Part II.  The Defense.  In case you missed it, Part I of this “how will our players fit with the new coordinators?” miniseries was yesterday.  Right to it:

Players benefiting from the change: Ashante Williams, Michael Buchanan, Miami Thomas, Corey Liuget, Joelil Thrash
Players hurt by the change: Russell Ellington, Supo Sanni, Travon Bellamy, Whitney Mercilus, Nate Bussey

Vic Koenning is harder to read than Paul Petrino, mostly because he runs a defense very similar to the Zook defense. (Stop it.  Don’t do it… seriously, why would you stab yourself in the eye with a pen?)  When I say “similar”, I mean in formation, not playcalling.  I think he does believe in bend-but-don’t-break (BBDB) defense, but with one purpose: more opportunities to force a turnover.  His defenses, from Troy to Clemson to Kansas State, have always been high on the turnovers list.  All four of his Clemson defenses were top-25 in interceptions, and his K-State defense improved from 75th to 34th in INT’s.  His last defense at Troy?  #1 in the country with 25 interceptions in 2004.  Illinois last year?  Tied for dead last with 5.  Illinois the year before?  Tied for 113th with 6.

Last year at K-State, Koenning and Chris Cosh ran a base 4-2-5 scheme.  This is similar to our defense the last three or four years against spread teams – we would drop a linebacker and bring in a hybrid corner/safety. Against running teams, we would go back to a 4-3-4.  That might not be the case with Koenning. I think he likes to find a guy who can fill both needs – run support and pass protection – and play him nearly every down.  This likely means only two linebackers on the field in every situation except for short yardage and goal-line.

The guy I think Koenning might love is Ashante Williams.  I thought he played pretty well for his first season on the field.  In my book, he was an upgrade over Travon Bellamy at the nickel.  For a little guy (5′-11″), he can really hit.  And I think that’s what Koenning will be looking for at that “5th defensive back” position – a hitter who is quick enough to cover slot receivers. Big offseason for Ashante.

Koenning also mentioned at his press conference that he wants defensive players who will “fly around like their hair is on fire”.  This is probably good news for the two cornerbacks I saw take the most chances in Rantoul – Miami Thomas and Joelil Thrash.  Disch/Mallory went with the “safer” picks at corner (Wilson and Hicks) to start the season – many forget that Miami was second string when he went down with the injury.  And although I can’t find it right now, there was an article back during camp about how Miami “took too many chances” and needed to play his assignments better.

I think Koenning changes that.  He says he lives for turnovers, and although he plays a BBDB defense, he wants guy who will fly to the ball.  If he can come all the way back from injury, I think Miami plays a lot (and Thrash gets solid minutes, too).

I also get the sense that Koenning doesn’t mind smaller defensive ends if they are playmakers.  His starting defensive ends at Clemson in 2008 went 245 lbs and 235 lbs.  He rotated two weakside defensive ends at K-State who were listed at 253 and 239. (Conversely, Doug Pilcher and Clay Nurse were listed at 265 and 260 this past fall).  This is likely good news for currently-only-225-pounds sophomore-to-be DE Michael Buchanan.  This team needs a pass rusher if we’re going to pick off more passes, and reading the tea leaves, I think Buchanan might have a better chance than Whitney Mercilus to be the DE opposite Clay Nurse.

The 4-2-5 will also be bad news for some of the linebackers.  If we do play only two linebackers 80% of the time, that means reduced minutes for someone.  Most likely, it will be the Will Linebacker combo of Nate Bussey and Russell Ellington.  While Koenning will probably love Bussey for his (buzzword alert!) flyaroundability, he’ll likely love Martez Wilson and Ian Thomas more.  I could see a situation where Bussey, Ellington, Aaron Gress, and Evan Frierson are all fighting for 20 snaps per game.  (Note to Paul Petrino:  Guys like Nate Palmer and Justin Staples are currently buried deep on the linebacker depth chart with nothing to do.  Feel free to poach.)

The secondary will be interesting.  I could just as easily see a starting lineup of Hawthorne-Aikens-Edwards-Wilson as I could see Thomas-Sanni-Hopkins-Thrash (with Hawthorne back at receiver).  There’s not one player from last year’s secondary that sticks out as “well, you know he’s a lock to start”, so it will be interesting to see how it all shakes out under Koenning.  If I had to guess right now, I’d say that Hawthorne goes back to receiver, Miami Thomas starts at one corner, Garrett Edwards starts at strong safety, Walt Aikens starts at free safety, Tavon Wilson at the other corner, with Ashante Williams at the nickel.  But I could see all sorts of crazy changes that Koenning might find, like Ashante at safety and Sanni at the nickel, or Patrick Nixon-Youman taking a starting corner spot while Tommie Hopkins starts at strong safety as a redshirt freshman.  I’m pretty sure we know how things will shake out with the defensive line and the linebackers.  I have no clue what will happen in the secondary.

Let’s see – did I forget anyone?  Oh, defensive tackles.  Brent and Liuget.  The end.

Once they see the scheme, I think many people will be upset that we brought in another BBDB coordinator.  BBDB is great for eliminating the big play, but it only works when you hold people to field goals and force turnovers, something we were awful at over the last two seasons.  If we can’t force turnovers, Koenning will become Mike Schultz – from “the new guy will fix it” to “we were promised something better” in 3 short quarters of football.  But if we can force some turnovers, Koenning will grow into what I think he can be: the best Illini defensive coordinator since Denny Marcin.

OK, back to the 19 Point Plan now, with some hoops sprinkled in as well.  But not if we lose to Missouri tomorrow night.  If we lose to Missouri, you likely won’t hear from me for a week.  I don’t handle losing to Missouri well.