So I didn’t go to the game.  A sunny fall Saturday in Champaign during the greatest month of the year, and I stayed home.  This likely takes me out of the running for College Football Blog Newcomer of the Year award.

My son had his 8th grade football game rained out last week and rescheduled for Saturday, so I went to that instead.  And you know what?  Good football!  After an opening 3-and-out by the defense and a weak punt, Justin took a simple dive play 64 yards to the house.  Looked like Florida/LSU out there.  Adam, the corner starting opposite my son, picked off a third-down pass on the next drive and returned it for six, and the game was essentially over.  Devon, the QB, had a good game, throwing for one, running for one, and playing mistake-free football, and the Trojans romped to a 30-12 victory.  (And yes, I took Justin and Devon to the Penn State game along with my son.  You know, just in case they’re that good in 5 years. Is this an NCAA violation?)

And the way the late-morning/early-afternoon played out was kind of funny, in retrospect.  Gametracker says Michigan State has 3rd and 7 on my phone, scoreboard shows the Blue Devils have 3rd and 9 on the field.  Check the phone – 22 yard pass completion, MSU first down.  Check the field – Brandon got the sack, Blue Devils have to punt.  Check the phone, Larry Caper 17 yard run.  Check the field, Nick trips up the ballcarrier on the corner.  Maybe I should send some game tape to coach Disch.  Or Mallory.  Or whichever one is responsible for a sleepwalking first-quarter defense.  Trojans came to play on Saturday.  Illini didn’t.  Maybe Zook should promise a pizza party for an undefeated season.

Anyway, here we are. 1-4. In my wildest Rantoul dreams I would have never imagined this.  I expected the first 5 games to be bumpy – I didn’t expect 40 points in 4 FBS games. Take away the Illinois State game and we’re dead last in scoring offense.  119th out of 119 teams.  But hey, Jason Ford ran all over a bad FCS team, so we’re really 111th. Unbelievable.

It was interesting watching this game on tape instead of live.  I did some rewinding and some more rewinding, and came to the following 3 conclusions:

1. Eddie is not the answer. But you knew that.

Unfortunately, that was a near exact replica of the Eddie I saw in Rantoul.  Poor decisions, both on the option and in the passing game, and a knife-through-the-heart turnover.  I love how Eddie plays with a fire in his gut, but I almost never like the results.

Which begs the question (again): Where is Rantoul Juice?  He was confident then – now he looks frightened to throw an INT.  He was leading 75 yard drives in the two-minute drill – now he looks tentative.  Is it really just the removal of the red jersey and the threat of the pass rush? The truly offensive scheme?

Oh, how I wish Juice’s pass to Rejus on his first throw would have been 3 feet shorter.  That could have been the first sentence to a heck of a comeback story, yes?  “Juice Williams returns to the field and throws an 80 yard touchdown to Arrelious Benn on his first play”.  Build some confidence, build some momentum – I doubt we would have come back and tied the game, but it could have been a confidence builder going forward.  And yet, sadly, again, Juice was one yard away.

I’m obviously of the opinion that Juice needs to be the guy from here on out.  Mike Schultz needs to put away everything he’s ever learned about a ball control offense and open up the playbook – interceptions be damned.  Run the two minute drill from the outset at Indiana.  This defense isn’t going to keep you in games, so you’re going to have to outscore the opponent.  I’m sure it goes against every fiber of your being Mr. Schultz, but we’re going to have to play sandlot football from now until the end of the season.  Change the offensive signals on the sideline and just have Nathan Scheelhaase hold up one big sign that says “go get open”.

2. I’m naming myself Director of Player Personnel

When Martez went down and Zook said he was going with Frierson, I asked him to take a look at Gress-Thomas-Ellington.  And a big difference in our defense in the second half on Saturday?  The ever-running 8-cylinder engine that is Aaron Gress.  I start him this week and sit Frierson.

After watching high school game film of our recruits, I asked that we immediately put Walt Aikens in the two-deep at safety.  In fact, I put him in my two-deep back in May as the nickelback.  And who gave us a defensive spark in the second half?  Walter Aikens, that’s who.  His closing speed on that PBU was the most eye-popping defensive play of the game.

From the Spring Game to Camp Rantoul, I was a Mikel Man.  I put him at #1 on my depth chart, projecting him for the bulk of the carries this year, and, save for a few days in Rantoul when he dropped about 5 passes and I failed to belIeve, have been in his camp.  Our offensive spark in the second half?  Why, none other than Mikel LeShoure.  Admit it – that burst of speed down the sideline made you mumble to yourself “LeShoure has that kind of speed?”.

So I pretty much need to be in charge.  I think I’ve consistently shown that I know what I’m talking about when it comes to Illini Football.  And for this Saturday, I think we… what’s that?  Say again?  Ohhhhh, right.  That.

3. I can’t believe I didn’t see the approaching trainwreck of Ball Control Offense + Throw-Deep Quarterback.

I spent a lot of time in the offseason researching Mike Schultz.  And I spent a lot of time over the past 3 years watching Juice Williams throw the ball.  So I can’t believe I didn’t see how a short passing, balanced, turnover-free, ball control offense would play against every one of Juice’s strengths.  I simply believed that he would put it all together as a senior, bump his completion percentage towards 64%, and win some games averaging 7 yards per pass play.  And in Rantoul, wearing his red jersey with no chance of getting sacked – he did complete the 8 yard out to Jarred Fayson with regularity.  But now…

I know, Ted, you warned me.  But even then, we were just discussing Juice’s inaccuracy, and how he’d never be able to put it together.  I’m saying that I’m kicking myself for not seeing that an inaccurate QB, while difficult to deal with most offensive situations (but can be overcome), is a deathblow when running a conservative offense like Mike Schultz’s.  As I said last week, it works at TCU (to the tune of BCS-buster possibilities).  It just doesn’t work with Juice.

I’m now seeing this season for what it really is.  And I think a good comparison is Michigan’s offense from 2008.  Lloyd Carr had built a power offense and had recruited his skill players and linemen for just that – power running game, NFL passing game.  Run off left tackle, followed by counter trey, followed by 16 yard-out.  Then RichRod comes along with the spread, and suddenly the road grading offensive linemen are lost.  Blocking a linebacker out in space in the spread is a lot different than maul-and-haul, and their offense looked clueless as a result.

I’m starting to feel the same way about our offense this year.  Wideouts built for a vertical passing game trying to run little outs and curls.  And a Quarterback who needs two shots at completing an 18 yard slant (hey, we’ve got three downs!) trying to consistently read the cornerbacks on the dinks and read the linebackers on the dunks.

What took me so long, right?

My thinking before the season was that while it would be an adjustment (likely resulting in a 3-2 start to the season), eventually it would be a machine, with Fayson and Benn racking up YAC’s, turnovers eliminated, and, most importantly, time of possession increasing, leaving our not-so-deep defense fresh and ready.

And now we’re 111th in scoring offense.

Where do we go from here?  I can’t touch that one today.  No credibility.  But if you’d like my thoughts on the Wide Receivers, I will tell you that I think Jack Ramsey should be getting more looks on third down when…