1. To me, this defense has the thinnest of thin margins.  Keep everyone healthy and get everyone back from current injuries/suspensions, and this defense will surprise a lot of people.  Lose a Brent here and a Hardeman there, and things will go south quickly.  If the defense is Pilcher-Brent-Liuget-James, Ellington-M. Wilson-I. Thomas, and T. Wilson-Hicks-Edwards-Hardeman, then I feel really, really good about winning our last 7 games next fall.  If Brent is suspended for a long time, or if Hardeman can’t go, or if *woodknock* someone listed above gets injured, then the points could pile up quickly on the wrong side of the scoreboard.

2. The key to Zook’s D, of course, is the middle linebacker.  So it looks like we’ll go into the 2009 season with the key to the entire defense being Martez Wilson.  The good news? He’s probably one of the 10 most gifted athletes in college football (height, weight, speed, agility, etc.).  He’ll be a freak at the combine in two years.  The bad news?  He did a whole lotta thinkin’ last year.  As in, hesitate for 3/4ths of a second trying to remember your assignment when the guard is pulling… and by the time you react, the ball carrier is gone. I really, really want to stay positive, realizing that junior year J Leman was light years ahead of early sophomore year J Leman.  But the 40 yard run broken off by Mikel LeShoure in the video I linked in the last post?  Guess who missed him in the hole.

3. In the secondary, the two halves balance themselves out.  As excited and bullish as I am towards the cornerbacks, I am equally scared and bearish on the safeties.  Dere Hicks really came on last year, but Garrett Edwards really faded at the end of the year.  Tavon Wilson could be Vontae II (except with actual interceptions), but Donsay Hardeman too often thinks big hit and missed at least 3 floating INTs last year.  Miami Thomas could provide a fantastic 3rd DB in our nickel scheme, but the most probable 3rd safety is yet-to-play-a-down-back-there Supo Sanni.  Travon Bellamy brings his on-field experience back to the cornerback position, but Bo Flowers keeps trying to tackle like the :24 second mark of this video. Three steps forward, three steps back.

4. If Jerry Brown can keep his grades in order (a huge IF, if you believe the smoke signals), we could actually improve at Defensive End, even though we lost Will Davis and Derek Walker.  Pilcher is essentially a returning starter, Antonio James showed he can be a run stopper from the DE position, and Brown + Nurse could be a pretty lethal 3rd down pass rush tandem.  Same goes for the D-Tackles.  Corey Liuget only has 2 more years before he’s off the the NFL, Josh Brent might join him in that same draft, and Sirod Williams – if he’s fully recovered from his ACL surgery – could be a huge factor on 3rd and goal from the 2.

5. See a theme here?  The word “if” is showing up all over the place.  Never a good sign.  Something as simple as Jerry Brown not making grades, Donsay Hardeman choosing to not risk another neck injury, and Josh Brent getting behind the wheel again, and I might slash 2 or 3 wins off my season prediction.  Razor thin.  But if Hardeman is healthy and Tez lives up to his athleticism at MLB…….