

OK Doug, I think we’ve covered just about everything. One last thing: Which #2 are you more excited about this fall: Nathan or Martez?

Nathan or Martez. Boy that is a tough question. There has been a lot of talk lately about how Martez Wilson played DE in high school and therefore has had a lot to learn about playing LB. So I decided to go back and watch his high school highlights. First of all, I was surprised to see that he has pretty good hands as a WR. Secondly, if the clips available on the internet are representative, Martez played all over in high school. Sometimes he was on the line, other times as a LB. Sometimes he blitzed and other times he dropped back into coverage. But over all I saw clip after clip of Martez Wilson running unblocked to the QB or RB. That has also been Martez at his best as an Illini, using his great speed to run down plays. If fans are expecting Martez to be J Leman with speed this year, they will probably be disappointed. Unless Koenning has completely reinvented Martez, he just isn’t very good in traffic. But perhaps Vic has devised schemes to shield ‘Tez, letting him chase the ball sideline to sideline or shoot a gap on delayed blitzes. Think poor man’s Brian Urlacher or Andy Katzenmoyer in his first few years at OSU (they gave the “Cat” more responsibility later and he didn’t do as well). Martez Wilson could be fantastic in a scheme that keeps him out of traffic.

I have been wondering about whether we (the fan base) have been expecting too much from Nathan Scheelhaase. Don’t get me wrong, I love his leadership, maturity, athleticism and potential. But might
we be expecting too much from Nathan this fall, his first year of live college football? Then I did some googling on Brad Smith. Interestingly, there were a lot of doubts about Smith based upon his mediocre performances in spring practice and fall camp. But when they took off the red jersey for the Illinois game he became a completely different player. We couldn’t tackle the guy.

I’m going to go out on a limb and predict a Brad Smith “light” redshirt freshman campaign for Scheelhaase (I don’t think he is as good a runner as Smith, but not that far off). LeShoure and Ford will bring the thunder and Nathan will provide the complementary lightning.

Who excites me more? Nathan Scheelhaase. But I have to acknowledge the possibility of Martez Wilson having a monster campaign if used properly. (No, I don’t want any syrup with that waffle!)

I agree – I’m more excited about Nathan. But that’s mostly due to two factors: 1) He’s a quarterback, and everyone always wants to see the new quarterback. Heck, in the last decade, we’ve only gotten to see, what, 4 QB’s? (Kittner passed off to Beutjer, who temporarily dumped off to Pazan/Bower/Brasic before giving the ball to Juice). And 2) He’s a freshman. We think we already know what we get with Martez, but Nathan is an enigma, wrapped in a riddle, shrouded in mystery. As you mentioned, he could come out and pull a Brad Smith and suddenly I’m writing the liner notes for my first book: “50 – The 50 Games Started By The Greatest Illini Quarterback Of All Time”.

(Sorry – it’s August.)