So the Big Ten is going to expand.  We know that.  And it might go to 16 teams.  We know that.  And there’s a chance that 4 conferences expand – say, maybe the Big 10, Pac 10, ACC, and SEC – each of them growing to 16 teams, and these 4 powerconferences dominate anything and everything in college athletics, eventually breaking off from the NCAA and holding their own 64-team basketball tournament every March and setting up their own 8-team football playoff.  OK, that we don’t know, but I’d say there’s a decent chance that’s where we’re headed.

So where does that leave little ol’ Illinois?  We’re in the catbird seat, yes?  We’re in the conference that will expand first, mostly because no school would accept an invitation from any other conference if there’s a chance Uncle Jim and his $30+ million in TV money might call. So we’re good, right?  Yes. Mostly. We’re definitely not going anywhere.

But what will the conference look like?  As an Illinois fan, I like sticking it to Michigan in the Big House and hitting a 35 foot buzzer-beater to win at Indiana.  So what if the first one never happened again, and the second only happened once every 4 years?

Yes, really.

Allow me to play out a scenario.  The Big Ten expands to 16 teams next June.  Added to the conference are Texas, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Syracuse, and Rutgers, with conference play to begin in the fall of 2012. (Given the way information has been “reported” on this issue, I’m sure a Cedar Rapids TV station will broadcast tomorrow that a “published report” has stated that these 5 schools will be officially invited).  The Big Ten splits into two divisions, East and West.  They are as follows:

Big Ten East
Michigan
Michigan State
Indiana
Purdue
Ohio State
Penn State
Syracuse
Rutgers

Big Ten West
Illinois
Notre Dame
Northwestern
Wisconsin
Iowa
Minnesota
Nebraska
Texas

Looks great, right?  Basketball dominance from now until World War IV in 2067.  Let’s break it down further.

Football schedules are as follows: 7 conference games (the other 7 schools in your division) and 5 non-conference games (just like the Big East does it now).  The winner of the Big Ten East and Big Ten West meet in Lucas Oil stadium for the conference title and every ticket-holder gets a free gold bar at the gate.  Money is pouring in, the Big Ten Network is added to cable lineups in Clackamas, Oregon, and every Big Ten school has the recruiting budget to provide every assistant coach with their own private jet.

But if our yearly schedule is Nebraska, Texas, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Notre Dame, what about games at Ohio State?  What about having Penn State visit Memorial Stadium?  Could a scenario exist where we simply never played any of those schools in football again?  Absolutely.

Basketball, you say?  18 game schedule, home-and-home with TX, NB, MN, IA, NW, WI, and ND, and 4 games against schools from the Big Ten East, rotating bi-annually (home, then away the next year, then switch to the other 4 teams for two years).  Those deafening rivalry games with Michigan State at Assembly Hall?  Once every 4 years.  An entire season of Big Ten basketball without playing Indiana, Purdue, or Michigan State even once?  Yep – could happen.

OK, enough hysterics (Scheduling Michigan as a non-conference opponent just to play in the Big House again! Home-and-home with Nebraska becoming a highlight on the basketball schedule!) There’s many, many rivers to cross before we get there.

But I said all of that to say this:  Just because we won’t be changing conferences doesn’t mean our athletic landscape isn’t about to change dramatically (Did I say that right?  Wasn’t that, like, a triple-negative?).  We’ll still be in the Big Ten, but the new Big Ten might look just as new to Nebraska as it does to Illinois.  Rivalries like Michigan-Ohio State and Indiana-Purdue are certain to be preserved, which means a dividing line of Lake Michigan is likely.  And if that happens, rivalry games with Michigan, Ohio State, and Indiana will be few and far between, if at all.

Yes, there’s a chance the Big Ten expands South and West only and Northwestern and Illinois get tossed in the East.  Yes, the conference could expand to only 14 (or 12) teams and the majority of our rivalry games would remain intact.  Yes, there could be four 4-team divisions (think NFL) that rotate so that everyone plays everyone every three years.  Heck, Jim Delany said this morning that there’s a chance the conference could look at all of this and decide against expansion entirely.  A hundred scenarios exist.

But a few of those scenarios put us in a really strange looking division of a strange looking conference, and that has me concerned.  We’ll be in the most powerful collegiate athletic conference in the land.  But will we even recognize it?